Week 4 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Weeks 2 and 3....

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: -8 Units
New Orleans at Carolina over 51: +5 Units
Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: +3 Units
Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: -2 Units

Week 2 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 3-5
Week 2 Winnings: -2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -6 Units

Season to Date Stats
ATS: 3-3
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 0-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-0
Betting Unders: 0-1

San Fransisco at Minnesota Under 42.5: +8 Units
Kansas City at New Orleans Over 53: -8 Units
Buffalo -3 at Cleveland: +2 Units
Atlanta (+150) at San Diego: +3 Units

Week 3 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 6-6
Week 3 Winnings: +5 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -1 Unit

Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 5-4
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 1-2
Betting Favorites (ATS): 1-1
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-1
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders: 1-1

Finally, on to Week 4....

Lock of the Week (2-1 Record)
Minnesota +4 at Detroit: 5 Units
I am in the boat full of people who believes Detroit is going take a big step back this year.  The defense lacks discipline, giving the opposing offense free first downs.  When the offense has two weapons like Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson it's going to be tough enough to stop without the freebies.  The Vikings offensive line man-handled the best defensive line in the NFL last week (San Fransisco) and it'll be interesting to watch how they fare against a talented yet undisciplined line on Detroit.  The Vikings' Jared Allen will help neutralize the Detroit passing attack.

Other Games (3-3 Record)
Oakland +7 at Denver: 3 Units
I'm starting to feel that Denver isn't going to be as good as many have felt, though they are tough at home, as always.  After Peyton Manning's atrocious first half last week vs Atlanta and the way Oakland surprised Pittsburgh, I like the Raider's chances of keeping this game close on the road.  As good as Manning has been throughout his career, he isn't nearly as effective this year without the threat of a running game or a Pro Bowl receiver.

Kansas City +1 vs San Diego: 1 Unit
In a game that will pit the NFL's best rushing offense against the best rushing defense, I give a slight advantage to the home team.  Perhaps all the Chiefs needed after being blown out twice to start the season was some confidence, and they got that last week, picking up a road win at New Orleans.  In 2011 the Chiefs started 0-3 then moved to 4-3.  Justin Houston has been able to solidify the Chiefs' pass rush, and a mistake prone Phillip Rivers vs a good pass rush in a hostile road environment is dangerous territory for the Chargers.

Upset Special (1-2 Record)
New York Giants (+125) at Philadelphia: 4 Units
I can't remember the last time I've seen a quarterback take as much of a physical beating as Michael Vick is taking through 3 games in 2012 and he should fear for his life this week against the best pass rushing defensive line in the league.  The Eagles are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and I expect the Giants to force a few more.  Philadelphia cannot continue winning with a negative turnover ratio and these pass blocking problems.  Look for the trend to continue this week and for the Giants to pull off a mild divisional upset.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Replacement Referee Storyline is Overplayed

Lately, I can't check Twitter or Facebook, watch five minutes of ESPN or NFL Network, or talk about football with anybody at work without hearing/reading a complaint about the replacement referees.  That storyline has played its course.  It's time to move on.

If you've ever criticized a call or badmouthed an NFL official, you have little room to complain now.  The "real" refs are better than the replacements, of course, but you were going to complain about them too if they were on the field the first few weeks of the 2012 season.

I began watching football in approximately 1993, and for the better part of the past 19 years I've heard a thousand angry NFL fans bitch about blown calls.  I've heard dozens of people claim their blind grandma could have made a better, more accurate call.   Now, all of the sudden, those same refs who sucked for 19 years are god's gift to the NFL? 

I call B.S.

Sports fans are always looking for something to complain about.  Maybe it's out of jealousy, I don't know, but it doesn't matter who plays, coaches, officiates, or commishes, you are going to nitpick and critique everybody, all the time.

The real refs have been notoriously bad at important times.  They cost the Seattle Seahawks a Super Bowl victory in Detroit, when the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger's goaline dive--which clearly fell 10-12 inches short of the endzone--was ruled a touchdown.  More recently, just last season, a miraculous trick play which resulted in a Johnny Knox punt return touchdown for the Bears, was called back on a phantom hold, the 49ers were able to beat the Lions aided by a bad spot from a ref, Andy Reid of the Eagles was forced to waste a challenge on an obvious forward pass ruling, the NFL admitted to a multitude of blown calls that many thought screwed over both teams in last year's Saints-Lions playoff game, and a bad roughing the passer call wiped out a Cam Newton interception and directly led to a Panther's touchdown against the Cardinals.  This is the tip of the iceberg of blown calls (by the "real" refs) having a huge effect on the outcome of NFL games. 

I like the real refs better than the replacements, and I hope they return to work soon (mostly because I want you all to shut up about how much you hate the replacements).

I don't want to hear one more bogus assertion that the replacement refs are putting player's safety in risky situations either.  The players are ultimately responsible for their own and each other's safety.  Do you mean to tell me that defensive players are intentionally delivering helmet-to-helmet blows because they believe a replacement ref is less likely to throw a flag?  That's asinine.  I have noticed that games in 2012 seem to be a little "more chippy" than the average 2011 game, but I don't believe it to be a serious threat to player's safety and I don't believe the officials are anything above "slightly" responsible. 

I do believe and sincerely hope that the speed of NFL games increases once the regular refs return, because I think the replacements take a little bit too long to make decisions.  However, I think the correct call has been made with far more frequency than the incorrect call.  A couple instances of unprofessionalism have occurred in the form of a Saints fan with photos of himself wearing a Drew Brees jersey on his facebook page failing to declare it a conflict of interest for him to officiate a Saint's game, and one ref purportedly wishing LeSean McCoy a good game to help his fantasy team.  There is no excuse for those two instances and that is all the news I need to declare myself ready for the real refs to return.

The calls being made on the field have absolutely nothing to do with it.

Tidbit Topics: Pioli, Cutler

Pioli's Priorities Are Horrendously Misguided

The Kansas City Star's top sports columnist, Kent Baab, has now written two articles in a 9 month span that have blown me away.  Back in January Baab revealed the awful work environment that Chiefs' GM Scott Pioli has helped to create around Arrowhead Stadium.  And yesterday, Baab continued, describing Pioli's efforts to further micromanage all aspects of both football and non-football related activities.  Baab's stories have made national headlines, capturing the attention of NFL fans around the country.  Assuming these stories are fact and not one journalist's opinion, Pioli might be considered amongst the worst executives in all of sports.  This kind of secretive workplace clearly hasn't worked in Pioli's four seasons in Kansas City.  It's been a peeve of mine for years when sports journalists state that certain transactions couldn't be made because a particular GM could not deal with the backlash from fans and ticket holders (an example might be trading a star player to the team's division rival or choosing not to sign a free agent in demand by the fanbase).  It simply is not the job of the GM to worry about those types of problems--let the team's public relations and sales/marketing executives work on ways to spin it to the fans.  If Pioli believes in a certain coach or player (or doesn't and chooses to let him walk) then he shouldn't waste more than two minutes explaining a decision.  The Chiefs went into the 2012 season with question marks at several positions on the field and after an 0-2 start, those questions have multiplied.  Pioli has far greater problems to concentrate on, and now, because his priorities are so badly misguided, his new biggest problem might be lack of a job.

Bear's Cutler is out of Excuses

Jay Cutler is the second most polarizing player in the NFL behind only Tim Tebow and it's been a frustrating bunch of seasons for him in Chicago.  Since he joined the team in 2009, the team, its fans, and even Cutler himself have had excuse after excuse for why they haven't won anything of any significance with Cutler captaining the Bears' offense.  Prior to joining Chicago, Cutler apologists point to Denver's subpar defense as the reason the Broncos never made the playoffs with Cutler.  His first few seasons with Chicago, the excuse was a lack of established receiving targets.  Later, it was a poor offensive line and a delusional offensive coordinator.  The Bears' defense has been and is expected to be well above league average, the Bears fired Mike Martz, and they traded for Brandon Marshall and drafted Alshon Jeffrey.  While true their offensive line leaves much to be desired (particularly at left tackle where 7th round pick JaMarcus Webb has been horrendous in 2012), it is the job of an elite quarterback to overcome his team's shortcomings.  Is Jay Cutler an elite quarterback?  The Bears and a large percentage of the fanbase purport him to be.  But a QB who can only win games with a great defense, ingenious coordinator, All-Pro wide receivers, and a stout line allowing him six to seven seconds to throw every play, isn't elite--he's the proverbial "game manager."  The Bears have given Cutler all they are going to give him; if he doesn't produce multiple playoff wins this season then I'm going to believe those Jeff George comparisons that were made in 2009 are accurate.

