Week 17 NFL Bets

Week 16's picks were on Twitter, but not the blog.  Here's how I did in week 15 and 16....

Week 15

Minnesota +3 at St. Louis: +7 Units

Chicago vs Green Bay over 43: -7 Units

San Fransisco +5 at New England: +2 Units

New York Jets +$110 at Tennessee: -1 Unit

Week 15 Record: 2-2

Season to Date Record: 25-25

Week 16 Winnings: +1 Unit

Season to Date Winnings: -7 Units

Week 16

Oakland +9 at Carolina: -8 Units

Minnesota +7.5 vs Houston: +4 Units

Chicago -7 at Arizona: +5 Units

Baltimore +$110 vs New York Giants: +2.2 Units

Week 16 Record: 3-1

Season to Date Record: 28-26

Week 16 Winnings: +3.2 Units

Season to Date Winnings: -4.8 Units

Season to Date Statistics

Record ATS 23-25

Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-8

Betting Favorites ATS: 9-9

Betting Underdogs ATS: 6-4

Betting Overs: 1-5

Betting Unders: 5-5

Here's my Week 17 picks....

Lock of the Week (8-8 Record)

Washington -3 vs Dallas: 6 Units

I'm basing this wager on my belief that no road team is capable of winning in FedEx field this Sunday.  Yes, that's right, I believe that for just this week that stadium will be so loud and the Redskins so juiced (figuratively) that for one game they will be unbeatable.  With the NFC East crown on the line and the Redskins and RGIII currently the talk of the conference Washington is feeling high and I just don't see them losing to the Cowboys who still have plenty of choke left in them.  

Other Games (15-17 Record)

Indianapolis +7 vs Houston: 5 Units

Houston just isn't as good as most people thought they were several weeks ago when they were 8-1.  Since then they've needed Overtime to defeat the god-awful Lions and Jaguars, got destroyed by the Patriots, and lost handily to the Vikings.  Arian Foster has been held to less than 50 yards rushing in 3 out of his last 4 games.  Indianapolis, though clearly not as talented as the Texans, has an upward pointing arrow, as they'll now be getting their inspirational leader Chuck Pagano back at head coach and like the Redskins, they'll be at home and fighting for playoff position (they need a win to avoid having to play at New England in the first round of the playoffs).

Chicago at Detroit Under 45: 5 Units

With Chicago's top two RBs (Matt Forte and Michael Bush) both injured that will put the Bears in the precarious position of passing more than they'd like, and they do not fair well against the Lions' pass rush, specifically Cliff Avril and Kyle VandenBosch.  While I'll be rooting heartily for Calvin Johnson to break the 2000 yard receiving barrier, he'll have to do it against the two starting CBs on the NFC's Pro Bowl roster--Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings.  This should be a low scoring affair as I see both defenses holding the trump cards over the other team's offensive strengths.

Upset Special: (8-8 Record)

Philadelphia +$250 at New York Giants: 1 Unit

Here is a week where I see absolutely no reason to bet ANY underdog straight up because I don't believe a single one of them has a chance to beat their counterpart.  But since it's my tradition to always pick one, I will carry it on.  I like the value in betting the Eagles, who now get a motivated Michael Vick playing for a contract next season vs a Giants team who has seemingly mailed it in for the year.  

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 15 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 14...

New England -3.5 over Houston: +5 Units
Washington vs Baltimore Under 47.5: -5 Units
Seattle -10 vs Arizona: +1 Unit
Minnesota +$130 vs Chicago: +3.9 Units

Week 14 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 23-23
Week 14 Winnings: +4.9 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -8 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 19-23
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 7-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 8-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-4
Betting Unders: 5-5

Here's my Week 15 picks...

Lock of the Week (7-7 Record)
Minnesota +3 at St. Louis: 7 Units
It seems that with Percy Harvin on IR that Christian Ponder has regressed a little bit, leading the Vikings to run the ball heavily.  This is not a bad thing as Adrian Peterson needs 134 yards per game the last 3 games to go over 2000 rushing yards on the season.  Though the Rams do rank 10th in the NFL in rush defense, Adrian Peterson on turf is dangerous.  With Matt Khalil solidifying himself as one of the better young tackles in the NFL, I see the Vikings running on to the left side early and often.  Look for Jared Allen, who has 9 sacks on the year, to attack QB Sam Bradford, who has been sacked 31 times, 12th most in the NFL.

Other Games (12-16 Record)
Chicago vs Green Bay Over 43: 7 Units
I like the odds of some points being scored in this one.  Chicago's defense, which has been stellar over the years under Lovie Smith, has declined rapidly.  Without Brian Urlacher, and with the play of both starting safeties slipping lately, the Bears figure to be in trouble vs the Packers' high octane passing game.  Randall Cobb has emerged as a go-to reciever, Greg Jennings is back and healthy, and Jermichael Finley has found some passes recently after a horrible start to the season.  Brandon Marshall has been vocal this week about having a big day, and I think he's going to back up the talk with a multiple touchdown performance.

San Fransisco +5 at New England: 2 Units
I think after the blowout win over Houston last week that so many people will jump on the Patriots, meaning this line could become even more attractive to 49ers fans.  I'll take it now.  The 49er defense isn't going to lay an egg like the Texan's defense did last week.  Though Tom Brady can make any team's defense look silly, the 49ers will be so much more prepared for this game.  I think the team with the last possession could win on a field goal.

Upset Special (7-7 Record)
New York Jets +$110 at Tennessee: 1 Unit
This pick came down to the Cowboys over Steelers in Dallas or this game.  Well, the Cowboys suck at home and although I have very little to say about Jets/Titans because I don't care enough to watch one of the worst MNF games in recent memory, I do think the Jets are a marginally better team and so I'll pick them to win.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 14 NFL Bets

I had Week 13 on Twitter so let's look at how the last two weeks have gone...

