What Has to Go Right for the 2015 Chiefs to Make the Playoffs

I'm not certain whether the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs have improved from their 2014 9-7 season, but I do think that the AFC West is a much weaker division overall.  Most notably, with Peyton Manning being a year older, and Denver losing their entire coaching staff and top TE Julius Thomas, the Broncos will be worse than 12-4.  But have the Chiefs closed the gap enough to win the division?  Here is what I think has to go right with this year's team in order for the Chiefs to make the playoffs.

1. Justin Houston Has to Have Another Phenomenal Season

I'll define "phenomenal" as starting at least 14 games and getting at least 17 sacks.  It's going to be difficult for him to repeat his 22-sack performance from last year, but now that he's been given the big contract, he's got to own it.  The key to one of the NFL's best past defenses last season, Houston has to be that cog that drives the team again this year.

2. The Other OLBs (Tamba Hali and Dee Ford) Have to Combine for 10 Sacks

Houston cannot do it all by himself, and when he's right, he draws attention away from the offense's left side, so the other starter(s) have to take advantage of that.  I don't care of Hali gets 9 sacks and Ford only gets 1, or if they each get 5, but they have to produce a double-digit sack count to really give the Chiefs that two-headed monster in the pass rush.

3. Another WR besides Jeremy Maclin has to be Serviceable

I just double checked the Chiefs' depth chart and winced.  I don't know how John Dorsey can possibly continue to roll out atrocious starting wide receivers and think the Chiefs' offense can be anything above mediocre.  This year, Albert Wilson gets the nod.  Between Wilson, Jason Avant, and rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley, somebody has got to put together a 40+ catch, 4 touchdown season or else I don't think Kansas City can score enough points to hang with the big boys.  True, they can still rely on Travis Kelce, Jamaal Charles, and Maclin, but WR has been a noticeable weakness for KC for a few years running now, and it has to change this season.

4. Andy Reid and Doug Pederson Have to Find Creative Ways to Hide a Hideous Offensive Line

Just like with the WRs, the offensive line has been a glaring weakness for years on Missouri's west side.  The Chiefs will have four new starters this season (with Eric Fisher counting as a new starter since he'll be playing a different position), but I'm not impressed with the progress and I don't think the changes will help much.  So the coaching staff has to scheme the weakness.  They could let QB Alex Smith do short drops with short passes to Kelce, Charles, and reserve wideout De'Anthony Thomas, and that will actually suit the Chiefs' strengths.  Maybe that was their plan all along.  Sooner or later though, they have to turn those short passes into long runs, or take chances downfield to stretch the defense, as Kansas City has not managed to score a lot of points against those Cover 1 fronts.

5. The Chiefs Must be "Average" in Stopping the Run

Last year, Kansas City was 5th worst in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 3rd worst in yards per carry allowed.  I hesitate to even mention the names "Mike DeVito" and "Derrick Johnson" because I really have no idea what to expect from them this season coming off Achilles injuries.  Ditto "Eric Berry" who finished chemotherapy treatment for his treatable form of cancer.  If none of those three players can be difference makers, then who will it be?  Being that the offense isn't going to blow opponents away this year, I expect lots of close games, and that means for the Chiefs to have a successful season they have to be able to slow down the opponent's running game in the 4th quarter.

6. Jamaal Charles Has got to be Healthy

Charles said he played most of last year hurt and he had the worst season of his career.  Mind you, he was still pretty good.  But "pretty good" isn't going to cut it if the Chiefs hope to sneak into the playoffs this year.  Charles has to start all 16 games and get his yards-per-carry average back over 5.0 (he has a career 5.5 ypc average, the second best by a RB of all time).

When it's all said and done, I've got the Chiefs going 9-7, which is exactly where they finished last season.  Will it be enough to make the playoffs?   I give the rest of my AFC and NFC team record and playoff predictions here.  

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

2015 NFL Predictions

2015 NFL Predictions
* = Wild Card
** = First Round Bye
# = First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage


AFC

East
New England Patriots 11-5 **
Miami Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 5-11


North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 3-13


South
Indianapolis Colts 12-4 #
Houston Texans 10-6 *
Tennessee Titans 4-12
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

West
Denver Broncos 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 *
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10


Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Andrew Luck          1. LeSean Mccoy          1. T.Y. Hilton                   1. Texans
2. B. Roethlisberger    2. Jamaal Charles         2. Rob Gronkowski          2. Chiefs
3. Tom Brady              3. Melvin Gordon         3. Demaryus Thomas       3. Bills

NFC

East
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles  8-8
New York Giants 8-8
Washington Redskins 4-12


North
Green Bay Packers 12-4 #
Detroit Lions 8-8
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 6-10


South
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
New Orleans Saints 9-7 *
Carolina Panthers 9-7
Tampa Bay Bucs 4-14


West
Seattle Seahawks 12-4 **
St. Louis Rams 9-7 *
Arizona Cardinals 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 4-14

Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Aaron Rodgers             1. Adrian Peterson     1. Odell Beckham Jr.         1. Seahawks
2. Matt Ryan                    2. DeMarco Murray   2. Calvin Johnson              2. Rams
3. Tony Romo                  3. Marshawn Lynch   3. Dez Bryant                     3. Packers

MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon
Defensive Player of the Year: Jadaveon Clowney

Playoffs
Texans over Broncos
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Saints
Falcons over Rams

Colts over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Cowboys

AFC Championship
Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship
Packers over Seahawks

Super Bowl
Colts 32, Packers 28

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

White Sox Won't Win Again Until They Stop Caring About Profits

For as far back as I can remember (I'm 34 years old), the Chicago White Sox have been in a precarious situation and there is no foreseeable way out in the near future.  That situation, of course, is that they play second fiddle to the Cubs, whose fanbase is not only greater in number, but also seems to care less about the team's record when deciding whether or not to buy baseball tickets.  The White Sox, therefore, have to win games, or else, they don't draw fans or maximize profits.

This entails that the Sox, quite literally, can't afford to put together successive losing seasons in order to put on a full rebuild.  And, unfortunately, for the 3rd time since the 2007 season, I am going to write a column opining for exactly that.

The Sox's front office is handcuffed.  They can't throw big money to lure the top-notch free agents, and when they land the second tier free agents, bad things usually happen.  Four years ago, Adam Dunn was Exhibit A, and this season, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche are challenging to be 1A and 1B.  Through 40 games, Cabrera, who signed a 3-year $42 million contract, has posted a .570 OPS and -0.3 WAR, and LaRoche (2-years, $25 million) has a .712 OPS (almost .100 points below his career average).  I should note, to be fair, that David Robertson is having a spectacular season and figures to be the most successful big money free agent the White Sox have signed since inking Albert Belle back in 1997.

As a rule of thumb, I try to withhold judgement on Major League Baseball players and teams until Memorial Day, to gather a decent sample size.  On the day before Memorial Day, the White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League and second fewest overall.  They have the fewest home runs, fewest triples, and second fewest doubles in the A.L., so it should go as no surprise that their team dead last team SLG% of .358 is 40 points below league average.  They posses a paltry .666 OPS.

The White Sox have the second fewest walks in the A.L, too and of recent, have begun striking out at alarming rates.  In a recent 4-game home series vs the Indians in which the Sox lost 3 games and scored 8 runs total, the team struck out 42 times with only 11 walks.  Not only are the Sox failing at epic rates to reach base, but they are making outs at sickening rates even when they do reach.  They've stolen only 9 bases while getting thrown out 12 times (dead last in MLB), have been picked off once, and have 19 outs on the basepaths (third worst in MLB).  They're baserunning is flat out atrocious.

Chicago's south side team has a -34 run differential and play in the same division as the Kansas City Royals, who at +70 own the best record in MLB.  Not too far behind Kansas City is Detroit's Tigers, who have some issues of their own but will figure to sit comfortably in second place for some time.  I thought the Sox could win at least 86 games and contend for a Wild Card spot this year, but it was probably naive of me to think a team featuring Tyler Flowers and Conor Gillaspie in the every day lineup and John Danks and Hector Noesi at the back of the rotation could possibly finish that many games over .500.  I wasn't counting on those four players to contribute much anyway, but I was counting on guys like Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jeff Samardzija, and Alexei Ramirez to play a high level, and, frankly, they have disappointed.