Week 2 NFL Bets

Here is how I did in Week 1...
San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: +5 Units
Tennessee +5 vs New England: -3 Units
Buffalo at New York Jets under 38.5: -3 Units
Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: -3 Units

Week 1 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 1-3
Week 1 Winnings: -4 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -4 Units

Season to Date Stats:
ATS: 1-2
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 0-1
Betting Favorites: 0-0
Betting Underdogs: 1-1
Betting Overs: 0-0
Betting Unders: 0-1

Now for this week's picks....

Lock of the Week (1-0 Season Record)

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis: 8 Units

Honestly, I'm not putting a whole lot of thought into this one other than my belief that Robert Griffin III is going to put up big numbers all year in a Mike Shannahan coached offense with a plethora of competent receivers and the Rams' defense just isn't that impressive.  I like the addition of Cortland Finnegan and it appears Chris Long may finally be reaching his potential, but nobody else is scary.  St. Louis surrendered 7.4  yards per passing attempt last week (albeit vs a good Detroit offense), and I think RGIII is capable of running up the score in the Edward Jones Dome.

Other Games (0-2 Season Record)

New Orleans at Carolina Over 51: 5 Units

The Saints have big problems; most notably, their defense can't stop a nose bleed.  I don't see Cam Newton and Co. having any trouble dropping 26 points on the defenseless Saints in the home opener. Meanwhile, I like what Carolina has done to beef up their run defense, mostly by drafting Luke Kuechly; but Jon Beason returns from injury as well.  Unfortunately for Panthers, New Orleans isn't going to be running too much and after the awful way the Saints played last week vs Washington and with the knowledge they can't afford to fall to 0-2, Drew Brees will have the Saints' offense in high gear too.

Miami +3.5 vs Oakland: 3 Units
I like Miami as a home dog vs the Raiders, who have a short week of preparation after playing the late night Monday Night game and now have to fly coast to coast and visit the Dolphins.  I don't expect Oakland to struggle as badly on special teams this week, but I think the Dolphins will keep the game close against a likely fatigued opponent.  

Upset Special (0-1 Season Record)

Kansas City (+145) at Buffalo: 2 Units
Neither team can afford to go 0-2 if it has playoff aspirations so there's no doubt in my mind both teams will be ready to play Sunday.  Based strictly on the injury situation, I give a big edge to the Chiefs.  A defense that got torched by the Falcons last week was missing 4 starters and 2 key reserves (with a 3rd string Dime CB getting the start and the assignment of guarding Julio Jones).  This week star CB Brandon Flowers and All-Pro OLB Tamba Hali return which will make a huge difference on the defensive side of the ball.  For the Bills, Fred Jackson will miss the game after an injury last week.  Since signing the huge contract midway through last season Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 1-9 record as the starting QB of the Bills and has thrown 12 TDs and 19 interceptions.  I'm betting on a completely different KC defense showing up in Buffalo this week.

Follow me on Twitter @JimScheffres

2012 NFL Week 1 Bets

2012 NFL Week 1 Bets

Following two pretty good years which saw me gain +47.5 combined UNITS ($4,750 if you bet $100 on every single game I picked)--albeit I was +46 one year and +1.5 the next--I'm back at it again for 2012 and eager to make my Twitter followers some money.  In case you are new to my picks, here is a quick rundown:

• Every week I pick 4 games.  I bet 3 games against the point spread.  Those 3 games could be winners or over/unders.  My 4th game is always longshot bet.  I bet an underdog to win straight up (ATS).  
• I keep track of my overall record season-to-date and my record in each category
• The categories are: Lock of the Week (the game on which I'm placing the largest wager), Other Games, and Upset Special (my ATS game).  I'll also keep track of my winnings (hopefully not losings).
•  I'll provide a brief summary of the reason for my pick, though sometimes if I'm short for time I only tweet the picks with no explanations.
• My bets are in Units.  Take your minimum bet and multiply by the Unit number.  So, if the absolute minimum you would ever consider betting on a game is $50 and I am going with 4 Units, then I would suggest you bet $200 on that game. 
• I encourage Blog Comments and Twitter replies and Re-Tweets!

