1. Justin Houston Has to Have Another Phenomenal Season
I'll define "phenomenal" as starting at least 14 games and getting at least 17 sacks. It's going to be difficult for him to repeat his 22-sack performance from last year, but now that he's been given the big contract, he's got to own it. The key to one of the NFL's best past defenses last season, Houston has to be that cog that drives the team again this year.
2. The Other OLBs (Tamba Hali and Dee Ford) Have to Combine for 10 Sacks
Houston cannot do it all by himself, and when he's right, he draws attention away from the offense's left side, so the other starter(s) have to take advantage of that. I don't care of Hali gets 9 sacks and Ford only gets 1, or if they each get 5, but they have to produce a double-digit sack count to really give the Chiefs that two-headed monster in the pass rush.
3. Another WR besides Jeremy Maclin has to be Serviceable
I just double checked the Chiefs' depth chart and winced. I don't know how John Dorsey can possibly continue to roll out atrocious starting wide receivers and think the Chiefs' offense can be anything above mediocre. This year, Albert Wilson gets the nod. Between Wilson, Jason Avant, and rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley, somebody has got to put together a 40+ catch, 4 touchdown season or else I don't think Kansas City can score enough points to hang with the big boys. True, they can still rely on Travis Kelce, Jamaal Charles, and Maclin, but WR has been a noticeable weakness for KC for a few years running now, and it has to change this season.
4. Andy Reid and Doug Pederson Have to Find Creative Ways to Hide a Hideous Offensive Line
Just like with the WRs, the offensive line has been a glaring weakness for years on Missouri's west side. The Chiefs will have four new starters this season (with Eric Fisher counting as a new starter since he'll be playing a different position), but I'm not impressed with the progress and I don't think the changes will help much. So the coaching staff has to scheme the weakness. They could let QB Alex Smith do short drops with short passes to Kelce, Charles, and reserve wideout De'Anthony Thomas, and that will actually suit the Chiefs' strengths. Maybe that was their plan all along. Sooner or later though, they have to turn those short passes into long runs, or take chances downfield to stretch the defense, as Kansas City has not managed to score a lot of points against those Cover 1 fronts.
5. The Chiefs Must be "Average" in Stopping the Run
Last year, Kansas City was 5th worst in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 3rd worst in yards per carry allowed. I hesitate to even mention the names "Mike DeVito" and "Derrick Johnson" because I really have no idea what to expect from them this season coming off Achilles injuries. Ditto "Eric Berry" who finished chemotherapy treatment for his treatable form of cancer. If none of those three players can be difference makers, then who will it be? Being that the offense isn't going to blow opponents away this year, I expect lots of close games, and that means for the Chiefs to have a successful season they have to be able to slow down the opponent's running game in the 4th quarter.
6. Jamaal Charles Has got to be Healthy
Charles said he played most of last year hurt and he had the worst season of his career. Mind you, he was still pretty good. But "pretty good" isn't going to cut it if the Chiefs hope to sneak into the playoffs this year. Charles has to start all 16 games and get his yards-per-carry average back over 5.0 (he has a career 5.5 ypc average, the second best by a RB of all time).
When it's all said and done, I've got the Chiefs going 9-7, which is exactly where they finished last season. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? I give the rest of my AFC and NFC team record and playoff predictions here.
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