Week 12
Pittsburgh at Cleveland Under 38: +6 Units
Indianapolis at Buffalo Under 51: +2 Units
Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: -5 Units
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: +4 Units

Week 12 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 18-22
Week 12 Winnings: +7 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -7.7 Units

Week 13
New England at Miami Over 51: -7 Units
New York Giants at Washington Over 51: -5 Units
Kansas City +5.5 vs Carolina: +3 Units
Washington +$140 vs New York Giants: +2.8 Units

Week 13 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 20-22
Week 13 Winnings: -6.2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -13.9 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 17-22
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 6-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-4
Betting Unders: 5-4

Here's my Week 14 bets...

Lock of the Week (6-7 Record)
New England -3.5 vs Houston: 5 Units
This is a tough week and it took me a long time to come up with a LotW for Week 14.  I'm seeing Houston playing far too many close games against teams they should be destroying lately, and meanwhile the Patriot's defense has come together the last two weeks on the road, allowing less than 20 points in both contests.  I've spoken this season about Tom Brady's remarkable record at home and the Pats are 7-4-1 ATS this season overall (the Texans are better at 8-4, however).  Considering that Houston has not played well in its few prime time contests I like the savvy Patriots at home and to cover a relatively small spread.

Other Games (11-15 Record)
Washington vs Baltimore Under 47.5: 5 Units
I'm going to base this off of what I saw last week from both teams.  Washington at home, although I correctly picked them to win,did not get their offense going.  The first TD was the result of a fortuitous fumble.  Baltimore struggled vs a beat-up Steeler team with no Rashaard Mendenhall or Ben Roethlisberger. The Redskins have the NFL's 4th best rushing defense to help stop the Raven's strongest suit, Ray Rice.  I like the Redskins to win another close, low-scoring game at home as they did last week against the Giants.

Seattle -10 vs Arizona: 1 Unit
I hate to do this to myself because I despise double digit spreads even though I give them sometimes.  I just don't see Arizona scoring a whole lot of points even with the absence of Brandon Browner.  Seattle still has an elite pass defense to combat Larry Fitzgerald.  But furthermore, Arizona has nobody to throw him the ball anyway.  Throw in Seattle's "12th Man" and it could be a long day for the Cardinals.  The Seahawks may only need two TDs to cover the 10 point spread.

Upset Special (6-7 Record)
Minnesota +$130 vs Chicago: 3 Units
Based on the Bears' injury situation this is not a good matchup.  Chicago may as well have open auditions for WRs.  I still have no idea what Jay Cutler is going to do in the event Brandon Marshall is not open, but I suspect he'll just throw him the ball anyway which, taking into account Jay's past, will probably result in a few turnovers (albeit might result in a couple Marshall ridiculous TDs too).  With no Brian Urlacher and the way the Bears' run defense reacted last week vs Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Petersen and Christian Ponder have got to be foaming at the mouth.

Week 12 NFL Bets

Again, I had my picks on Twitter last week but not on Blogger.  Here's how I did in Week 10 and 11...

Week 10
Pittsburgh at Kansas City Over 42: -6 Units
Chicago -1 vs Houston: -4 Units
New England -11 vs Buffalo: -2 Units
Cincinnati +$185 vs New York Giants: +1.85 Units

Week 10 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 15-21
Week 10 Winnings: -10.15 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -8.7 Units

Week 11
Chicago +6.5 vs Houston: -6 Units
Cincinnati -3 at Kansas City: +5 Units
New England at Indianapolis Under 54: -4 Units
Philadelphia +$170 vs Washington: -1 Unit

Week 11 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 16-24
Week 11 Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -14.7 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 14-19
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 4-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-8
Betting  Underdogs ATS: 2-3
Betting Overs: 1-2
Betting Unders: 3-4

Here's my Week 12 bets...

Lock of the Week (5-6 Record)
Pittsburgh at Cleveland under 38: 6 Units
Cleveland's Joe Haden figures to have his way with Ben Roethlisberger still ailing and the Steeler's passing game looking shaky.  But Pittsburgh is the team with the NFL's #1 ranked pass defense.  The Browns' 27 sacks is tied for 8th in the NFL and Steeler backup QB Byron Leftwich looked to have hurt his ribs last week against  the Ravens.  If the Browns can turn the Steelers into a one-dimensional running team, they can keep the score close and the total low.

Other Games (9-13 Record)
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Under 51.5: 2 Units
Here's what I did here: I looked for the highest total and decided to go under.  When I was winning money doing this thing, I won mostly by bucking the trend and taking underdogs and going under the totals.  This year I'm picking too many favorites.  My 3-4 record on Unders, sadly, is one of my better plays.  Other than that, not too much thought went into this which is why I'm only waging a measly 2 Units.

Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: 5 Units
I hate to pile on my team but until the Chiefs prove otherwise they are not capable of keeping a game close let alone winning one.  They are 0-5 at Arrowhead Stadium this year and 1-4 against the spread at home.  The Broncos are 3-2 ATS on the road and with a win can all but assure themselves the AFC West crown.  Peyton Manning will not let his teammates overlook the lowly Chiefs.

Upset Special (4-7 Record)
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: 4 Units
The Browns are even money against a beat up Steeler team.  They were able to build some confidence (albeit in a loss) against the Cowboys last week.  They pressured Tony Romo and wrecked the Dallas offense.  Leftwich is no Romo and the Browns should be able to attack him at will.  The Browns have suddenly found a running game lately too.  Trent Richardson has rushed for 122, 105, and 95 yards the last 3 games.  I feel pretty confident about this one.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 10 NFL Bets

While I did not post Week 9's picks to the blog, I did post them on Twitter.  Let's take a look back at Week 8 and Week 9...

