Week 14 NFL Bets

I had Week 13 on Twitter so let's look at how the last two weeks have gone...

Week 12
Pittsburgh at Cleveland Under 38: +6 Units
Indianapolis at Buffalo Under 51: +2 Units
Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: -5 Units
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: +4 Units

Week 12 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 18-22
Week 12 Winnings: +7 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -7.7 Units

Week 13
New England at Miami Over 51: -7 Units
New York Giants at Washington Over 51: -5 Units
Kansas City +5.5 vs Carolina: +3 Units
Washington +$140 vs New York Giants: +2.8 Units

Week 13 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 20-22
Week 13 Winnings: -6.2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -13.9 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 17-22
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 6-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-4
Betting Unders: 5-4

Here's my Week 14 bets...

Lock of the Week (6-7 Record)
New England -3.5 vs Houston: 5 Units
This is a tough week and it took me a long time to come up with a LotW for Week 14.  I'm seeing Houston playing far too many close games against teams they should be destroying lately, and meanwhile the Patriot's defense has come together the last two weeks on the road, allowing less than 20 points in both contests.  I've spoken this season about Tom Brady's remarkable record at home and the Pats are 7-4-1 ATS this season overall (the Texans are better at 8-4, however).  Considering that Houston has not played well in its few prime time contests I like the savvy Patriots at home and to cover a relatively small spread.

Other Games (11-15 Record)
Washington vs Baltimore Under 47.5: 5 Units
I'm going to base this off of what I saw last week from both teams.  Washington at home, although I correctly picked them to win,did not get their offense going.  The first TD was the result of a fortuitous fumble.  Baltimore struggled vs a beat-up Steeler team with no Rashaard Mendenhall or Ben Roethlisberger. The Redskins have the NFL's 4th best rushing defense to help stop the Raven's strongest suit, Ray Rice.  I like the Redskins to win another close, low-scoring game at home as they did last week against the Giants.

Seattle -10 vs Arizona: 1 Unit
I hate to do this to myself because I despise double digit spreads even though I give them sometimes.  I just don't see Arizona scoring a whole lot of points even with the absence of Brandon Browner.  Seattle still has an elite pass defense to combat Larry Fitzgerald.  But furthermore, Arizona has nobody to throw him the ball anyway.  Throw in Seattle's "12th Man" and it could be a long day for the Cardinals.  The Seahawks may only need two TDs to cover the 10 point spread.

Upset Special (6-7 Record)
Minnesota +$130 vs Chicago: 3 Units
Based on the Bears' injury situation this is not a good matchup.  Chicago may as well have open auditions for WRs.  I still have no idea what Jay Cutler is going to do in the event Brandon Marshall is not open, but I suspect he'll just throw him the ball anyway which, taking into account Jay's past, will probably result in a few turnovers (albeit might result in a couple Marshall ridiculous TDs too).  With no Brian Urlacher and the way the Bears' run defense reacted last week vs Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Petersen and Christian Ponder have got to be foaming at the mouth.