In 2013, I wrote that the White Sox's rebuild is 6 years over due, and detailed how much different the team could be had they traded valuable veterans such as Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski, and Matt Thornton back in 2007, when they finished 72-90.  In addition to saving hundreds of millions of dollars by avoiding paying those players and signing expensive free agents, the Sox would have replenished their minors and, I firmly believe, would have one of the best young teams in the American League right now.

The 2015 Chicago White Sox are an underwhelming bunch and there is little hope of turning this season around.  There are two obvious players on the roster who could help the Sox get younger and shore up positions of dire need (catcher and third base, to start)--Samardzija and Ramirez.  The sooner they advertise themselves as sellers the better, as teams are more likely to give up more talent in early June as opposed to late July, since their newly acquired veterans get to play more games for their franchise.  Cabrera and LaRoche are two players I wouldn't mind see go, however, their value is almost zero and the Sox would have to pay a significant portion of their remaining salaries which is something they seldom show any interest in doing.

Should the White Sox entertain offer for Sale, Robertson, Jose Quinana, and Jose Abreu?  I believe they should.  If they are going into full-rebuild mode (as I believe they should), they are not likely to be contending again while those players are under contract.  Sale, in particular, would be worth a king's ransom in the trade market.  The Sox could easily pick up 5 or 6 young players for him, and at least 4 of them would be the other team's top prospects.

But alas, this is a fanciful wish, because the White Sox know that by going into full rebuild mode, they will fail to draw fans to the park.  So instead, they'll throw bad money onto bad money.  They'll try to shore up a weakness by trading one of their few remaining worthwhile prospects for marginal Major Leaguer.  They'll lose Samardzija for nothing in December, and they'll hang onto guys like Sale and Abreu for years until their age (and value) diminish and they won't win nary a playoff game in the process.  If White Sox ownership could deal with two or three bad years at the turnstiles, they could significantly improve their future chances at a Championship.  But they can't.  And they won't.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

A Look Ahead to 2015

January

• Alabama beats Oregon 34-30 to win the college football national championship.  Amari Cooper is the game's MVP.
• Max Scherzer re-signs with the Detroit Tigers, inking a 10-year, $224 million deal.
• LeBron James returns from his 2-week injury, scoring 34 points and dishing 10 assists in a win over the Clippers.
• Aaron Rodgers throws 5 Touchdowns in Cowboy Stadium as the Packers defeat Dallas 35-21 in a playoff classic.
• The Chicago Bears announce that Doug Marrone is their new coach.  Mike Shanahan is named coach of the Atlanta Falcons.
• The Minnesota Vikings release RB Adrian Peterson.  He ends up signing with the Texans.

February

• Rodgers is named Super Bowl MVP, as Green Bay beats the New England Patriots 26-24.  Rob Gronkowski has 160 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss.
• The San Francisco 49ers name former Broncos OC Adam Gase as their new head coach.  Rex Ryan becomes the coach of the Oakland Raiders.
• The Tennessee Titans trade a conditional draft pick to the Bears for QB Jay Cutler.
• The Kings' Jonathan Quick records back-to-back shutouts at home against the Red Wings and Senators.

March

• In an epic rivalry matchup for the NCAA basketball championship, Louisville defeats Kentucky 71-67.
• Future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson announces his retirement from the NFL.  He signs a deal with ESPN to work as a studio analyst for college football.
• Ndamukong Suh re-signs with the Detroit Lions, netting the biggest ever contract in NFL history for a defensive lineman.  The Chiefs make OLB Justin Houston the highest paid LB in the NFL.  
• 39-year-old Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees opens the season as the highest ever paid backup DH.