Week 8
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: +10 Units
New Orleans +6 at Denver: -4 Units
Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5: +6 Units
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: +1.05 Units

Week 8 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 14-18
Week 8 Winnings: +13.05 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -10.55 Units

Week 9
Chicago -3.5 at Tennessee: +8 Units
Atlanta -3.5 at Dallas: +4 Units
Denver at Cincinnati Under 48: -3 Units
Cincinnati +$175 vs Denver: -1 Unit

Week 9 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 16-20
Week 9 Winnings: +12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +1.45 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 13-14
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 3-6
Betting Favorites (ATS): 5-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-2
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders 3-3

Here's my Week 10 Picks...

Lock of the Week (5-4 Record)
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City Over 42: 6 Units
Popular conspiracy among Chiefs fans is that former coach and current Steeler offensive coordinator Todd Haley would love to run up the score to spite his former employer.  Could you blame him?  On top of that, the Chiefs will be starting Javier Arenas now that they've released fizzled free agent signing Stanford Routt.  Arenas guarding Mike Wallace will be a disaster.  To boot, the Chiefs will have a new defensive playcaller as Romeo Crennel has stepped down as defensive coordinator.  But Pittsburgh won't reach the magic number 42 by themselves so Kansas City will have to score, and I think that can happen.

Other Games (8-10 Record)
Chicago -1 vs Houston: 4 Units
What scares me here is the Houston defensive line working the Chicago offensive line.  The Bears are going to have all kinds of trouble blocking JJ Watt, but it's far from breaking news that the Bears' offensive line stinks and yet they're still 7-1.  Jay Cutler and the passing game is feeling pressure to find its rhythm and this isn't going to be the ideal game to do that, but they feel the pressure to do so and I think they've got the confidence.  Prime time game; at home; possible Super Bowl preview.  Lovie Smith and Cutler are nothing if not arrogant and they'll put together a gameplan to pad their passing statistics--but even if that fails they could always rely on the stout duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush at running back and the best defense in the NFL.  Cool stat: the Bears' defense has allowed 9 touchdowns in 8 games.  It has also scored 7!

New England -11 vs Buffalo: 2 Units
I'm going way out of character here by betting on such a huge favorite which is why I'm lowering my normal betting amount.  Tom Brady and the Patriots simply OWN the Bills.  Since 2000 the Pats are 23-2 vs Buffalo and have not lost to them at home since 2000.  The Pats last 3 wins vs Buffalo have been by 24 points or more.

Upset Special (3-6 Record)
Cincinnati +$185 vs Giants: 1 Unit
I don't like the Bengals in this game, I just like the price.  +185 is pretty good odds for a moderately decent team featuring an out-of-this world player.  If the Bengals are going to have any chance in this game, they will need a monster game from AJ Green.  The trumpeted Giants' defense has surrendered at least 23 points in their last 3 games.  Cincinnati is reeling, losing 4 in a row after starting 3-1 so they are in desperation mode.  I think the Bengals will have the last possession of the game with a chance to go for the win and at +185 I'll take my chances.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 8 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 7...

Buffalo -3.5 vs Titans: -7 Units

Chicago vs Detroit Under 47.5: +5 Units

Jacksonville +6 vs Oakland: +5 Units

Cleveland +$120 vs Indianapolis: -1 Unit

Week 7 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 11-17
Week 7 Winnings: +2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -23.6 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 9-12
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 2-5
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 2-2

Here's my Week 8 picks...

Lock of the Week (3-4 Record)
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: 10 Units
When I first saw this line I thought my computer screen was broken; which is typically a clear indication to either 1) avoid the game at all costs or 2) bet the exact opposite of what you think will happen.  The Eagles have not looked good in any of their 3 wins and have looked even worse in all 3 of their losses.  Meanwhile the Falcons are the NFL's last undefeated team.  There are two reasons I believe the Eagles are favored even though they are not the better team.  First they are coming off a bye week and second Matt Ryan has not played well on the road in his career and Philadelphia is one of the harshest road stadiums in the NFL.  But the Falcons are also coming off a bye week and the Falcons have actually played better on the road this year than they have at home.  At the Georgia Dome Atlanta has outscored its opponents by only 11 points in 3 games.  In 3 away games, they hold a 47 point advantage.

Other Games (6-8 Record)

New Orleans +6 at Denver: 4 Units
Right off the bat I'll say I don't think the Saints are winning this game.  I think New Orleans has shown some minor signs of improvement the last couple weeks and now with Joe Vitt returning from suspension to be the interim coach I expect the Saints to gain just a bit of confidence.  If the game turns into a shootout (and with a 55.5 point total, that appears to be a strong possibility), I like Drew Brees' chances of keeping this game close.   I'll say this about the Saints' dismal season:  They may be a bad team but they appear to play hard every week.

Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5:  6 Units
It's one of those games where I believe one team is probably going to get shut out and I don't think the Home team is going to very many key offensive starters in the game during the 4th quarter, so they probably won't be pushing the pedal down.  With the Jag's best player (Maurice Jones-Drew) likely out for the season, they are going to depend more on second year starting QB Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't shown me much of anything positive. 

Upset Special (2-5 Record)
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: 1 Unit
Last week I said that the Raiders were just too awful of a team to give anybody 6 points and the Jaguars covered.  The way the Chiefs have been playing, I can't see how they can give any points at all.  After Matt Cassell's injury, Brady Quinn got the start vs the lowly Buccaneers and promptly turned in the lowest QBR (ESPN's version of QB rating) of any NFL QB for Week 6.  He was rewarded by being given the starting job for the remainder of the season.  The Chiefs are a team in disarray from top to bottom and on both sides of the ball.  The Raiders aren't much better but I like them vs a Kansas City team that has won just 3 of its last 13 games at Arrowhead Stadium (including playoffs, dating back to 2010).

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

NFL Week 7 Bets

Here is how I did in Week 6...

Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: -8 Units
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: -3 Units
San Diego -1 vs Denver: -2 Units
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: +3.4 Units

Week 6 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 9-15
Week 6 Winnings: -9.6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -25.6 Units 

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-11
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 2-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-5
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 7 Picks...

Lock of the Week (3-3 Record)
Buffalo -3.5 vs Titans: 7 Units
Though the Titans will get WR Kenny Britt back from injury, they are now without starting QB Jake Locker and RB Javon Ringer.  With the struggles of Chris Johnson this year, Ringer's injury is important.  Buffalo has only played two of their six games at home, so they should be ready to rock-and-roll, especially since they sit primed for playoff contention the second half of the season.  The Titans are 0-3 on the road this year and have not covered the point spread even once.  Look for the Bills to start fast using the three-headed monster at RB (CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and Tashard Choice) against the Titan's 24th ranked rushing defense.

Other Games (4-8 Record)
Chicago vs Detroit Under 47.5: 5 Units
The Lions have been slow starters this season but lead the NFL in 4th quarter scoring.  I'm looking for the Bears to jump ahead early, then run the ball effectively late in the game to milk the clock and take away Detroit's rhythm.  Chicago can run the ball when it chooses, averaging 4.1 ypc, ranking 11th in the NFL.  If the Bears choose to run, keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands late, and play their usual stout defense early, they'll win and keep the score low.

Jacksonville +6 at Oakland: 5 Units
I believe the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL and will be picking first in April's draft.  However, I don't think the Raiders are much better and teams as bad as Oakland should rarely give 6 points.  The Jaguars are 2-0 this season ATS on the road.

Upset Special (2-4 Record)
Cleveland +$120 at Indianapolis: 1 Unit
There aren't very many upsets I feel comfortable with this week but this is one I do like.  The Browns travel to Indianapolis as only 2.5 point 'dogs.    Though I haven't seen much of their play this year, I've heard rumblings that they don't look as bad as their record might indicate.  Some people believe Brandon Weeden is making progress and rumor is that Trent Richardson's injury is nothing scary.  Cleveland did defeat a decent Cincinnati squad last week so they will be looking to build upon that momentum.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Chiefs and New GM Have Their Work Cut Out

At this time the Kansas City Chiefs haven't officially fired GM Scott Pioli but I can't think of one reason why Clark Hunt would keep him.  Though Pioli clearly isn't the only reason the Chiefs currently sit at 1-5, he's a big (if not the biggest) reason for it.  Pioli simply hasn't put the right people in the right positions to win.

When Hunt officially begins his GM search (assuming he hasn't already), there are a few things I hope he considers--these are things about which fanbases, bloggers, and talk shows commonly gossip and my thoughts on them.

First, it is somewhat common for fans to think of local talent when searching for coaches and GMs.  Former Chiefs players and assistant coaches will no doubt be mentioned in the gossip columns.  Fans desire these guys perhaps because they are known quantities and they naturally fear the unknown, or maybe they want to believe that because the enjoyed the guy during his time in that city and watching him develop they think they'll enjoy him in his new capacity upon his return.  It's risky for fans to make that assumption.  Most importantly, I don't want Clark Hunt to narrow his search only to former Kansas City players and assistant coaches because a better candidate might be overlooked.  Furthermore, fans want to like the GM, and I fear that Clark Hunt, in the wake of the fiasco that was Scott Pioli, might make a hire in attempt to endear the GM to the fans.

Big mistake.

The best way to endear the GM to the fans is by winning football games.  If the Chiefs win a Super Bowl nobody is going to care whether the GM who built the team has Kansas City roots or not.  If Hunt believes that Al Davis' hypothetical nephew, a diehard, lifelong Raiders fan is the best person for the job, then that's the guy Kansas City needs.  The Chiefs and their community of fans want to win, so when entertaining GM candidates the very last thing on my mind is whether the candidate has a background in Kansas City or with the Chiefs.  I hope Clark Hunt feels the same way.  It is a huge pet peeve of mine to hear pining for So-and-So because he "knows what Kansas City needs" or "understands what it's like to be a Chief."  Give me somebody who knows how to build a winner and that's all I care about.

Concerning the talk of Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, Jon Gruden (or any other former successful coach), I'm really lukewarm on the idea, if I had to be honest.  I spent several minutes today brainstorming highly successful, Championship winning coaches who were highly sought out and hired by other teams.  Most of those guys were failures in their new city.  Whether it be Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, George Seifert, or Dick Vermeil, it seems NFL guys have trouble re-creating the magic of Super Bowls Past.  In fact, I only thought of three guys who moved over to new teams and had success and none of them were in the NFL.  The most obvious such hire was Phil Jackson, who won six NBA titles with Chicago before taking over the Lakers and winning four more.  In MLB, Tony LaRussa won a World Series with Oakland then two more with St. Louis and Jim Leyland was a Series winning manager with the Marlins and has sustained regular season and some moderate post-season success with Detroit.

It appears prima facia that the way to go is to hire the young up-and-comer; the next "Bill Cowher" instead of the first one.  I understand that is much easier said than done, but I hope it is something that Clark Hunt takes into consideration--for both GM and Head Coach (since we know there's no way the Chiefs can bring back Romeo Crennell for 2013).

That said, I have an unusual albeit enticing idea that could be the jackpot of the century if Hunt were somehow able to pull it off.  It would be my dream scenario to hire on Bill Cowher (who coincidentally has roots in Kansas City, serving as the defensive coordinator under Marty Schottenheimer) to come in and coach the Chiefs for just three years.  He would pick the GM, who would serve in that role in name only because almost undoubtedly Cowher would want to choose his own talent.  But part of his job description would be to groom his own replacement--Bill Cowher, as head football coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, would be responsible for finding the next Mike Tomlin.  Since it is somewhat doubtful Clark Hunt is capable of finding such a person, it would be ideal for him to hire a person who could not only tutor his own replacement, but hold down the fort until such a time his replacement is ready.

