Week 17 NFL Bets

Week 16's picks were on Twitter, but not the blog.  Here's how I did in week 15 and 16....

Week 15

Minnesota +3 at St. Louis: +7 Units

Chicago vs Green Bay over 43: -7 Units

San Fransisco +5 at New England: +2 Units

New York Jets +$110 at Tennessee: -1 Unit

Week 15 Record: 2-2

Season to Date Record: 25-25

Week 16 Winnings: +1 Unit

Season to Date Winnings: -7 Units

Week 16

Oakland +9 at Carolina: -8 Units

Minnesota +7.5 vs Houston: +4 Units

Chicago -7 at Arizona: +5 Units

Baltimore +$110 vs New York Giants: +2.2 Units

Week 16 Record: 3-1

Season to Date Record: 28-26

Week 16 Winnings: +3.2 Units

Season to Date Winnings: -4.8 Units

Season to Date Statistics

Record ATS 23-25

Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 8-8

Betting Favorites ATS: 9-9

Betting Underdogs ATS: 6-4

Betting Overs: 1-5

Betting Unders: 5-5

Here's my Week 17 picks....

Lock of the Week (8-8 Record)

Washington -3 vs Dallas: 6 Units

I'm basing this wager on my belief that no road team is capable of winning in FedEx field this Sunday.  Yes, that's right, I believe that for just this week that stadium will be so loud and the Redskins so juiced (figuratively) that for one game they will be unbeatable.  With the NFC East crown on the line and the Redskins and RGIII currently the talk of the conference Washington is feeling high and I just don't see them losing to the Cowboys who still have plenty of choke left in them.  

Other Games (15-17 Record)

Indianapolis +7 vs Houston: 5 Units

Houston just isn't as good as most people thought they were several weeks ago when they were 8-1.  Since then they've needed Overtime to defeat the god-awful Lions and Jaguars, got destroyed by the Patriots, and lost handily to the Vikings.  Arian Foster has been held to less than 50 yards rushing in 3 out of his last 4 games.  Indianapolis, though clearly not as talented as the Texans, has an upward pointing arrow, as they'll now be getting their inspirational leader Chuck Pagano back at head coach and like the Redskins, they'll be at home and fighting for playoff position (they need a win to avoid having to play at New England in the first round of the playoffs).

Chicago at Detroit Under 45: 5 Units

With Chicago's top two RBs (Matt Forte and Michael Bush) both injured that will put the Bears in the precarious position of passing more than they'd like, and they do not fair well against the Lions' pass rush, specifically Cliff Avril and Kyle VandenBosch.  While I'll be rooting heartily for Calvin Johnson to break the 2000 yard receiving barrier, he'll have to do it against the two starting CBs on the NFC's Pro Bowl roster--Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings.  This should be a low scoring affair as I see both defenses holding the trump cards over the other team's offensive strengths.

Upset Special: (8-8 Record)

Philadelphia +$250 at New York Giants: 1 Unit

Here is a week where I see absolutely no reason to bet ANY underdog straight up because I don't believe a single one of them has a chance to beat their counterpart.  But since it's my tradition to always pick one, I will carry it on.  I like the value in betting the Eagles, who now get a motivated Michael Vick playing for a contract next season vs a Giants team who has seemingly mailed it in for the year.  

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 15 NFL Bets

Here's how I did in Week 14...

New England -3.5 over Houston: +5 Units
Washington vs Baltimore Under 47.5: -5 Units
Seattle -10 vs Arizona: +1 Unit
Minnesota +$130 vs Chicago: +3.9 Units

Week 14 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 23-23
Week 14 Winnings: +4.9 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -8 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 19-23
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 7-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 8-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-4
Betting Unders: 5-5

Here's my Week 15 picks...

Lock of the Week (7-7 Record)
Minnesota +3 at St. Louis: 7 Units
It seems that with Percy Harvin on IR that Christian Ponder has regressed a little bit, leading the Vikings to run the ball heavily.  This is not a bad thing as Adrian Peterson needs 134 yards per game the last 3 games to go over 2000 rushing yards on the season.  Though the Rams do rank 10th in the NFL in rush defense, Adrian Peterson on turf is dangerous.  With Matt Khalil solidifying himself as one of the better young tackles in the NFL, I see the Vikings running on to the left side early and often.  Look for Jared Allen, who has 9 sacks on the year, to attack QB Sam Bradford, who has been sacked 31 times, 12th most in the NFL.

