Again, I had my picks on Twitter last week but not on Blogger. Here's how I did in Week 10 and 11...
Week 10
Pittsburgh at Kansas City Over 42: -6 Units
Chicago -1 vs Houston: -4 Units
New England -11 vs Buffalo: -2 Units
Cincinnati +$185 vs New York Giants: +1.85 Units
Week 10 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 15-21
Week 10 Winnings: -10.15 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -8.7 Units
Week 11
Chicago +6.5 vs Houston: -6 Units
Cincinnati -3 at Kansas City: +5 Units
New England at Indianapolis Under 54: -4 Units
Philadelphia +$170 vs Washington: -1 Unit
Week 11 Record: 1-3
Season to Date Record: 16-24
Week 11 Winnings: -6 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -14.7 Units
Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 14-19
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 4-7
Betting Favorites ATS: 6-8
Betting Underdogs ATS: 2-3
Betting Overs: 1-2
Betting Unders: 3-4
Here's my Week 12 bets...
Lock of the Week (5-6 Record)
Pittsburgh at Cleveland under 38: 6 Units
Cleveland's Joe Haden figures to have his way with Ben Roethlisberger still ailing and the Steeler's passing game looking shaky. But Pittsburgh is the team with the NFL's #1 ranked pass defense. The Browns' 27 sacks is tied for 8th in the NFL and Steeler backup QB Byron Leftwich looked to have hurt his ribs last week against the Ravens. If the Browns can turn the Steelers into a one-dimensional running team, they can keep the score close and the total low.
Other Games (9-13 Record)
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Under 51.5: 2 Units
Here's what I did here: I looked for the highest total and decided to go under. When I was winning money doing this thing, I won mostly by bucking the trend and taking underdogs and going under the totals. This year I'm picking too many favorites. My 3-4 record on Unders, sadly, is one of my better plays. Other than that, not too much thought went into this which is why I'm only waging a measly 2 Units.
Denver -10.5 at Kansas City: 5 Units
I hate to pile on my team but until the Chiefs prove otherwise they are not capable of keeping a game close let alone winning one. They are 0-5 at Arrowhead Stadium this year and 1-4 against the spread at home. The Broncos are 3-2 ATS on the road and with a win can all but assure themselves the AFC West crown. Peyton Manning will not let his teammates overlook the lowly Chiefs.
Upset Special (4-7 Record)
Cleveland +$100 vs Pittsburgh: 4 Units
The Browns are even money against a beat up Steeler team. They were able to build some confidence (albeit in a loss) against the Cowboys last week. They pressured Tony Romo and wrecked the Dallas offense. Leftwich is no Romo and the Browns should be able to attack him at will. The Browns have suddenly found a running game lately too. Trent Richardson has rushed for 122, 105, and 95 yards the last 3 games. I feel pretty confident about this one.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Week 10 NFL Bets
While I did not post Week 9's picks to the blog, I did post them on Twitter. Let's take a look back at Week 8 and Week 9...
Week 8
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: +10 Units
New Orleans +6 at Denver: -4 Units
Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5: +6 Units
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: +1.05 Units
Week 8 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 14-18
Week 8 Winnings: +13.05 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -10.55 Units
Week 9
Chicago -3.5 at Tennessee: +8 Units
Atlanta -3.5 at Dallas: +4 Units
Denver at Cincinnati Under 48: -3 Units
Cincinnati +$175 vs Denver: -1 Unit
Week 9 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 16-20
Week 9 Winnings: +12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +1.45 Units
Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 13-14
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 3-6
Betting Favorites (ATS): 5-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-2
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders 3-3
Here's my Week 10 Picks...
Lock of the Week (5-4 Record)
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City Over 42: 6 Units
Popular conspiracy among Chiefs fans is that former coach and current Steeler offensive coordinator Todd Haley would love to run up the score to spite his former employer. Could you blame him? On top of that, the Chiefs will be starting Javier Arenas now that they've released fizzled free agent signing Stanford Routt. Arenas guarding Mike Wallace will be a disaster. To boot, the Chiefs will have a new defensive playcaller as Romeo Crennel has stepped down as defensive coordinator. But Pittsburgh won't reach the magic number 42 by themselves so Kansas City will have to score, and I think that can happen.
Other Games (8-10 Record)
Chicago -1 vs Houston: 4 Units
What scares me here is the Houston defensive line working the Chicago offensive line. The Bears are going to have all kinds of trouble blocking JJ Watt, but it's far from breaking news that the Bears' offensive line stinks and yet they're still 7-1. Jay Cutler and the passing game is feeling pressure to find its rhythm and this isn't going to be the ideal game to do that, but they feel the pressure to do so and I think they've got the confidence. Prime time game; at home; possible Super Bowl preview. Lovie Smith and Cutler are nothing if not arrogant and they'll put together a gameplan to pad their passing statistics--but even if that fails they could always rely on the stout duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush at running back and the best defense in the NFL. Cool stat: the Bears' defense has allowed 9 touchdowns in 8 games. It has also scored 7!