Lock of the Week

San Fransisco +5 at Green Bay: 5 Units
My take on the 49ers is a little weird, but I basically think they are just as good a team and possibly better than last year, but their record won't reflect that.  They've made some upgrades on the offense, and I like the addition of LaMichael James much more than I do Randy Moss.  I think their defense is still good, but it was just so great last season, and I can't see a repeat of that in 2012.  I remember having some Twitter conversations with people last year who thought the Niners were the 2011 version of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs:  A good team with a good record who played over its head and will fall back to Earth the next season.  The Chiefs went from 10-6 to 7-9.  At any rate, I believe the Packers are going to win, but I like the 49ers to hang close to enough to cover.  

Other Games

Tennessee +5 vs New England: 3 Units
This is going to be one of those games where I am picking the exact opposite of what I actually believe because of the suspiciousness of the line.  I picked New England to go 14-2 and win the AFC and I have Tennessee as one of the worst teams in football--in spite many of the experts liking them as a sleeper.  I think the Titans are going to have one of the worst passing games in the NFL, with a first year starter at QB, no WR better than Kenny Britt, and the belief they can run at will with Chris Johnson.  To me, the Patriots should win this game by 14, which is EXACTLY why I like the Titans +5.  Makes complete sense, right?

Buffalo at New York Jets Under 38.5: 3 Units
I simply do not see the Jets scoring very many points this season and I do believe the Bills defense is improved to the point they could move into the top 12 or possibly top 10 in the league due to a great pass rush up front.  If the Bills jump ahead early (and I could see that happening in spite of their best WR Stevie Johnson being listed as doubtful), and they force the Jets into passing situations the game could be out of hand in a hurry.  Jet's coach Rex Ryan self proclaims as the "best defensive coach in the NFL."  You know what, try winning something of significance first.  Although, I must admit, they still have a good defense there which is why I like the under--I think the Bills will have a tough time putting points on the board in a raucous stadium on the road, too.

Upset Special

Buffalo (+125) at New York Jets: 3 Units
I think the Jets are going to be a bona fide train wreck this season and I've got the Bills making the playoffs as a wild card (only at 9-7 and just barely in, but better than New York).  The Jets have been able to disguise Mark Sanchez's fallacies at QB in recent years due to a strong running game and defense.  But Shonn Green saw his attempts and yard per carry dip considerably in the last three regular season games of 2011 (all losses) and I don't trust the Jet's offense resting on his shoulders in 2012.  The Bills meanwhile made some upgrades on defense and I expect Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to disrupt Sanchez's rhythm all day.

2012 NFL Preview

2012 NFL Preview

by @JimScheffres

I haven't been doing this for a few years because it seems everybody and their brother has an NFL preview and it might get old.  I do enjoy doing these types of things so I'm starting it up again.  I tried signing into my FoxSports account and discovered my blog there had been deleted!  Nice of them to notify me they were clearing space of their servers.  I had years worth of my writing saved there and I'd have loved to make copies.  So this will be my first post on the new blog; and even though I'm only one paragraph in, I'm already seeing some great advantages to hosting on Google over FoxSports.  I hope you enjoy reading as much as I enjoy writing.

+Top Conf Seed (Home Field Advantage)
**Second Conf Seed (First Round Bye)
*Wild Card

AFC

EAST
New England Patriots (13-3) +
Buffalo Bills (9-7)*
New York Jets (7-9)
Miami Dolphins (2-14)

WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6)*
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
Oakland Raiders (5-11)

NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (6-10)

SOUTH
Houston Texans (12-4)**
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

NFC

EAST
New York Giants (11-5)**
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)*
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Washington Redskins (5-11)

WEST
San Fransisco 49ers (9-7)
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
Arizona Cardinals (6-10)

NORTH
Green Bay Packers (11-5)+
Chicago Bears (11-5)*
Detroit Lions (6-10)
Minnesota Vikings (5-11)

SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
Tampa Bay Bucs (6-10)

Playoffs

Chiefs over Bills, Broncos over Steelers
Eagles over Falcons, Bears over 49ers

Patriots over Broncos, Texans over Chiefs
Giants over Eagles, Packers over Bears

Patriots over Texans
Packers over Giants

Packers over Patriots