Am I dreaming, or could that actually happen?

Moving along to on-the-field issues there is no doubt in my mind the Chiefs have a plethora of talented football players.  As a fan of the Chiefs, it would be easy for a reader to call it blind faith, but I know it to be true because several highly respected national NFL media-men have stated similar opinions.  These would include Brian Billick, Peter King, Hub Arkush, and Bill Cowher.  But if the Chiefs are so talented then why are they 1-5?

The entire roster equals less than the sum of its parts.

And that's a huge problem because what it tells me is that there are talented players on the roster who really aren't trying, don't care, or are otherwise distracted by something else other than winning games.  Kansas City's next GM has to target these players and make some difficult decisions about them.  Perhaps some trades or difficult cuts have to be made.  Maybe a long-term contract or two has to be swallowed.  I've never been in the Chiefs locker room or watched a practice so I wouldn't know where to begin, but I know if I were a consultant to the GM I'd really want to know if the Chiefs have any chemistry problems and I want to know whose players are who are causing the problems.

Clark Hunt, along with his next general manager, have their work cut out.

Week 6 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 5...

Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: -7
Carolina -3 vs Seattle: -5 Units
New England -6.5 vs Denver: +1 Unit
San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: -1 Unit

Week 5 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 8-12
Week 5 Winnings: -12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -16 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-8
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-2
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 6 picks...

Lock of the Week (3-2 Record)
Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: 8 Units
It is rarely my strategy to pick huge favorites and even more rare to lay this large of a wager, but I'm impressed with the Falcons this season, especially at home.  Three out of their five wins have been by 7 points or more (ironically the two close games were both at home).  The Raiders are coming off a bye week as well as a blowout loss to Denver.  While they are healthy and well-rested, they simply lack the talent to hang with Atlanta.  Between 2007 and 2010, the road underdog is 14-18 ATS when coming off a bye week.

Other Games (4-6 Record)
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: 3 Units
It's time I admit the Ravens are actually much better than I anticipated they'd be.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't the liabilities I predicted (due to injury in Reed's case and age in both cases).  I've referred to Tony Romo as a "mistake prone QB," and the Ravens are an opportunistic if unspectacular defense.  When betting against a team with a great pass rusher (ie the Cowboys and Demarcus Ware), I like to know the health of the opposition's offensive line, and Baltimore lists only Jah Reid as questionable and they have allowed 13 sacks this season, good enough for 9th in the NFL.  I think Dallas still has a lot to prove and this is going to be a bad week to do it on the road in Baltimore.

San Diego -1 vs Denver: 2 Units
The Broncos' 17th ranked rushing offense hits the road vs the Chargers' 5th ranked rushing defense, which I believe is going to mitigate the Willis McGahee's effectiveness and make Denver a one-dimensional offense.  That's not necessarily a bad thing when your one-dimensional offense is led by Peyton Manning.  Look for Eric Weddle, who already has a sack, a forced fumble, and two interceptions in 2012, to come up with a couple of big turnovers to sway the game into San Diego's favor.

Upset Special (1-4 Record)
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: 2 Units
A suspicious line of only 3.5 points leads to believe Vegas is trying to sneak one past us bettors.  Houston almost unarguably looks to be the best team in the NFL this season.  The talented Packers have underachieved, no doubt, but this looks to be one of those games where oddsmakers see a desperate club led by an elite quarterback making a statement on prime time television.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 5 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Week 4....

Minnesota +4 at Detroit: +5 Units

Oakland +7 at Denver: -3 Units

Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: -1 Unit

New York Giants (+$125) at Philadelphia: -4 Units

Week 4 Record: 1-3

Season to Date Record: 7-9

Week 4 Winnings: -3 Units

Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units

Season to Date Stats

Record ATS: 6-6

Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-3

Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1

Betting Underdogs (ATS): 3-3

Betting Overs: 1-1

Betting Unders: 1-1

Here are my Week 5 Picks...

Lock of the Week (3-1 Record)

Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: 7 Units

At first this appears to be a trap but I really don't see the Jaguars scoring a ton of points in this game--in fact, I believe the Bears could well shut out Jacksonville.  Blaine Gabbert has been disappointing as the team's franchise player, and WRs Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon have done little to help.  Jacksonville's one offensive star, Maurice Jones-Drew, is neutralized by the Bear's 3rd ranked run defense, which is allowing only 67.2 yards/game.  The one scare factor for me on this one, is that Chicago's defense could just as well score multiple touchdowns, as they did against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  

Other Games (3-5)

Carolina -3 vs Seattle: 5 Units

Seattle's Russell Wilson is suddenly struggling and Seattle has to take that dreaded coast-to-coast flight (though they are aided by the fact it is an afternoon 3:05 CT kickoff).   Though Cam Newton and the Panthers are only 1-3, I feel they are better (on paper) than they've shown so far and I expect them to pick it up soon.  They were able to establish the running game last week vs the tough Falcons, and found ways to introduce both DeAngelo williams and Jonathan Stewart into the game.  But Newton led the team in rushing again--which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Seattle is also 0-2 ATS in road games this year.

New England -6.5 vs Denver: 1 Unit

I'm going with a lower amount on this one because I smell the faint scent of a trap.  After that blowout last week of Buffalo, it's hard to avoid jumping on the New England bandwagon.  Denver has experience already this year vs stronger opponents, as they've already beaten Pittsburgh and lost to Houston and Atlanta.  Everybody knows Tom Brady has an unbelievable record at home as the quarterback of the Patriots, but he is also great against the spread.  Since 2010 the Patriots are 11-5-1 ATS at home.  6.5 points doesn't seem like a difficult number to cover for Brady at home, especially vs a team I perceive to be just a shade above average. 

Upset Special (1-3 Record)

San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: 1 Unit

This one pains me because I don't believe in Phillip Rivers, Norv Turner, or the Chargers in any way, shape, or form.  However, I just don't understand why oddsmakers keep favoring the 0-4 Saints when they are clearly discombobulated without their stalwart head coach and slimy former defensive coordinator.  The Saints' defense isn't defending anybody, giving up a league worst 463 yards per game, and their four loses have come against the 2-2 Redskins, 1-3 Panthers, 1-3 Chiefs, and 2-2 Packers (who haven't looked good in 3 out of those 4 games).  The Chargers haven't exactly set the world on fire but at this juncture there is no doubt they are the better team.

Follow me on Twitter @JimScheffres

Week 4 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Weeks 2 and 3....

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: -8 Units
New Orleans at Carolina over 51: +5 Units
Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: +3 Units
Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: -2 Units

Week 2 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 3-5
Week 2 Winnings: -2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -6 Units

Season to Date Stats
ATS: 3-3
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 0-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-0
Betting Unders: 0-1

San Fransisco at Minnesota Under 42.5: +8 Units
Kansas City at New Orleans Over 53: -8 Units
Buffalo -3 at Cleveland: +2 Units
Atlanta (+150) at San Diego: +3 Units

Week 3 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 6-6
Week 3 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -1 Unit

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 5-4
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-1

Finally, on to Week 4....

Lock of the Week (2-1 Record)
Minnesota +4 at Detroit: 5 Units
I am in the boat full of people who believes Detroit is going take a big step back this year.  The defense lacks discipline, giving the opposing offense free first downs.  When the offense has two weapons like Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson it's going to be tough enough to stop without the freebies.  The Vikings offensive line man-handled the best defensive line in the NFL last week (San Fransisco) and it'll be interesting to watch how they fare against a talented yet undisciplined line on Detroit.  The Vikings' Jared Allen will help neutralize the Detroit passing attack.

Other Games (3-3 Record)
Oakland +7 at Denver: 3 Units
I'm starting to feel that Denver isn't going to be as good as many have felt, though they are tough at home, as always.  After Peyton Manning's atrocious first half last week vs Atlanta and the way Oakland surprised Pittsburgh, I like the Raider's chances of keeping this game close on the road.  As good as Manning has been throughout his career, he isn't nearly as effective this year without the threat of a running game or a Pro Bowl receiver.

Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: 1 Unit
In a game that will pit the NFL's best rushing offense against the best rushing defense, I give a slight advantage to the home team.  Perhaps all the Chiefs needed after being blown out twice to start the season was some confidence, and they got that last week, picking up a road win at New Orleans.  In 2011 the Chiefs started 0-3 then moved to 4-3.  Justin Houston has been able to solidify the Chiefs' pass rush, and a mistake prone Phillip Rivers vs a good pass rush in a hostile road environment is dangerous territory for the Chargers.

Upset Special (1-2 Record)
New York Giants (+125) at Philadelphia: 4 Units
I can't remember the last time I've seen a quarterback take as much of a physical beating as Michael Vick is taking through 3 games in 2012 and he should fear for his life this week against the best pass rushing defensive line in the league.  The Eagles are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and I expect the Giants to force a few more.  Philadelphia cannot continue winning with a negative turnover ratio and these pass blocking problems.  Look for the trend to continue this week and for the Giants to pull off a mild divisional upset.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Replacement Referee Storyline is Overplayed

Lately, I can't check Twitter or Facebook, watch five minutes of ESPN or NFL Network, or talk about football with anybody at work without hearing/reading a complaint about the replacement referees.  That storyline has played its course.  It's time to move on.

If you've ever criticized a call or badmouthed an NFL official, you have little room to complain now.  The "real" refs are better than the replacements, of course, but you were going to complain about them too if they were on the field the first few weeks of the 2012 season.

I began watching football in approximately 1993, and for the better part of the past 19 years I've heard a thousand angry NFL fans bitch about blown calls.  I've heard dozens of people claim their blind grandma could have made a better, more accurate call.   Now, all of the sudden, those same refs who sucked for 19 years are god's gift to the NFL? 

I call B.S.

Sports fans are always looking for something to complain about.  Maybe it's out of jealousy, I don't know, but it doesn't matter who plays, coaches, officiates, or commishes, you are going to nitpick and critique everybody, all the time.

The real refs have been notoriously bad at important times.  They cost the Seattle Seahawks a Super Bowl victory in Detroit, when the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger's goaline dive--which clearly fell 10-12 inches short of the endzone--was ruled a touchdown.  More recently, just last season, a miraculous trick play which resulted in a Johnny Knox punt return touchdown for the Bears, was called back on a phantom hold, the 49ers were able to beat the Lions aided by a bad spot from a ref, Andy Reid of the Eagles was forced to waste a challenge on an obvious forward pass ruling, the NFL admitted to a multitude of blown calls that many thought screwed over both teams in last year's Saints-Lions playoff game, and a bad roughing the passer call wiped out a Cam Newton interception and directly led to a Panther's touchdown against the Cardinals.  This is the tip of the iceberg of blown calls (by the "real" refs) having a huge effect on the outcome of NFL games. 

I like the real refs better than the replacements, and I hope they return to work soon (mostly because I want you all to shut up about how much you hate the replacements).

I don't want to hear one more bogus assertion that the replacement refs are putting player's safety in risky situations either.  The players are ultimately responsible for their own and each other's safety.  Do you mean to tell me that defensive players are intentionally delivering helmet-to-helmet blows because they believe a replacement ref is less likely to throw a flag?  That's asinine.  I have noticed that games in 2012 seem to be a little "more chippy" than the average 2011 game, but I don't believe it to be a serious threat to player's safety and I don't believe the officials are anything above "slightly" responsible. 