New England -11 vs Buffalo: 2 Units
I'm going way out of character here by betting on such a huge favorite which is why I'm lowering my normal betting amount. Tom Brady and the Patriots simply OWN the Bills. Since 2000 the Pats are 23-2 vs Buffalo and have not lost to them at home since 2000. The Pats last 3 wins vs Buffalo have been by 24 points or more.
Upset Special (3-6 Record)
Cincinnati +$185 vs Giants: 1 Unit
I don't like the Bengals in this game, I just like the price. +185 is pretty good odds for a moderately decent team featuring an out-of-this world player. If the Bengals are going to have any chance in this game, they will need a monster game from AJ Green. The trumpeted Giants' defense has surrendered at least 23 points in their last 3 games. Cincinnati is reeling, losing 4 in a row after starting 3-1 so they are in desperation mode. I think the Bengals will have the last possession of the game with a chance to go for the win and at +185 I'll take my chances.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Week 8
Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia: +10 Units
New Orleans +6 at Denver: -4 Units
Jacksonville at Green Bay Under 45.5: +6 Units
Oakland +$105 at Kansas City: +1.05 Units
Week 8 Record: 3-1
Season to Date Record: 14-18
Week 8 Winnings: +13.05 Units
Season to Date Winnings: -10.55 Units
Week 9
Chicago -3.5 at Tennessee: +8 Units
Atlanta -3.5 at Dallas: +4 Units
Denver at Cincinnati Under 48: -3 Units
Cincinnati +$175 vs Denver: -1 Unit
Week 9 Record: 2-2
Season to Date Record: 16-20
Week 9 Winnings: +12 Units
Season to Date Winnings: +1.45 Units
Season to Date Stats
Record ATS: 13-14
Betting Underdogs Straight Up: 3-6
Betting Favorites (ATS): 5-6
Betting Underdogs (ATS): 2-2
Betting Overs: 1-1
Betting Unders 3-3
Here's my Week 10 Picks...
Lock of the Week (5-4 Record)
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City Over 42: 6 Units
Popular conspiracy among Chiefs fans is that former coach and current Steeler offensive coordinator Todd Haley would love to run up the score to spite his former employer. Could you blame him? On top of that, the Chiefs will be starting Javier Arenas now that they've released fizzled free agent signing Stanford Routt. Arenas guarding Mike Wallace will be a disaster. To boot, the Chiefs will have a new defensive playcaller as Romeo Crennel has stepped down as defensive coordinator. But Pittsburgh won't reach the magic number 42 by themselves so Kansas City will have to score, and I think that can happen.
Other Games (8-10 Record)
Chicago -1 vs Houston: 4 Units
What scares me here is the Houston defensive line working the Chicago offensive line. The Bears are going to have all kinds of trouble blocking JJ Watt, but it's far from breaking news that the Bears' offensive line stinks and yet they're still 7-1. Jay Cutler and the passing game is feeling pressure to find its rhythm and this isn't going to be the ideal game to do that, but they feel the pressure to do so and I think they've got the confidence. Prime time game; at home; possible Super Bowl preview. Lovie Smith and Cutler are nothing if not arrogant and they'll put together a gameplan to pad their passing statistics--but even if that fails they could always rely on the stout duo of Matt Forte and Michael Bush at running back and the best defense in the NFL. Cool stat: the Bears' defense has allowed 9 touchdowns in 8 games. It has also scored 7!
New England -11 vs Buffalo: 2 Units
I'm going way out of character here by betting on such a huge favorite which is why I'm lowering my normal betting amount. Tom Brady and the Patriots simply OWN the Bills. Since 2000 the Pats are 23-2 vs Buffalo and have not lost to them at home since 2000. The Pats last 3 wins vs Buffalo have been by 24 points or more.
Upset Special (3-6 Record)
Cincinnati +$185 vs Giants: 1 Unit
I don't like the Bengals in this game, I just like the price. +185 is pretty good odds for a moderately decent team featuring an out-of-this world player. If the Bengals are going to have any chance in this game, they will need a monster game from AJ Green. The trumpeted Giants' defense has surrendered at least 23 points in their last 3 games. Cincinnati is reeling, losing 4 in a row after starting 3-1 so they are in desperation mode. I think the Bengals will have the last possession of the game with a chance to go for the win and at +185 I'll take my chances.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
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