San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: +5 Units
Tennessee +5 vs New England: -3 Units
Buffalo at New York Jets under 38.5: -3 Units
Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: -3 Units
Week 1 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 1-3
Week 1 Winnings: -4 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units
Season to Date Stats:
ATS: 1-2
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-1
Betting Favorites: 0-0
Betting Underdogs: 1-1
Betting Overs: 0-0
Betting Unders: 0-1
Now for this week's picks....
Lock of the Week (1-0 Season Record)
Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: 8 Units
Honestly, I'm not putting a whole lot of thought into this one other than my belief that Robert Griffin III is going to put up big numbers all year in a Mike Shannahan coached offense with a plethora of competent receivers and the Rams' defense just isn't that impressive. I like the addition of Cortland Finnegan and it appears Chris Long may finally be reaching his potential, but nobody else is scary. St. Louis surrendered 7.4 yards per passing attempt last week (albeit vs a good Detroit offense), and I think RGIII is capable of running up the score in the Edward Jones Dome.
Other Games (0-2 Season Record)
New Orleans at Carolina Over 51: 5 Units
The Saints have big problems; most notably, their defense can't stop a nose bleed. I don't see Cam Newton and Co. having any trouble dropping 26 points on the defenseless Saints in the home opener. Meanwhile, I like what Carolina has done to beef up their run defense, mostly by drafting Luke Kuechly; but Jon Beason returns from injury as well. Unfortunately for Panthers, New Orleans isn't going to be running too much and after the awful way the Saints played last week vs Washington and with the knowledge they can't afford to fall to 0-2, Drew Brees will have the Saints' offense in high gear too.
Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: 3 Units
I like Miami as a home dog vs the Raiders, who have a short week of preparation after playing the late night Monday Night game and now have to fly coast to coast and visit the Dolphins. I don't expect Oakland to struggle as badly on special teams this week, but I think the Dolphins will keep the game close against a likely fatigued opponent.
Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: 3 Units
I like Miami as a home dog vs the Raiders, who have a short week of preparation after playing the late night Monday Night game and now have to fly coast to coast and visit the Dolphins. I don't expect Oakland to struggle as badly on special teams this week, but I think the Dolphins will keep the game close against a likely fatigued opponent.
Upset Special (0-1 Season Record)
Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: 2 UnitsNeither team can afford to go 0-2 if it has playoff aspirations so there's no doubt in my mind both teams will be ready to play Sunday. Based strictly on the injury situation, I give a big edge to the Chiefs. A defense that got torched by the Falcons last week was missing 4 starters and 2 key reserves (with a 3rd string Dime CB getting the start and the assignment of guarding Julio Jones). This week star CB Brandon Flowers and All-Pro OLB Tamba Hali return which will make a huge difference on the defensive side of the ball. For the Bills, Fred Jackson will miss the game after an injury last week. Since signing the huge contract midway through last season Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 1-9 record as the starting QB of the Bills and has thrown 12 TDs and 19 interceptions. I'm betting on a completely different KC defense showing up in Buffalo this week.
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