Week 6 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 5...

Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: -7
Carolina -3 vs Seattle: -5 Units
New England -6.5 vs Denver: +1 Unit
San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: -1 Unit

Week 5 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 8-12
Week 5 Winnings: -12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -16 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-8
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-2
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 6 picks...

Lock of the Week (3-2 Record)
Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: 8 Units
It is rarely my strategy to pick huge favorites and even more rare to lay this large of a wager, but I'm impressed with the Falcons this season, especially at home.  Three out of their five wins have been by 7 points or more (ironically the two close games were both at home).  The Raiders are coming off a bye week as well as a blowout loss to Denver.  While they are healthy and well-rested, they simply lack the talent to hang with Atlanta.  Between 2007 and 2010, the road underdog is 14-18 ATS when coming off a bye week.

Other Games (4-6 Record)
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: 3 Units
It's time I admit the Ravens are actually much better than I anticipated they'd be.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't the liabilities I predicted (due to injury in Reed's case and age in both cases).  I've referred to Tony Romo as a "mistake prone QB," and the Ravens are an opportunistic if unspectacular defense.  When betting against a team with a great pass rusher (ie the Cowboys and Demarcus Ware), I like to know the health of the opposition's offensive line, and Baltimore lists only Jah Reid as questionable and they have allowed 13 sacks this season, good enough for 9th in the NFL.  I think Dallas still has a lot to prove and this is going to be a bad week to do it on the road in Baltimore.

San Diego -1 vs Denver: 2 Units
The Broncos' 17th ranked rushing offense hits the road vs the Chargers' 5th ranked rushing defense, which I believe is going to mitigate the Willis McGahee's effectiveness and make Denver a one-dimensional offense.  That's not necessarily a bad thing when your one-dimensional offense is led by Peyton Manning.  Look for Eric Weddle, who already has a sack, a forced fumble, and two interceptions in 2012, to come up with a couple of big turnovers to sway the game into San Diego's favor.

Upset Special (1-4 Record)
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: 2 Units
A suspicious line of only 3.5 points leads to believe Vegas is trying to sneak one past us bettors.  Houston almost unarguably looks to be the best team in the NFL this season.  The talented Packers have underachieved, no doubt, but this looks to be one of those games where oddsmakers see a desperate club led by an elite quarterback making a statement on prime time television.

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