Week 4 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Weeks 2 and 3....

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: -8 Units
New Orleans at Carolina over 51: +5 Units
Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: +3 Units
Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: -2 Units

Week 2 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 3-5
Week 2 Winnings: -2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -6 Units

Season to Date Stats
ATS: 3-3
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 0-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-0
Betting Unders: 0-1

San Fransisco at Minnesota Under 42.5: +8 Units
Kansas City at New Orleans Over 53: -8 Units
Buffalo -3 at Cleveland: +2 Units
Atlanta (+150) at San Diego: +3 Units

Week 3 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 6-6
Week 3 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -1 Unit

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 5-4
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-1

Finally, on to Week 4....

Lock of the Week (2-1 Record)
Minnesota +4 at Detroit: 5 Units
I am in the boat full of people who believes Detroit is going take a big step back this year.  The defense lacks discipline, giving the opposing offense free first downs.  When the offense has two weapons like Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson it's going to be tough enough to stop without the freebies.  The Vikings offensive line man-handled the best defensive line in the NFL last week (San Fransisco) and it'll be interesting to watch how they fare against a talented yet undisciplined line on Detroit.  The Vikings' Jared Allen will help neutralize the Detroit passing attack.

Other Games (3-3 Record)
Oakland +7 at Denver: 3 Units
I'm starting to feel that Denver isn't going to be as good as many have felt, though they are tough at home, as always.  After Peyton Manning's atrocious first half last week vs Atlanta and the way Oakland surprised Pittsburgh, I like the Raider's chances of keeping this game close on the road.  As good as Manning has been throughout his career, he isn't nearly as effective this year without the threat of a running game or a Pro Bowl receiver.

Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: 1 Unit
In a game that will pit the NFL's best rushing offense against the best rushing defense, I give a slight advantage to the home team.  Perhaps all the Chiefs needed after being blown out twice to start the season was some confidence, and they got that last week, picking up a road win at New Orleans.  In 2011 the Chiefs started 0-3 then moved to 4-3.  Justin Houston has been able to solidify the Chiefs' pass rush, and a mistake prone Phillip Rivers vs a good pass rush in a hostile road environment is dangerous territory for the Chargers.

Upset Special (1-2 Record)
New York Giants (+125) at Philadelphia: 4 Units
I can't remember the last time I've seen a quarterback take as much of a physical beating as Michael Vick is taking through 3 games in 2012 and he should fear for his life this week against the best pass rushing defensive line in the league.  The Eagles are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and I expect the Giants to force a few more.  Philadelphia cannot continue winning with a negative turnover ratio and these pass blocking problems.  Look for the trend to continue this week and for the Giants to pull off a mild divisional upset.

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