Other Games (12-16 Record)
Chicago vs Green Bay Over 43: 7 Units
I like the odds of some points being scored in this one.  Chicago's defense, which has been stellar over the years under Lovie Smith, has declined rapidly.  Without Brian Urlacher, and with the play of both starting safeties slipping lately, the Bears figure to be in trouble vs the Packers' high octane passing game.  Randall Cobb has emerged as a go-to reciever, Greg Jennings is back and healthy, and Jermichael Finley has found some passes recently after a horrible start to the season.  Brandon Marshall has been vocal this week about having a big day, and I think he's going to back up the talk with a multiple touchdown performance.

San Fransisco +5 at New England: 2 Units
I think after the blowout win over Houston last week that so many people will jump on the Patriots, meaning this line could become even more attractive to 49ers fans.  I'll take it now.  The 49er defense isn't going to lay an egg like the Texan's defense did last week.  Though Tom Brady can make any team's defense look silly, the 49ers will be so much more prepared for this game.  I think the team with the last possession could win on a field goal.

Upset Special (7-7 Record)
New York Jets +$110 at Tennessee: 1 Unit
This pick came down to the Cowboys over Steelers in Dallas or this game.  Well, the Cowboys suck at home and although I have very little to say about Jets/Titans because I don't care enough to watch one of the worst MNF games in recent memory, I do think the Jets are a marginally better team and so I'll pick them to win.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Week 14 NFL Bets

I had Week 13 on Twitter so let's look at how the last two weeks have gone...

Week 12
Pittsburgh at Cleveland Under 38: +6 Units
Indianapolis at Buffalo Under 51: +2 Units
Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: -5 Units
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: +4 Units

Week 12 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 18-22
Week 12 Winnings: +7 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -7.7 Units

Week 13
New England at Miami Over 51: -7 Units
New York Giants at Washington Over 51: -5 Units
Kansas City +5.5 vs Carolina: +3 Units
Washington +$140 vs New York Giants: +2.8 Units

Week 13 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 20-22
Week 13 Winnings: -6.2 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -13.9 Units

Season to Date Statistics
Record ATS: 17-22
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 6-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-9
Betting Underdogs ATS: 3-3
Betting Overs: 1-4
Betting Unders: 5-4

Here's my Week 14 bets...

Lock of the Week (6-7 Record)
New England -3.5 vs Houston: 5 Units
This is a tough week and it took me a long time to come up with a LotW for Week 14.  I'm seeing Houston playing far too many close games against teams they should be destroying lately, and meanwhile the Patriot's defense has come together the last two weeks on the road, allowing less than 20 points in both contests.  I've spoken this season about Tom Brady's remarkable record at home and the Pats are 7-4-1 ATS this season overall (the Texans are better at 8-4, however).  Considering that Houston has not played well in its few prime time contests I like the savvy Patriots at home and to cover a relatively small spread.

Other Games (11-15 Record)
Washington vs Baltimore Under 47.5: 5 Units
I'm going to base this off of what I saw last week from both teams.  Washington at home, although I correctly picked them to win,did not get their offense going.  The first TD was the result of a fortuitous fumble.  Baltimore struggled vs a beat-up Steeler team with no Rashaard Mendenhall or Ben Roethlisberger. The Redskins have the NFL's 4th best rushing defense to help stop the Raven's strongest suit, Ray Rice.  I like the Redskins to win another close, low-scoring game at home as they did last week against the Giants.

Seattle -10 vs Arizona: 1 Unit
I hate to do this to myself because I despise double digit spreads even though I give them sometimes.  I just don't see Arizona scoring a whole lot of points even with the absence of Brandon Browner.  Seattle still has an elite pass defense to combat Larry Fitzgerald.  But furthermore, Arizona has nobody to throw him the ball anyway.  Throw in Seattle's "12th Man" and it could be a long day for the Cardinals.  The Seahawks may only need two TDs to cover the 10 point spread.

Upset Special (6-7 Record)
Minnesota +$130 vs Chicago: 3 Units
Based on the Bears' injury situation this is not a good matchup.  Chicago may as well have open auditions for WRs.  I still have no idea what Jay Cutler is going to do in the event Brandon Marshall is not open, but I suspect he'll just throw him the ball anyway which, taking into account Jay's past, will probably result in a few turnovers (albeit might result in a couple Marshall ridiculous TDs too).  With no Brian Urlacher and the way the Bears' run defense reacted last week vs Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Petersen and Christian Ponder have got to be foaming at the mouth.