I do believe and sincerely hope that the speed of NFL games increases once the regular refs return, because I think the replacements take a little bit too long to make decisions.  However, I think the correct call has been made with far more frequency than the incorrect call.  A couple instances of unprofessionalism have occurred in the form of a Saints fan with photos of himself wearing a Drew Brees jersey on his facebook page failing to declare it a conflict of interest for him to officiate a Saint's game, and one ref purportedly wishing LeSean McCoy a good game to help his fantasy team.  There is no excuse for those two instances and that is all the news I need to declare myself ready for the real refs to return.

The calls being made on the field have absolutely nothing to do with it.

Tidbit Topics: Pioli, Cutler

Pioli's Priorities Are Horrendously Misguided

The Kansas City Star's top sports columnist, Kent Baab, has now written two articles in a 9 month span that have blown me away.  Back in January Baab revealed the awful work environment that Chiefs' GM Scott Pioli has helped to create around Arrowhead Stadium.  And yesterday, Baab continued, describing Pioli's efforts to further micromanage all aspects of both football and non-football related activities.  Baab's stories have made national headlines, capturing the attention of NFL fans around the country.  Assuming these stories are fact and not one journalist's opinion, Pioli might be considered amongst the worst executives in all of sports.  This kind of secretive workplace clearly hasn't worked in Pioli's four seasons in Kansas City.  It's been a peeve of mine for years when sports journalists state that certain transactions couldn't be made because a particular GM could not deal with the backlash from fans and ticket holders (an example might be trading a star player to the team's division rival or choosing not to sign a free agent in demand by the fanbase).  It simply is not the job of the GM to worry about those types of problems--let the team's public relations and sales/marketing executives work on ways to spin it to the fans.  If Pioli believes in a certain coach or player (or doesn't and chooses to let him walk) then he shouldn't waste more than two minutes explaining a decision.  The Chiefs went into the 2012 season with question marks at several positions on the field and after an 0-2 start, those questions have multiplied.  Pioli has far greater problems to concentrate on, and now, because his priorities are so badly misguided, his new biggest problem might be lack of a job.

Bear's Cutler is out of Excuses

Jay Cutler is the second most polarizing player in the NFL behind only Tim Tebow and it's been a frustrating bunch of seasons for him in Chicago.  Since he joined the team in 2009, the team, its fans, and even Cutler himself have had excuse after excuse for why they haven't won anything of any significance with Cutler captaining the Bears' offense.  Prior to joining Chicago, Cutler apologists point to Denver's subpar defense as the reason the Broncos never made the playoffs with Cutler.  His first few seasons with Chicago, the excuse was a lack of established receiving targets.  Later, it was a poor offensive line and a delusional offensive coordinator.  The Bears' defense has been and is expected to be well above league average, the Bears fired Mike Martz, and they traded for Brandon Marshall and drafted Alshon Jeffrey.  While true their offensive line leaves much to be desired (particularly at left tackle where 7th round pick JaMarcus Webb has been horrendous in 2012), it is the job of an elite quarterback to overcome his team's shortcomings.  Is Jay Cutler an elite quarterback?  The Bears and a large percentage of the fanbase purport him to be.  But a QB who can only win games with a great defense, ingenious coordinator, All-Pro wide receivers, and a stout line allowing him six to seven seconds to throw every play, isn't elite--he's the proverbial "game manager."  The Bears have given Cutler all they are going to give him; if he doesn't produce multiple playoff wins this season then I'm going to believe those Jeff George comparisons that were made in 2009 are accurate.

Week 2 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Week 1...
San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: +5 Units
Tennessee +5 vs New England: -3 Units
Buffalo at New York Jets under 38.5: -3 Units
Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: -3 Units

Week 1 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 1-3
Week 1 Winnings: -4 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units

Season to Date Stats:
ATS: 1-2
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-1
Betting Favorites: 0-0
Betting Underdogs: 1-1
Betting Overs: 0-0
Betting Unders: 0-1

Now for this week's picks....

Lock of the Week (1-0 Season Record)

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: 8 Units

Honestly, I'm not putting a whole lot of thought into this one other than my belief that Robert Griffin III is going to put up big numbers all year in a Mike Shannahan coached offense with a plethora of competent receivers and the Rams' defense just isn't that impressive.  I like the addition of Cortland Finnegan and it appears Chris Long may finally be reaching his potential, but nobody else is scary.  St. Louis surrendered 7.4  yards per passing attempt last week (albeit vs a good Detroit offense), and I think RGIII is capable of running up the score in the Edward Jones Dome.

Other Games (0-2 Season Record)

New Orleans at Carolina Over 51: 5 Units

The Saints have big problems; most notably, their defense can't stop a nose bleed.  I don't see Cam Newton and Co. having any trouble dropping 26 points on the defenseless Saints in the home opener. Meanwhile, I like what Carolina has done to beef up their run defense, mostly by drafting Luke Kuechly; but Jon Beason returns from injury as well.  Unfortunately for Panthers, New Orleans isn't going to be running too much and after the awful way the Saints played last week vs Washington and with the knowledge they can't afford to fall to 0-2, Drew Brees will have the Saints' offense in high gear too.

Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: 3 Units
I like Miami as a home dog vs the Raiders, who have a short week of preparation after playing the late night Monday Night game and now have to fly coast to coast and visit the Dolphins.  I don't expect Oakland to struggle as badly on special teams this week, but I think the Dolphins will keep the game close against a likely fatigued opponent.  