April

• Pitcher James Shields shakes off the playoff rust and goes 6.2 IP for the win for his new team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
• The Tampa Bay Bucs select Oregon QB Marcus Mariotta as the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft.
• The Buffalo Bills trade up at the end of the first round to select troubled Florida State QB Jameis Winston.
• Two former Chicago Bears defensive stalwarts make the news.  LB Lance Briggs joins his former coach Lovie Smith in Tampa Bay, and CB Charles Tillman officially announces his retirement.
• Dez Bryant is not able to reach a long-term agreement with the Cowboys, and he signs a 1-year Franchise tender.

May

• The Detroit Lions sign WR Reggie Wayne to a 1-year contract.
• White Sox SP Chris Sale lands on the disabled list, again, with another minor left shoulder injury.  He returns two weeks later showing no signs of pain.
• The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton crushes a 490 foot home run off Madison Bumgarner, nto the drink over the right-field fence at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

June

• In a move to save salary cap space, the Kansas City Chiefs release OLB Tamba Hali and WR Dwayne Bowe.  Both sign with divisional teams.
• For the first time since 1991, Chicago's United Center simultaneously hosts both the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.  The Bulls lose the series 4-1 to Golden State, and the Blackhawks claim their third Cup in six years by beating the Bruins in Game 7.  Steph Curry is the Finals MVP while Patrick Kane takes the Conn Smyth after tallying his 7 points vs Boston alone.
• The Philadelphia 76ers select Jahlil Okafor from Duke with the first overall selection the NBA draft.  The Minnesota Timberwolves trade up to #2 and select Kentucky big man Karl-Anthony Towns.
• Ohio State and Michigan both nab top 5 recruiting classes for the upcoming football season

July

• Former Cavs F Kevin Love signs a max deal with the New York Knicks.  The Chicago Bulls extend surprise SG Jimmy Butler's contract, paying him $14 million per year.
• The National League defeats the American League 11-8 in the All-Star game, securing home field advantage in the World Series.
• The Philadelphia Phillies trade Chase Utley and Cole Hamels to the Boston Red Sox.
• In an episode of Hard Knocks, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers jokes with a rookie free agent that he will give him another pouty face if he runs the wrong route again.
• The prize of the NHL unrestricted free agent class, D Mike Green, signs with the Red Wings.

August

• In a waiver deal, SP Mark Buehrle is traded by the Blue Jays to his hometown St. Louis Cardinals.  Buehrle will retire at the season's end.
• George Karl comes out of retirement to take a front office job with the 76ers.

September

• Jim Harbaugh's debut at Michigan is a success as the Wolverines route a Div 1-AA team on opening day.
• The defending Super Bowl champion Packers open up the regular season with a loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks.
• Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner are the winning pitchers in MLB's Wild Card playoffs.  They combine to allow 3 runs and strike out 21 batters.
• Titan's QB Jay Cutler follows up his 4 TD, 360-yard game with a 177-yard, 0TD and 2 INT performance on Thursday Night Football.

October

• Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, the NHL's two highest paid players, open the season with a goal and an assist each in a win over the Montreal Canadians.
• The St. Louis Cardinals defeat the Tigers to win the World Series in 5 games.
• Johnny Manziel, who won the Browns' starting QB job in training camp, is benched after throwing 3 INTs in the first half of a game against Pittsburgh.

November

• T-Wolves sensation Andrew Wiggins scores a career high 50 points against the team that drafted--the Cavaliers.
• Heat SG Dwayne Wade has surgery on an injured foot and misses the remainder of the season.
• Ndamukong Suh is suspended two games for a late hit on QB Teddy Bridgewater.  His appeal is upheld.  Bridgewater misses a month with a concussion.
• The New York Mets acquire CF Josh Hamilton from the Angels.

December

• Jeff Samardzija signs a multi-year contract with the San Diego Padres at the GM's winter meetings.
• Odell Beckham Jr. establishes himself as the league's best WR, leading the league in yards (1506), yards per catch (18.0), and touchdowns (16).
• The Charger's Melvin Gordon is the clear favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award.
• The Big 12 is shutout of the NCAA football playoffs for the second year in a row.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions enter the playoffs as the #1 overall seeds in each conference, are the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.
• The Carolina Panthers fire coach Ron Rivera following a 6-10 season.