Super Bowl Bets

Conference Championship bets were posted on Twitter but not on the blog.  So here's how I did the last two weeks....

Divisional Bets
Baltimore at Denver Over 46: +1 Unit
Green Bay +3 at San Fransisco: -5 Units
Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta: +4 Units
Houston at New England Over 47.5: +5 Units

Divisional Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 35-31
Divisional Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -0.2 Units
1 Unit = Your minimum bet (If the lowest you'd ever consider betting is $10 and I suggest 8 Units, then I would suggest betting $80.  If your minimum is $250, then I suggest betting $2,000)

Championship Bets
San Fransisco -4 vs Atlanta: Push
San Fransisco vs Atlanta Over 47.5: +3 Units
New England -7.5 vs Baltimore: -5 Units
New England vs Baltimore Over 49.5: -4 Units

Championship Record: 1-2-1
Season to Date Record: 36-33-1
Championship Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -6.2 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 31-31
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 12-10-1
Betting Underdogs ATS: 8-7
Betting Overs: 4-6
Betting Unders: 5-6

Here's my Super Bowl Bets....

San Francisco -3.5 vs Baltimore: 5 Units
SF vs Bal Under 47.5: 6 Units
I feel Baltimore getting some love and I'm a little surprised, however cautious.  I definitely feel the 49ers are clearly the better team.  The Ravens had moments all season long where they didn't look like a playoff team, then they got hot after Ray Lewis announces his retirement.  They are a well coached team with certain Hall of Famers at multiple levels on defense and several very good offensive weapons.  With an extra week off to rest his injury, I believe Aldon Smith will be back to dominating opposing offensive lines, which also bodes well for Justin Smith since neither have had a sack since Aldon's injury.  But it's not like the 49ers needed them with all the points they've been scoring.  San Fransisco has showed they can beat you in different ways.  If you don't respect Collin Kaepernick's ability to run, he can destroy you on the ground; if you take away his ability to get outside the tackles, Frank Gore can gash you up the middle; and if you stack the box expecting the run, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree can beat you on the seam.  This compliments one of the best defenses over the last two years.  You can keep Joe Flacco, quarterback extraordinaire.  He's mediocre and eventually it shows, despite his historic luck in the playoffs.  For the Ravens to have a chance they are going to need a few turnovers (which they've been getting this post-season) and Ray Rice to have a marvelous game.  Jim Harbaugh coached teams just don't turn the ball over, and Niner's defense is built to stop the run.  Interestingly, earlier this post-season I predicted both the 49ers and Packers would eventually be done in by awful field goal kickers.  The Ravens' rookie kicker has been most impressive this season, so it would be funny for my original prediction to come true now that I'm finally picking San Francisco to win.  I think this game will be close and low-scoring so it should be fun to watch.  I'm also betting the Under because despite all the compliments I just paid to the 'Frisco offense, you cannot underestimate what the fiery Ray Lewis is going to do in his final appearance in the NFL.  Baltimore has, in my opinion, 2 of the top 5 defensive players of all time in Lewis and Ed Reed, and Reed has never won a Super Bowl.  This Ravens defense is going to get after it--in fact, I'll go out on the limb and say they get a defensive score.  Last week I didn't think the Ravens could play with this team, but I've changed my mind.  They can keep the 49er offense is check, but they won't score enough points to win or hit the over.

San Francisco 23, Baltimore 16

Disclaimer: In real life, I would never fathom taking prop bets for many reasons, most notably because it requires little skill and is almost all luck.  But historically I've always taken two props for the Super Bowl.  So here it goes:

Super Bowl MVP: Michael Crabtree at +1400: 1 Unit
Total Interceptions for Ed Reed Over 0.5 at +300: 1 Unit

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