Upset Special (0-1 Season Record)

Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: 2 Units
Neither team can afford to go 0-2 if it has playoff aspirations so there's no doubt in my mind both teams will be ready to play Sunday.  Based strictly on the injury situation, I give a big edge to the Chiefs.  A defense that got torched by the Falcons last week was missing 4 starters and 2 key reserves (with a 3rd string Dime CB getting the start and the assignment of guarding Julio Jones).  This week star CB Brandon Flowers and All-Pro OLB Tamba Hali return which will make a huge difference on the defensive side of the ball.  For the Bills, Fred Jackson will miss the game after an injury last week.  Since signing the huge contract midway through last season Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 1-9 record as the starting QB of the Bills and has thrown 12 TDs and 19 interceptions.  I'm betting on a completely different KC defense showing up in Buffalo this week.

Follow me on Twitter @JimScheffres

2012 NFL Week 1 Bets

2012 NFL Week 1 Bets

Following two pretty good years which saw me gain +47.5 combined UNITS ($4,750 if you bet $100 on every single game I picked)--albeit I was +46 one year and +1.5 the next--I'm back at it again for 2012 and eager to make my Twitter followers some money.  In case you are new to my picks, here is a quick rundown:

• Every week I pick 4 games.  I bet 3 games against the point spread.  Those 3 games could be winners or over/unders.  My 4th game is always longshot bet.  I bet an underdog to win straight up (ATS).  
• I keep track of my overall record season-to-date and my record in each category
• The categories are: Lock of the Week (the game on which I'm placing the largest wager), Other Games, and Upset Special (my ATS game).  I'll also keep track of my winnings (hopefully not losings).
•  I'll provide a brief summary of the reason for my pick, though sometimes if I'm short for time I only tweet the picks with no explanations.
• My bets are in Units.  Take your minimum bet and multiply by the Unit number.  So, if the absolute minimum you would ever consider betting on a game is $50 and I am going with 4 Units, then I would suggest you bet $200 on that game. 
• I encourage Blog Comments and Twitter replies and Re-Tweets!

Lock of the Week

San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
My take on the 49ers is a little weird, but I basically think they are just as good a team and possibly better than last year, but their record won't reflect that.  They've made some upgrades on the offense, and I like the addition of LaMichael James much more than I do Randy Moss.  I think their defense is still good, but it was just so great last season, and I can't see a repeat of that in 2012.  I remember having some Twitter conversations with people last year who thought the Niners were the 2011 version of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs:  A good team with a good record who played over its head and will fall back to Earth the next season.  The Chiefs went from 10-6 to 7-9.  At any rate, I believe the Packers are going to win, but I like the 49ers to hang close to enough to cover.  

Other Games

Tennessee +5 vs New England: 3 Units
This is going to be one of those games where I am picking the exact opposite of what I actually believe because of the suspiciousness of the line.  I picked New England to go 14-2 and win the AFC and I have Tennessee as one of the worst teams in football--in spite many of the experts liking them as a sleeper.  I think the Titans are going to have one of the worst passing games in the NFL, with a first year starter at QB, no WR better than Kenny Britt, and the belief they can run at will with Chris Johnson.  To me, the Patriots should win this game by 14, which is EXACTLY why I like the Titans +5.  Makes complete sense, right?

Buffalo at New York Jets Under 38.5: 3 Units
I simply do not see the Jets scoring very many points this season and I do believe the Bills defense is improved to the point they could move into the top 12 or possibly top 10 in the league due to a great pass rush up front.  If the Bills jump ahead early (and I could see that happening in spite of their best WR Stevie Johnson being listed as doubtful), and they force the Jets into passing situations the game could be out of hand in a hurry.  Jet's coach Rex Ryan self proclaims as the "best defensive coach in the NFL."  You know what, try winning something of significance first.  Although, I must admit, they still have a good defense there which is why I like the under--I think the Bills will have a tough time putting points on the board in a raucous stadium on the road, too.

Upset Special

Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: 3 Units
I think the Jets are going to be a bona fide train wreck this season and I've got the Bills making the playoffs as a wild card (only at 9-7 and just barely in, but better than New York).  The Jets have been able to disguise Mark Sanchez's fallacies at QB in recent years due to a strong running game and defense.  But Shonn Green saw his attempts and yard per carry dip considerably in the last three regular season games of 2011 (all losses) and I don't trust the Jet's offense resting on his shoulders in 2012.  The Bills meanwhile made some upgrades on defense and I expect Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to disrupt Sanchez's rhythm all day.

2012 NFL Preview

2012 NFL Preview

by @JimScheffres

I haven't been doing this for a few years because it seems everybody and their brother has an NFL preview and it might get old.  I do enjoy doing these types of things so I'm starting it up again.  I tried signing into my FoxSports account and discovered my blog there had been deleted!  Nice of them to notify me they were clearing space of their servers.  I had years worth of my writing saved there and I'd have loved to make copies.  So this will be my first post on the new blog; and even though I'm only one paragraph in, I'm already seeing some great advantages to hosting on Google over FoxSports.  I hope you enjoy reading as much as I enjoy writing.

+Top Conf Seed (Home Field Advantage)
**Second Conf Seed (First Round Bye)
*Wild Card

AFC

EAST
New England Patriots (13-3) +
Buffalo Bills (9-7)*
New York Jets (7-9)
Miami Dolphins (2-14)

WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6)*
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
Oakland Raiders (5-11)

NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (6-10)

SOUTH
Houston Texans (12-4)**
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

NFC

EAST
New York Giants (11-5)**
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)*
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Washington Redskins (5-11)

WEST
San Fransisco 49ers (9-7)
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
Arizona Cardinals (6-10)

NORTH
Green Bay Packers (11-5)+
Chicago Bears (11-5)*
Detroit Lions (6-10)
Minnesota Vikings (5-11)

SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
Tampa Bay Bucs (6-10)

Playoffs

Chiefs over Bills, Broncos over Steelers
Eagles over Falcons, Bears over 49ers

Patriots over Broncos, Texans over Chiefs
Giants over Eagles, Packers over Bears

Patriots over Texans
Packers over Giants

Packers over Patriots