NFL Wild Card Bets

Here's how I did in Week 17....

Washington -3 vs Dallas: +6 Units
Indianapolis +7 vs Houston: +5 Units
Chicago at Detroit Under 45: -5 Units
Philadelphia +$250 at New York Giants: -1 Unit

Week 17 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 30-28
Week 17 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +0.2 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 25-26
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 10-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-4
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6

Here are my Wild Card Round Picks...

Cincinatti +4.5 at Houston: 5 Units
The Texans have fallen apart and have played pathetic football entering the playoffs.  I've been saying for 2-3 weeks now they will be a one-and-done in the postseason.  Here they are at home and garnered the team many consider to be the weakest AFC playoff qualifier.  But the Bengals' defense is solid and creates some matchup problems for Houston.  Vontaz Burfict and Manny Lawson will clean house against the run, where Arian Foster is suddenly playing like an undrafted free agent.  The Bengals racked up 51 sacks in the regular season, good enough for the third highest total in the NFL, and the Texans' offensive line (outside of Duane Brown) has been next to awful during this slump. I like the Bengals to win outright, but feel more confident taking the points.

Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
After that close game last week I feel pretty comfortable saying the Packers will win coming back home, but this line of 7.5 points surprises me.  I've been riding the Vikings big time late this season and I've been hitting.  We all know Adrian Peterson is averaging close to 200 yards rushing vs the Packers this season and that Green Bay is one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL.  So let's figure the Vikings aren't going to have any problem running the ball.  If the game is close, I'll take Blair Walsh in a FG contest over Mason Crosby any day of the week (Crosby is the main reason I don't think I can place the Packers in the Super Bowl).  Green Bay's offensive line allowed the most sacks in the NFL and they'll find Jared Allen lurking.  While I like the Vikings to cover the spread, when it comes to Christian Ponder having to make a tough throw on 3rd down, I like Green Bay at home to win those situations--and the game.

Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: 1 Unit
I'm on the fence on this one because Indy is another team I've played and made money.  However, the Colts have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL giving up an average of 5.1 yards per opponent attempt.  I expect Ray Rice to go beast mode on the Colts' defense today.  The Colts made this far mostly on the heels of excellent playcalling and coaching anyway--they are even less talented than the Bengals.  While I'm not particularly high on the Ravens this year (I think they are frauds) I believe Rice is a monster.

Seattle -3 at Washington: 3 Units
I'm looking forward to this game more than most casual fans actually.  The Seahawks and Pete Carroll intrigue me and I'm also a bandwagon RGIII fan.  I can't deny that Carroll is a pretty solid football coach and always seems to have the Seahawks ready for battle, but they are not a good road team.  They have however won their last two road games, beating the 10-6 Bears in Chicago and absolutely destroying the Bills.  Some researchers say the phenomena where west coast teams always lose when traveling east doesn't apply to night games (the Seahawks will be on 12:30pm Pacific time for their bout vs Washington whereas had the game started at noon ET, it'd be only 8:00am Pacific).  Like the Bal/Ind game, I also see a huge problem with Washington trying to contain Seattle's RB Marshawn Lynch, and I don't think a gimpy Robert Griffin will have much success running outside against a speedy Seahawks defense.

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