Week 12 NFL Bets

Again, I had my picks on Twitter last week but not on Blogger.  Here's how I did in Week 10 and 11...

Week 10
Pittsburgh at Kansas City Over 42: -6 Units
Chicago -1 vs Houston: -4 Units
New England -11 vs Buffalo: -2 Units
Cincinnati +$185 vs New York Giants: +1.85 Units

Week 10 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 15-21
Week 10 Winnings: -10.15 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -8.7 Units

Week 11
Chicago +6.5 vs Houston: -6 Units
Cincinnati -3 at Kansas City: +5 Units
New England at Indianapolis Under 54: -4 Units
Philadelphia +$170 vs Washington: -1 Unit

Week 11 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 16-24
Week 11 Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -14.7 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 14-19
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 4-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-8
Betting  Underdogs ATS: 2-3
Betting Overs: 1-2
Betting Unders: 3-4

Here's my Week 12 bets...

Lock of the Week (5-6 Record)
Pittsburgh at Cleveland under 38: 6 Units
Cleveland's Joe Haden figures to have his way with Ben Roethlisberger still ailing and the Steeler's passing game looking shaky.  But Pittsburgh is the team with the NFL's #1 ranked pass defense.  The Browns' 27 sacks is tied for 8th in the NFL and Steeler backup QB Byron Leftwich looked to have hurt his ribs last week against  the Ravens.  If the Browns can turn the Steelers into a one-dimensional running team, they can keep the score close and the total low.

Other Games (9-13 Record)
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Under 51.5: 2 Units
Here's what I did here: I looked for the highest total and decided to go under.  When I was winning money doing this thing, I won mostly by bucking the trend and taking underdogs and going under the totals.  This year I'm picking too many favorites.  My 3-4 record on Unders, sadly, is one of my better plays.  Other than that, not too much thought went into this which is why I'm only waging a measly 2 Units.

Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: 5 Units
I hate to pile on my team but until the Chiefs prove otherwise they are not capable of keeping a game close let alone winning one.  They are 0-5 at Arrowhead Stadium this year and 1-4 against the spread at home.  The Broncos are 3-2 ATS on the road and with a win can all but assure themselves the AFC West crown.  Peyton Manning will not let his teammates overlook the lowly Chiefs.

Upset Special (4-7 Record)
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: 4 Units
The Browns are even money against a beat up Steeler team.  They were able to build some confidence (albeit in a loss) against the Cowboys last week.  They pressured Tony Romo and wrecked the Dallas offense.  Leftwich is no Romo and the Browns should be able to attack him at will.  The Browns have suddenly found a running game lately too.  Trent Richardson has rushed for 122, 105, and 95 yards the last 3 games.  I feel pretty confident about this one.

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