Conference Championship bets were posted on Twitter but not on the blog. So here's how I did the last two weeks....
Divisional Bets
Baltimore at Denver Over 46: +1 Unit
Green Bay +3 at San Fransisco: -5 Units
Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta: +4 Units
Houston at New England Over 47.5: +5 Units
Divisional Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 35-31
Divisional Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -0.2 Units
1 Unit = Your minimum bet (If the lowest you'd ever consider betting is $10 and I suggest 8 Units, then I would suggest betting $80. If your minimum is $250, then I suggest betting $2,000)
Championship Bets
San Fransisco -4 vs Atlanta: Push
San Fransisco vs Atlanta Over 47.5: +3 Units
New England -7.5 vs Baltimore: -5 Units
New England vs Baltimore Over 49.5: -4 Units
Championship Record: 1-2-1
Season to Date Record: 36-33-1
Championship Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -6.2 Units
Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 31-31
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 12-10-1
Betting Underdogs ATS: 8-7
Betting Overs: 4-6
Betting Unders: 5-6
Here's my Super Bowl Bets....
San Francisco -3.5 vs Baltimore: 5 Units
SF vs Bal Under 47.5: 6 Units
I feel Baltimore getting some love and I'm a little surprised, however cautious. I definitely feel the 49ers are clearly the better team. The Ravens had moments all season long where they didn't look like a playoff team, then they got hot after Ray Lewis announces his retirement. They are a well coached team with certain Hall of Famers at multiple levels on defense and several very good offensive weapons. With an extra week off to rest his injury, I believe Aldon Smith will be back to dominating opposing offensive lines, which also bodes well for Justin Smith since neither have had a sack since Aldon's injury. But it's not like the 49ers needed them with all the points they've been scoring. San Fransisco has showed they can beat you in different ways. If you don't respect Collin Kaepernick's ability to run, he can destroy you on the ground; if you take away his ability to get outside the tackles, Frank Gore can gash you up the middle; and if you stack the box expecting the run, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree can beat you on the seam. This compliments one of the best defenses over the last two years. You can keep Joe Flacco, quarterback extraordinaire. He's mediocre and eventually it shows, despite his historic luck in the playoffs. For the Ravens to have a chance they are going to need a few turnovers (which they've been getting this post-season) and Ray Rice to have a marvelous game. Jim Harbaugh coached teams just don't turn the ball over, and Niner's defense is built to stop the run. Interestingly, earlier this post-season I predicted both the 49ers and Packers would eventually be done in by awful field goal kickers. The Ravens' rookie kicker has been most impressive this season, so it would be funny for my original prediction to come true now that I'm finally picking San Francisco to win. I think this game will be close and low-scoring so it should be fun to watch. I'm also betting the Under because despite all the compliments I just paid to the 'Frisco offense, you cannot underestimate what the fiery Ray Lewis is going to do in his final appearance in the NFL. Baltimore has, in my opinion, 2 of the top 5 defensive players of all time in Lewis and Ed Reed, and Reed has never won a Super Bowl. This Ravens defense is going to get after it--in fact, I'll go out on the limb and say they get a defensive score. Last week I didn't think the Ravens could play with this team, but I've changed my mind. They can keep the 49er offense is check, but they won't score enough points to win or hit the over.
San Francisco 23, Baltimore 16
Disclaimer: In real life, I would never fathom taking prop bets for many reasons, most notably because it requires little skill and is almost all luck. But historically I've always taken two props for the Super Bowl. So here it goes:
Super Bowl MVP: Michael Crabtree at +1400: 1 Unit
Total Interceptions for Ed Reed Over 0.5 at +300: 1 Unit
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Thursday, January 10, 2013
NFL Divisional Round Bets
Here's how I did in the Wild Card Round....
Cincinnati +4.5 at Houston: -5 Units
Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: -5 Units
Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: +1 Unit
Seattle -3 at Washington: +3 Units
Wild Card Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 32-30
Wild Card Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -5.8 Units
1 Unit = Your minimum bet (If the lowest you would ever consider betting is $10, and I suggest betting 8 Units, then I'd suggest betting $80. If your minimum is $250, then I'm suggesting $2,000).
Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 27-28
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 12-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-6
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6
Here's my Division Round bets...
Baltimore at Denver Over 46: 1 Unit
I like Denver to win but I'm not sure about the 9.5 point spread. It seems like a lot to cover for a team who only had one win vs a better than .500 team in the regular season. Then again, that one win came against the Ravens. The Broncos and Ravens combined to go 18-12-2 vs the Over this season, so let's place a small wager there. It seems reasonable to me to expect both teams to score in the mid to upper 20's in the thin air in Denver and with unseasonably warm temperatures.
Green Bay +3 at San Francisco: 5 Units
It would be funny to me if this game were a closely battled matchup of whose kicker sucks the least. Mason Crosby and to a lesser extent David Akers are the two reasons I believe both these teams' postseasons will eventually end in defeats. But here, I feel that the hot offense and elite quarterback have the advantage in the playoffs, and in fact I do believe the Packers will win the game outright (and lose in the Super Bowl).
Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta: 4 Units
I might have considered raising the ante on this one or picking the Seahawks on the moneyline and it feels weird to admit the reason I won't do it is Chris Clemons' injury towards the end of the Washington game last week. Of the remaining teams, I like the Seahawks' defense the best (even better than the 49ers). Their secondary might be the only one capable of slowing down the Falcons' and Packers' passing game. But they are no slouch on offense either. Featuring Marshawn Lynch and a slew of underrated WRs, they could tear up the Falcons' 20th ranked rushing defense--a defense that also ranked 28th in sacks and now has John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux at less than 100%.
Houston at New England Over 47.5: 5 Units
I like the Patriots to cover the 9.5 points but I like the Over even better. A lot of people are talking about the way the Patriots blew the Texans away in their regular season meeting, and I hope I'm not falling prey to past performances, but I have this gut feeling of a Tom Brady 4 TD and Patriot 40 point performance looming. I've talked about the Patriot's record at home and how they put up enormous points. And don't get me wrong, Houston has the personnel to stop Brady, but I just don't think it's going to happen this week.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Cincinnati +4.5 at Houston: -5 Units
Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: -5 Units
Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: +1 Unit
Seattle -3 at Washington: +3 Units
Wild Card Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 32-30
Wild Card Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -5.8 Units
1 Unit = Your minimum bet (If the lowest you would ever consider betting is $10, and I suggest betting 8 Units, then I'd suggest betting $80. If your minimum is $250, then I'm suggesting $2,000).
Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 27-28
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 12-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-6
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6
Here's my Division Round bets...
Baltimore at Denver Over 46: 1 Unit
I like Denver to win but I'm not sure about the 9.5 point spread. It seems like a lot to cover for a team who only had one win vs a better than .500 team in the regular season. Then again, that one win came against the Ravens. The Broncos and Ravens combined to go 18-12-2 vs the Over this season, so let's place a small wager there. It seems reasonable to me to expect both teams to score in the mid to upper 20's in the thin air in Denver and with unseasonably warm temperatures.
Green Bay +3 at San Francisco: 5 Units
It would be funny to me if this game were a closely battled matchup of whose kicker sucks the least. Mason Crosby and to a lesser extent David Akers are the two reasons I believe both these teams' postseasons will eventually end in defeats. But here, I feel that the hot offense and elite quarterback have the advantage in the playoffs, and in fact I do believe the Packers will win the game outright (and lose in the Super Bowl).
Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta: 4 Units
I might have considered raising the ante on this one or picking the Seahawks on the moneyline and it feels weird to admit the reason I won't do it is Chris Clemons' injury towards the end of the Washington game last week. Of the remaining teams, I like the Seahawks' defense the best (even better than the 49ers). Their secondary might be the only one capable of slowing down the Falcons' and Packers' passing game. But they are no slouch on offense either. Featuring Marshawn Lynch and a slew of underrated WRs, they could tear up the Falcons' 20th ranked rushing defense--a defense that also ranked 28th in sacks and now has John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux at less than 100%.
Houston at New England Over 47.5: 5 Units
I like the Patriots to cover the 9.5 points but I like the Over even better. A lot of people are talking about the way the Patriots blew the Texans away in their regular season meeting, and I hope I'm not falling prey to past performances, but I have this gut feeling of a Tom Brady 4 TD and Patriot 40 point performance looming. I've talked about the Patriot's record at home and how they put up enormous points. And don't get me wrong, Houston has the personnel to stop Brady, but I just don't think it's going to happen this week.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Saturday, January 5, 2013
NFL Wild Card Bets
Here's how I did in Week 17....
Washington -3 vs Dallas: +6 Units
Indianapolis +7 vs Houston: +5 Units
Chicago at Detroit Under 45: -5 Units
Philadelphia +$250 at New York Giants: -1 Unit
Week 17 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 30-28
Week 17 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +0.2 Units
Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 25-26
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 10-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-4
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6
Here are my Wild Card Round Picks...
Cincinatti +4.5 at Houston: 5 Units
The Texans have fallen apart and have played pathetic football entering the playoffs. I've been saying for 2-3 weeks now they will be a one-and-done in the postseason. Here they are at home and garnered the team many consider to be the weakest AFC playoff qualifier. But the Bengals' defense is solid and creates some matchup problems for Houston. Vontaz Burfict and Manny Lawson will clean house against the run, where Arian Foster is suddenly playing like an undrafted free agent. The Bengals racked up 51 sacks in the regular season, good enough for the third highest total in the NFL, and the Texans' offensive line (outside of Duane Brown) has been next to awful during this slump. I like the Bengals to win outright, but feel more confident taking the points.
Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
After that close game last week I feel pretty comfortable saying the Packers will win coming back home, but this line of 7.5 points surprises me. I've been riding the Vikings big time late this season and I've been hitting. We all know Adrian Peterson is averaging close to 200 yards rushing vs the Packers this season and that Green Bay is one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL. So let's figure the Vikings aren't going to have any problem running the ball. If the game is close, I'll take Blair Walsh in a FG contest over Mason Crosby any day of the week (Crosby is the main reason I don't think I can place the Packers in the Super Bowl). Green Bay's offensive line allowed the most sacks in the NFL and they'll find Jared Allen lurking. While I like the Vikings to cover the spread, when it comes to Christian Ponder having to make a tough throw on 3rd down, I like Green Bay at home to win those situations--and the game.
Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: 1 Unit
I'm on the fence on this one because Indy is another team I've played and made money. However, the Colts have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL giving up an average of 5.1 yards per opponent attempt. I expect Ray Rice to go beast mode on the Colts' defense today. The Colts made this far mostly on the heels of excellent playcalling and coaching anyway--they are even less talented than the Bengals. While I'm not particularly high on the Ravens this year (I think they are frauds) I believe Rice is a monster.
Seattle -3 at Washington: 3 Units
I'm looking forward to this game more than most casual fans actually. The Seahawks and Pete Carroll intrigue me and I'm also a bandwagon RGIII fan. I can't deny that Carroll is a pretty solid football coach and always seems to have the Seahawks ready for battle, but they are not a good road team. They have however won their last two road games, beating the 10-6 Bears in Chicago and absolutely destroying the Bills. Some researchers say the phenomena where west coast teams always lose when traveling east doesn't apply to night games (the Seahawks will be on 12:30pm Pacific time for their bout vs Washington whereas had the game started at noon ET, it'd be only 8:00am Pacific). Like the Bal/Ind game, I also see a huge problem with Washington trying to contain Seattle's RB Marshawn Lynch, and I don't think a gimpy Robert Griffin will have much success running outside against a speedy Seahawks defense.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Washington -3 vs Dallas: +6 Units
Indianapolis +7 vs Houston: +5 Units
Chicago at Detroit Under 45: -5 Units
Philadelphia +$250 at New York Giants: -1 Unit
Week 17 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 30-28
Week 17 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +0.2 Units
Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 25-26
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-9
Betting Favorites ATS: 10-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 7-4
Betting Overs: 1-5
Betting Unders 5-6
Here are my Wild Card Round Picks...
Cincinatti +4.5 at Houston: 5 Units
The Texans have fallen apart and have played pathetic football entering the playoffs. I've been saying for 2-3 weeks now they will be a one-and-done in the postseason. Here they are at home and garnered the team many consider to be the weakest AFC playoff qualifier. But the Bengals' defense is solid and creates some matchup problems for Houston. Vontaz Burfict and Manny Lawson will clean house against the run, where Arian Foster is suddenly playing like an undrafted free agent. The Bengals racked up 51 sacks in the regular season, good enough for the third highest total in the NFL, and the Texans' offensive line (outside of Duane Brown) has been next to awful during this slump. I like the Bengals to win outright, but feel more confident taking the points.
Minnesota +7.5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
After that close game last week I feel pretty comfortable saying the Packers will win coming back home, but this line of 7.5 points surprises me. I've been riding the Vikings big time late this season and I've been hitting. We all know Adrian Peterson is averaging close to 200 yards rushing vs the Packers this season and that Green Bay is one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL. So let's figure the Vikings aren't going to have any problem running the ball. If the game is close, I'll take Blair Walsh in a FG contest over Mason Crosby any day of the week (Crosby is the main reason I don't think I can place the Packers in the Super Bowl). Green Bay's offensive line allowed the most sacks in the NFL and they'll find Jared Allen lurking. While I like the Vikings to cover the spread, when it comes to Christian Ponder having to make a tough throw on 3rd down, I like Green Bay at home to win those situations--and the game.
Baltimore -7 vs Indianapolis: 1 Unit
I'm on the fence on this one because Indy is another team I've played and made money. However, the Colts have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL giving up an average of 5.1 yards per opponent attempt. I expect Ray Rice to go beast mode on the Colts' defense today. The Colts made this far mostly on the heels of excellent playcalling and coaching anyway--they are even less talented than the Bengals. While I'm not particularly high on the Ravens this year (I think they are frauds) I believe Rice is a monster.
Seattle -3 at Washington: 3 Units
I'm looking forward to this game more than most casual fans actually. The Seahawks and Pete Carroll intrigue me and I'm also a bandwagon RGIII fan. I can't deny that Carroll is a pretty solid football coach and always seems to have the Seahawks ready for battle, but they are not a good road team. They have however won their last two road games, beating the 10-6 Bears in Chicago and absolutely destroying the Bills. Some researchers say the phenomena where west coast teams always lose when traveling east doesn't apply to night games (the Seahawks will be on 12:30pm Pacific time for their bout vs Washington whereas had the game started at noon ET, it'd be only 8:00am Pacific). Like the Bal/Ind game, I also see a huge problem with Washington trying to contain Seattle's RB Marshawn Lynch, and I don't think a gimpy Robert Griffin will have much success running outside against a speedy Seahawks defense.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
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