NFL Week 7 Bets

Here is how I did in Week 6...

Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: -8 Units
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: -3 Units
San Diego -1 vs Denver: -2 Units
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: +3.4 Units

Week 6 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 9-15
Week 6 Winnings: -9.6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -25.6 Units 

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-11
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 2-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-5
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 7 Picks...

Lock of the Week (3-3 Record)
Buffalo -3.5 vs Titans: 7 Units
Though the Titans will get WR Kenny Britt back from injury, they are now without starting QB Jake Locker and RB Javon Ringer.  With the struggles of Chris Johnson this year, Ringer's injury is important.  Buffalo has only played two of their six games at home, so they should be ready to rock-and-roll, especially since they sit primed for playoff contention the second half of the season.  The Titans are 0-3 on the road this year and have not covered the point spread even once.  Look for the Bills to start fast using the three-headed monster at RB (CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and Tashard Choice) against the Titan's 24th ranked rushing defense.

Other Games (4-8 Record)
Chicago vs Detroit Under 47.5: 5 Units
The Lions have been slow starters this season but lead the NFL in 4th quarter scoring.  I'm looking for the Bears to jump ahead early, then run the ball effectively late in the game to milk the clock and take away Detroit's rhythm.  Chicago can run the ball when it chooses, averaging 4.1 ypc, ranking 11th in the NFL.  If the Bears choose to run, keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands late, and play their usual stout defense early, they'll win and keep the score low.

Jacksonville +6 at Oakland: 5 Units
I believe the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL and will be picking first in April's draft.  However, I don't think the Raiders are much better and teams as bad as Oakland should rarely give 6 points.  The Jaguars are 2-0 this season ATS on the road.

Upset Special (2-4 Record)
Cleveland +$120 at Indianapolis: 1 Unit
There aren't very many upsets I feel comfortable with this week but this is one I do like.  The Browns travel to Indianapolis as only 2.5 point 'dogs.    Though I haven't seen much of their play this year, I've heard rumblings that they don't look as bad as their record might indicate.  Some people believe Brandon Weeden is making progress and rumor is that Trent Richardson's injury is nothing scary.  Cleveland did defeat a decent Cincinnati squad last week so they will be looking to build upon that momentum.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres