Week 8 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 7...

Buffalo -3.5 vs Titans: -7 Units

Chicago vs Detroit Under 47.5: +5 Units

Jacksonville +6 vs Oakland: +5 Units

Cleveland +$120 vs Indianapolis: -1 Unit

Week 7 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 11-17
Week 7 Winnings: +2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -23.6 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 9-12
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 2-5
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 2-2

Here's my Week 8 picks...

Lock of the Week (3-4 Record)
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: 10 Units
When I first saw this line I thought my computer screen was broken; which is typically a clear indication to either 1) avoid the game at all costs or 2) bet the exact opposite of what you think will happen.  The Eagles have not looked good in any of their 3 wins and have looked even worse in all 3 of their losses.  Meanwhile the Falcons are the NFL's last undefeated team.  There are two reasons I believe the Eagles are favored even though they are not the better team.  First they are coming off a bye week and second Matt Ryan has not played well on the road in his career and Philadelphia is one of the harshest road stadiums in the NFL.  But the Falcons are also coming off a bye week and the Falcons have actually played better on the road this year than they have at home.  At the Georgia Dome Atlanta has outscored its opponents by only 11 points in 3 games.  In 3 away games, they hold a 47 point advantage.

Other Games (6-8 Record)

New Orleans +6 at Denver: 4 Units
Right off the bat I'll say I don't think the Saints are winning this game.  I think New Orleans has shown some minor signs of improvement the last couple weeks and now with Joe Vitt returning from suspension to be the interim coach I expect the Saints to gain just a bit of confidence.  If the game turns into a shootout (and with a 55.5 point total, that appears to be a strong possibility), I like Drew Brees' chances of keeping this game close.   I'll say this about the Saints' dismal season:  They may be a bad team but they appear to play hard every week.

Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5:  6 Units
It's one of those games where I believe one team is probably going to get shut out and I don't think the Home team is going to very many key offensive starters in the game during the 4th quarter, so they probably won't be pushing the pedal down.  With the Jag's best player (Maurice Jones-Drew) likely out for the season, they are going to depend more on second year starting QB Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't shown me much of anything positive. 

Upset Special (2-5 Record)
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: 1 Unit
Last week I said that the Raiders were just too awful of a team to give anybody 6 points and the Jaguars covered.  The way the Chiefs have been playing, I can't see how they can give any points at all.  After Matt Cassell's injury, Brady Quinn got the start vs the lowly Buccaneers and promptly turned in the lowest QBR (ESPN's version of QB rating) of any NFL QB for Week 6.  He was rewarded by being given the starting job for the remainder of the season.  The Chiefs are a team in disarray from top to bottom and on both sides of the ball.  The Raiders aren't much better but I like them vs a Kansas City team that has won just 3 of its last 13 games at Arrowhead Stadium (including playoffs, dating back to 2010).

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

NFL Week 7 Bets

Here is how I did in Week 6...

Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: -8 Units
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: -3 Units
San Diego -1 vs Denver: -2 Units
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: +3.4 Units

Week 6 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 9-15
Week 6 Winnings: -9.6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -25.6 Units 

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-11
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 2-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-5
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 7 Picks...

Lock of the Week (3-3 Record)
Buffalo -3.5 vs Titans: 7 Units
Though the Titans will get WR Kenny Britt back from injury, they are now without starting QB Jake Locker and RB Javon Ringer.  With the struggles of Chris Johnson this year, Ringer's injury is important.  Buffalo has only played two of their six games at home, so they should be ready to rock-and-roll, especially since they sit primed for playoff contention the second half of the season.  The Titans are 0-3 on the road this year and have not covered the point spread even once.  Look for the Bills to start fast using the three-headed monster at RB (CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and Tashard Choice) against the Titan's 24th ranked rushing defense.

Other Games (4-8 Record)
Chicago vs Detroit Under 47.5: 5 Units
The Lions have been slow starters this season but lead the NFL in 4th quarter scoring.  I'm looking for the Bears to jump ahead early, then run the ball effectively late in the game to milk the clock and take away Detroit's rhythm.  Chicago can run the ball when it chooses, averaging 4.1 ypc, ranking 11th in the NFL.  If the Bears choose to run, keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands late, and play their usual stout defense early, they'll win and keep the score low.

Jacksonville +6 at Oakland: 5 Units
I believe the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL and will be picking first in April's draft.  However, I don't think the Raiders are much better and teams as bad as Oakland should rarely give 6 points.  The Jaguars are 2-0 this season ATS on the road.

Upset Special (2-4 Record)
Cleveland +$120 at Indianapolis: 1 Unit
There aren't very many upsets I feel comfortable with this week but this is one I do like.  The Browns travel to Indianapolis as only 2.5 point 'dogs.    Though I haven't seen much of their play this year, I've heard rumblings that they don't look as bad as their record might indicate.  Some people believe Brandon Weeden is making progress and rumor is that Trent Richardson's injury is nothing scary.  Cleveland did defeat a decent Cincinnati squad last week so they will be looking to build upon that momentum.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Chiefs and New GM Have Their Work Cut Out

At this time the Kansas City Chiefs haven't officially fired GM Scott Pioli but I can't think of one reason why Clark Hunt would keep him.  Though Pioli clearly isn't the only reason the Chiefs currently sit at 1-5, he's a big (if not the biggest) reason for it.  Pioli simply hasn't put the right people in the right positions to win.

When Hunt officially begins his GM search (assuming he hasn't already), there are a few things I hope he considers--these are things about which fanbases, bloggers, and talk shows commonly gossip and my thoughts on them.

First, it is somewhat common for fans to think of local talent when searching for coaches and GMs.  Former Chiefs players and assistant coaches will no doubt be mentioned in the gossip columns.  Fans desire these guys perhaps because they are known quantities and they naturally fear the unknown, or maybe they want to believe that because the enjoyed the guy during his time in that city and watching him develop they think they'll enjoy him in his new capacity upon his return.  It's risky for fans to make that assumption.  Most importantly, I don't want Clark Hunt to narrow his search only to former Kansas City players and assistant coaches because a better candidate might be overlooked.  Furthermore, fans want to like the GM, and I fear that Clark Hunt, in the wake of the fiasco that was Scott Pioli, might make a hire in attempt to endear the GM to the fans.

Big mistake.

The best way to endear the GM to the fans is by winning football games.  If the Chiefs win a Super Bowl nobody is going to care whether the GM who built the team has Kansas City roots or not.  If Hunt believes that Al Davis' hypothetical nephew, a diehard, lifelong Raiders fan is the best person for the job, then that's the guy Kansas City needs.  The Chiefs and their community of fans want to win, so when entertaining GM candidates the very last thing on my mind is whether the candidate has a background in Kansas City or with the Chiefs.  I hope Clark Hunt feels the same way.  It is a huge pet peeve of mine to hear pining for So-and-So because he "knows what Kansas City needs" or "understands what it's like to be a Chief."  Give me somebody who knows how to build a winner and that's all I care about.

Concerning the talk of Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, Jon Gruden (or any other former successful coach), I'm really lukewarm on the idea, if I had to be honest.  I spent several minutes today brainstorming highly successful, Championship winning coaches who were highly sought out and hired by other teams.  Most of those guys were failures in their new city.  Whether it be Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, George Seifert, or Dick Vermeil, it seems NFL guys have trouble re-creating the magic of Super Bowls Past.  In fact, I only thought of three guys who moved over to new teams and had success and none of them were in the NFL.  The most obvious such hire was Phil Jackson, who won six NBA titles with Chicago before taking over the Lakers and winning four more.  In MLB, Tony LaRussa won a World Series with Oakland then two more with St. Louis and Jim Leyland was a Series winning manager with the Marlins and has sustained regular season and some moderate post-season success with Detroit.

It appears prima facia that the way to go is to hire the young up-and-comer; the next "Bill Cowher" instead of the first one.  I understand that is much easier said than done, but I hope it is something that Clark Hunt takes into consideration--for both GM and Head Coach (since we know there's no way the Chiefs can bring back Romeo Crennell for 2013).

That said, I have an unusual albeit enticing idea that could be the jackpot of the century if Hunt were somehow able to pull it off.  It would be my dream scenario to hire on Bill Cowher (who coincidentally has roots in Kansas City, serving as the defensive coordinator under Marty Schottenheimer) to come in and coach the Chiefs for just three years.  He would pick the GM, who would serve in that role in name only because almost undoubtedly Cowher would want to choose his own talent.  But part of his job description would be to groom his own replacement--Bill Cowher, as head football coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, would be responsible for finding the next Mike Tomlin.  Since it is somewhat doubtful Clark Hunt is capable of finding such a person, it would be ideal for him to hire a person who could not only tutor his own replacement, but hold down the fort until such a time his replacement is ready.

Am I dreaming, or could that actually happen?

Moving along to on-the-field issues there is no doubt in my mind the Chiefs have a plethora of talented football players.  As a fan of the Chiefs, it would be easy for a reader to call it blind faith, but I know it to be true because several highly respected national NFL media-men have stated similar opinions.  These would include Brian Billick, Peter King, Hub Arkush, and Bill Cowher.  But if the Chiefs are so talented then why are they 1-5?

The entire roster equals less than the sum of its parts.

And that's a huge problem because what it tells me is that there are talented players on the roster who really aren't trying, don't care, or are otherwise distracted by something else other than winning games.  Kansas City's next GM has to target these players and make some difficult decisions about them.  Perhaps some trades or difficult cuts have to be made.  Maybe a long-term contract or two has to be swallowed.  I've never been in the Chiefs locker room or watched a practice so I wouldn't know where to begin, but I know if I were a consultant to the GM I'd really want to know if the Chiefs have any chemistry problems and I want to know whose players are who are causing the problems.

Clark Hunt, along with his next general manager, have their work cut out.

Week 6 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 5...

Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: -7
Carolina -3 vs Seattle: -5 Units
New England -6.5 vs Denver: +1 Unit
San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: -1 Unit

Week 5 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 8-12
Week 5 Winnings: -12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -16 Units

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 7-8
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-4
Betting Favorites (ATS): 2-2
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 1-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-2

Here are my Week 6 picks...

Lock of the Week (3-2 Record)
Atlanta -9 vs Oakland: 8 Units
It is rarely my strategy to pick huge favorites and even more rare to lay this large of a wager, but I'm impressed with the Falcons this season, especially at home.  Three out of their five wins have been by 7 points or more (ironically the two close games were both at home).  The Raiders are coming off a bye week as well as a blowout loss to Denver.  While they are healthy and well-rested, they simply lack the talent to hang with Atlanta.  Between 2007 and 2010, the road underdog is 14-18 ATS when coming off a bye week.

Other Games (4-6 Record)
Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas: 3 Units
It's time I admit the Ravens are actually much better than I anticipated they'd be.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't the liabilities I predicted (due to injury in Reed's case and age in both cases).  I've referred to Tony Romo as a "mistake prone QB," and the Ravens are an opportunistic if unspectacular defense.  When betting against a team with a great pass rusher (ie the Cowboys and Demarcus Ware), I like to know the health of the opposition's offensive line, and Baltimore lists only Jah Reid as questionable and they have allowed 13 sacks this season, good enough for 9th in the NFL.  I think Dallas still has a lot to prove and this is going to be a bad week to do it on the road in Baltimore.

San Diego -1 vs Denver: 2 Units
The Broncos' 17th ranked rushing offense hits the road vs the Chargers' 5th ranked rushing defense, which I believe is going to mitigate the Willis McGahee's effectiveness and make Denver a one-dimensional offense.  That's not necessarily a bad thing when your one-dimensional offense is led by Peyton Manning.  Look for Eric Weddle, who already has a sack, a forced fumble, and two interceptions in 2012, to come up with a couple of big turnovers to sway the game into San Diego's favor.

Upset Special (1-4 Record)
Green Bay (+$170) at Houston: 2 Units
A suspicious line of only 3.5 points leads to believe Vegas is trying to sneak one past us bettors.  Houston almost unarguably looks to be the best team in the NFL this season.  The talented Packers have underachieved, no doubt, but this looks to be one of those games where oddsmakers see a desperate club led by an elite quarterback making a statement on prime time television.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 5 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Week 4....

Minnesota +4 at Detroit: +5 Units

Oakland +7 at Denver: -3 Units

Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: -1 Unit

New York Giants (+$125) at Philadelphia: -4 Units

Week 4 Record: 1-3

Season to Date Record: 7-9

Week 4 Winnings: -3 Units

Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units

Season to Date Stats

Record ATS: 6-6

Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-3

Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1

Betting Underdogs (ATS): 3-3

Betting Overs: 1-1

Betting Unders: 1-1

Here are my Week 5 Picks...

Lock of the Week (3-1 Record)

Chicago at Jacksonville Under 40: 7 Units

At first this appears to be a trap but I really don't see the Jaguars scoring a ton of points in this game--in fact, I believe the Bears could well shut out Jacksonville.  Blaine Gabbert has been disappointing as the team's franchise player, and WRs Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon have done little to help.  Jacksonville's one offensive star, Maurice Jones-Drew, is neutralized by the Bear's 3rd ranked run defense, which is allowing only 67.2 yards/game.  The one scare factor for me on this one, is that Chicago's defense could just as well score multiple touchdowns, as they did against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  

Other Games (3-5)

Carolina -3 vs Seattle: 5 Units

Seattle's Russell Wilson is suddenly struggling and Seattle has to take that dreaded coast-to-coast flight (though they are aided by the fact it is an afternoon 3:05 CT kickoff).   Though Cam Newton and the Panthers are only 1-3, I feel they are better (on paper) than they've shown so far and I expect them to pick it up soon.  They were able to establish the running game last week vs the tough Falcons, and found ways to introduce both DeAngelo williams and Jonathan Stewart into the game.  But Newton led the team in rushing again--which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Seattle is also 0-2 ATS in road games this year.

New England -6.5 vs Denver: 1 Unit

I'm going with a lower amount on this one because I smell the faint scent of a trap.  After that blowout last week of Buffalo, it's hard to avoid jumping on the New England bandwagon.  Denver has experience already this year vs stronger opponents, as they've already beaten Pittsburgh and lost to Houston and Atlanta.  Everybody knows Tom Brady has an unbelievable record at home as the quarterback of the Patriots, but he is also great against the spread.  Since 2010 the Patriots are 11-5-1 ATS at home.  6.5 points doesn't seem like a difficult number to cover for Brady at home, especially vs a team I perceive to be just a shade above average. 

Upset Special (1-3 Record)

San Diego (+$170) at New Orleans: 1 Unit

This one pains me because I don't believe in Phillip Rivers, Norv Turner, or the Chargers in any way, shape, or form.  However, I just don't understand why oddsmakers keep favoring the 0-4 Saints when they are clearly discombobulated without their stalwart head coach and slimy former defensive coordinator.  The Saints' defense isn't defending anybody, giving up a league worst 463 yards per game, and their four loses have come against the 2-2 Redskins, 1-3 Panthers, 1-3 Chiefs, and 2-2 Packers (who haven't looked good in 3 out of those 4 games).  The Chargers haven't exactly set the world on fire but at this juncture there is no doubt they are the better team.

Follow me on Twitter @JimScheffres