Week 10 NFL Bets

While I did not post Week 9's picks to the blog, I did post them on Twitter.  Let's take a look back at Week 8 and Week 9...

Week 8
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: +10 Units
New Orleans +6 at Denver: -4 Units
Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5: +6 Units
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: +1.05 Units

Week 8 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 14-18
Week 8 Winnings: +13.05 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -10.55 Units

Week 9
Chicago -3.5 at Tennessee: +8 Units
Atlanta -3.5 at Dallas: +4 Units
Denver at Cincinnati Under 48: -3 Units
Cincinnati +$175 vs Denver: -1 Unit

Week 9 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 16-20
Week 9 Winnings: +12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +1.45 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 13-14
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 3-6
Betting Favorites (ATS): 5-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-2
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders 3-3

Here's my Week 10 Picks...

Lock of the Week (5-4 Record)
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City Over 42: 6 Units
Popular conspiracy among Chiefs fans is that former coach and current Steeler offensive coordinator Todd Haley would love to run up the score to spite his former employer.  Could you blame him?  On top of that, the Chiefs will be starting Javier Arenas now that they've released fizzled free agent signing Stanford Routt.  Arenas guarding Mike Wallace will be a disaster.  To boot, the Chiefs will have a new defensive playcaller as Romeo Crennel has stepped down as defensive coordinator.  But Pittsburgh won't reach the magic number 42 by themselves so Kansas City will have to score, and I think that can happen.

Other Games (8-10 Record)
Chicago -1 vs Houston: 4 Units
What scares me here is the Houston defensive line working the Chicago offensive line.  The Bears are going to have all kinds of trouble blocking JJ Watt, but it's far from breaking news that the Bears' offensive line stinks and yet they're still 7-1.  Jay Cutler and the passing game is feeling pressure to find its rhythm and this isn't going to be the ideal game to do that, but they feel the pressure to do so and I think they've got the confidence.  Prime time game; at home; possible Super Bowl preview.  Lovie Smith and Cutler are nothing if not arrogant and they'll put together a gameplan to pad their passing statistics--but even if that fails they could always rely on the stout duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush at running back and the best defense in the NFL.  Cool stat: the Bears' defense has allowed 9 touchdowns in 8 games.  It has also scored 7!

New England -11 vs Buffalo: 2 Units
I'm going way out of character here by betting on such a huge favorite which is why I'm lowering my normal betting amount.  Tom Brady and the Patriots simply OWN the Bills.  Since 2000 the Pats are 23-2 vs Buffalo and have not lost to them at home since 2000.  The Pats last 3 wins vs Buffalo have been by 24 points or more.

Upset Special (3-6 Record)
Cincinnati +$185 vs Giants: 1 Unit
I don't like the Bengals in this game, I just like the price.  +185 is pretty good odds for a moderately decent team featuring an out-of-this world player.  If the Bengals are going to have any chance in this game, they will need a monster game from AJ Green.  The trumpeted Giants' defense has surrendered at least 23 points in their last 3 games.  Cincinnati is reeling, losing 4 in a row after starting 3-1 so they are in desperation mode.  I think the Bengals will have the last possession of the game with a chance to go for the win and at +185 I'll take my chances.

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