NFL Divisional Round Bets

Here's how I did in the Wild Card Round....

Cincinnati +4.5 at Houston: -5 Units
Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: -5 Units
Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: +1 Unit
Seattle -3 at Washington: +3 Units

Wild Card Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 32-30
Wild Card Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -5.8 Units
1 Unit = Your minimum bet (If the lowest you would ever consider betting is $10, and I suggest betting 8 Units, then I'd suggest betting $80.  If your minimum is $250, then I'm suggesting $2,000).



Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 27-28
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 12-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-6
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6

Here's my Division Round bets...

Baltimore at Denver Over 46: 1 Unit
I like Denver to win but I'm not sure about the 9.5 point spread. It seems like a lot to cover for a team who only had one win vs a better than .500 team in the regular season. Then again, that one win came against the Ravens. The Broncos and Ravens combined to go 18-12-2 vs the Over this season, so let's place a small wager there. It seems reasonable to me to expect both teams to score in the mid to upper 20's in the thin air in Denver and with unseasonably warm temperatures.

Green Bay +3 at San Francisco: 5 Units
It would be funny to me if this game were a closely battled matchup of whose kicker sucks the least. Mason Crosby and to a lesser extent David Akers are the two reasons I believe both these teams' postseasons will eventually end in defeats. But here, I feel that the hot offense and elite quarterback have the advantage in the playoffs, and in fact I do believe the Packers will win the game outright (and lose in the Super Bowl).

Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta: 4 Units
I might have considered raising the ante on this one or picking the Seahawks on the moneyline and it feels weird to admit the reason I won't do it is Chris Clemons' injury towards the end of the Washington game last week. Of the remaining teams, I like the Seahawks' defense the best (even better than the 49ers). Their secondary might be the only one capable of slowing down the Falcons' and Packers' passing game. But they are no slouch on offense either. Featuring Marshawn Lynch and a slew of underrated WRs, they could tear up the Falcons' 20th ranked rushing defense--a defense that also ranked 28th in sacks and now has John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux at less than 100%.

Houston at New England Over 47.5: 5 Units
I like the Patriots to cover the 9.5 points but I like the Over even better. A lot of people are talking about the way the Patriots blew the Texans away in their regular season meeting, and I hope I'm not falling prey to past performances, but I have this gut feeling of a Tom Brady 4 TD and Patriot 40 point performance looming. I've talked about the Patriot's record at home and how they put up enormous points. And don't get me wrong, Houston has the personnel to stop Brady, but I just don't think it's going to happen this week.

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