Minnesota +4 at Detroit: +5 Units
Oakland +7 at Denver: -3 Units
Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: -1 Unit
New York Giants (+$125) at Philadelphia: -4 Units
Week 4 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 7-9
Week 4 Winnings: -3 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units
Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 6-6
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-3
Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-1
Here are my Week 5 Picks...
Lock of the Week (3-1 Record)
Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: 7 Units
At first this appears to be a trap but I really don't see the Jaguars scoring a ton of points in this game--in fact, I believe the Bears could well shut out Jacksonville. Blaine Gabbert has been disappointing as the team's franchise player, and WRs Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon have done little to help. Jacksonville's one offensive star, Maurice Jones-Drew, is neutralized by the Bear's 3rd ranked run defense, which is allowing only 67.2 yards/game. The one scare factor for me on this one, is that Chicago's defense could just as well score multiple touchdowns, as they did against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
Other Games (3-5)
Carolina -3 vs Seattle: 5 Units
Seattle's Russell Wilson is suddenly struggling and Seattle has to take that dreaded coast-to-coast flight (though they are aided by the fact it is an afternoon 3:05 CT kickoff). Though Cam Newton and the Panthers are only 1-3, I feel they are better (on paper) than they've shown so far and I expect them to pick it up soon. They were able to establish the running game last week vs the tough Falcons, and found ways to introduce both DeAngelo williams and Jonathan Stewart into the game. But Newton led the team in rushing again--which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Seattle is also 0-2 ATS in road games this year.
New England -6.5 vs Denver: 1 Unit
I'm going with a lower amount on this one because I smell the faint scent of a trap. After that blowout last week of Buffalo, it's hard to avoid jumping on the New England bandwagon. Denver has experience already this year vs stronger opponents, as they've already beaten Pittsburgh and lost to Houston and Atlanta. Everybody knows Tom Brady has an unbelievable record at home as the quarterback of the Patriots, but he is also great against the spread. Since 2010 the Patriots are 11-5-1 ATS at home. 6.5 points doesn't seem like a difficult number to cover for Brady at home, especially vs a team I perceive to be just a shade above average.
Upset Special (1-3 Record)
San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: 1 Unit
This one pains me because I don't believe in Phillip Rivers, Norv Turner, or the Chargers in any way, shape, or form. However, I just don't understand why oddsmakers keep favoring the 0-4 Saints when they are clearly discombobulated without their stalwart head coach and slimy former defensive coordinator. The Saints' defense isn't defending anybody, giving up a league worst 463 yards per game, and their four loses have come against the 2-2 Redskins, 1-3 Panthers, 1-3 Chiefs, and 2-2 Packers (who haven't looked good in 3 out of those 4 games). The Chargers haven't exactly set the world on fire but at this juncture there is no doubt they are the better team.
Follow me on Twitter @JimScheffres
No comments:
Post a Comment