2012 NFL Week 1 Bets
Following two pretty good years which saw me gain +47.5 combined UNITS ($4,750 if you bet $100 on every single game I picked)--albeit I was +46 one year and +1.5 the next--I'm back at it again for 2012 and eager to make my Twitter followers some money. In case you are new to my picks, here is a quick rundown:
- Every week I pick 4 games. I bet 3 games against the point spread. Those 3 games could be winners or over/unders. My 4th game is always longshot bet. I bet an underdog to win straight up (ATS).
- I keep track of my overall record season-to-date and my record in each category
- The categories are: Lock of the Week (the game on which I'm placing the largest wager), Other Games, and Upset Special (my ATS game). I'll also keep track of my winnings (hopefully not losings).
- I'll provide a brief summary of the reason for my pick, though sometimes if I'm short for time I only tweet the picks with no explanations.
- My bets are in Units. Take your minimum bet and multiply by the Unit number. So, if the absolute minimum you would ever consider betting on a game is $50 and I am going with 4 Units, then I would suggest you bet $200 on that game.
- I encourage Blog Comments and Twitter replies and Re-Tweets!
Lock of the Week
San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
My take on the 49ers is a little weird, but I basically think they are just as good a team and possibly better than last year, but their record won't reflect that. They've made some upgrades on the offense, and I like the addition of LaMichael James much more than I do Randy Moss. I think their defense is still good, but it was just so great last season, and I can't see a repeat of that in 2012. I remember having some Twitter conversations with people last year who thought the Niners were the 2011 version of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs: A good team with a good record who played over its head and will fall back to Earth the next season. The Chiefs went from 10-6 to 7-9. At any rate, I believe the Packers are going to win, but I like the 49ers to hang close to enough to cover.
My take on the 49ers is a little weird, but I basically think they are just as good a team and possibly better than last year, but their record won't reflect that. They've made some upgrades on the offense, and I like the addition of LaMichael James much more than I do Randy Moss. I think their defense is still good, but it was just so great last season, and I can't see a repeat of that in 2012. I remember having some Twitter conversations with people last year who thought the Niners were the 2011 version of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs: A good team with a good record who played over its head and will fall back to Earth the next season. The Chiefs went from 10-6 to 7-9. At any rate, I believe the Packers are going to win, but I like the 49ers to hang close to enough to cover.
Other Games
Tennessee +5 vs New England: 3 Units
This is going to be one of those games where I am picking the exact opposite of what I actually believe because of the suspiciousness of the line. I picked New England to go 14-2 and win the AFC and I have Tennessee as one of the worst teams in football--in spite many of the experts liking them as a sleeper. I think the Titans are going to have one of the worst passing games in the NFL, with a first year starter at QB, no WR better than Kenny Britt, and the belief they can run at will with Chris Johnson. To me, the Patriots should win this game by 14, which is EXACTLY why I like the Titans +5. Makes complete sense, right?
Buffalo at New York Jets Under 38.5: 3 Units
I simply do not see the Jets scoring very many points this season and I do believe the Bills defense is improved to the point they could move into the top 12 or possibly top 10 in the league due to a great pass rush up front. If the Bills jump ahead early (and I could see that happening in spite of their best WR Stevie Johnson being listed as doubtful), and they force the Jets into passing situations the game could be out of hand in a hurry. Jet's coach Rex Ryan self proclaims as the "best defensive coach in the NFL." You know what, try winning something of significance first. Although, I must admit, they still have a good defense there which is why I like the under--I think the Bills will have a tough time putting points on the board in a raucous stadium on the road, too.
This is going to be one of those games where I am picking the exact opposite of what I actually believe because of the suspiciousness of the line. I picked New England to go 14-2 and win the AFC and I have Tennessee as one of the worst teams in football--in spite many of the experts liking them as a sleeper. I think the Titans are going to have one of the worst passing games in the NFL, with a first year starter at QB, no WR better than Kenny Britt, and the belief they can run at will with Chris Johnson. To me, the Patriots should win this game by 14, which is EXACTLY why I like the Titans +5. Makes complete sense, right?
Buffalo at New York Jets Under 38.5: 3 Units
I simply do not see the Jets scoring very many points this season and I do believe the Bills defense is improved to the point they could move into the top 12 or possibly top 10 in the league due to a great pass rush up front. If the Bills jump ahead early (and I could see that happening in spite of their best WR Stevie Johnson being listed as doubtful), and they force the Jets into passing situations the game could be out of hand in a hurry. Jet's coach Rex Ryan self proclaims as the "best defensive coach in the NFL." You know what, try winning something of significance first. Although, I must admit, they still have a good defense there which is why I like the under--I think the Bills will have a tough time putting points on the board in a raucous stadium on the road, too.
Upset Special
Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: 3 Units
I think the Jets are going to be a bona fide train wreck this season and I've got the Bills making the playoffs as a wild card (only at 9-7 and just barely in, but better than New York). The Jets have been able to disguise Mark Sanchez's fallacies at QB in recent years due to a strong running game and defense. But Shonn Green saw his attempts and yard per carry dip considerably in the last three regular season games of 2011 (all losses) and I don't trust the Jet's offense resting on his shoulders in 2012. The Bills meanwhile made some upgrades on defense and I expect Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to disrupt Sanchez's rhythm all day.
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