Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Excitement Abounds for '15 White Sox, But Work Still Needs to be Done

I have a ton of thoughts on this eventful offseason the White Sox have had so far, and unfortunately I'm writing late enough in the day that everything I've wanted to say has already been said on the blogs, radio, and social media.  I'm going to put some twists on some of the ideas you've already heard, though.

First, am I excited about the 2015 White Sox?  Yes!  I think Matt Spiegal of the 670 AM mid-day show put it best today.  "Are the White Sox favorites?  No, are they contenders?  Are they Wild Card contenders?  Hell yeah!"  This team still has holes that need to be filled if the Sox have serious expectations of advancing deep into the 2015 postseason, but there's time, and the front office appears to be willing to part with resources (money and prospects) to make it happen.

I'm most excited about the Jeff Samardzija and Zach Duke acquisitions.  I liked Duke as a prospect coming up with the Pirates, and he reminds me of former Sox pitchers Matt Thornton and Gavin Floyd in that they were high draft choices for other teams whom Kenny Williams handed to Don Cooper who then subsequently saved a player's career.  Duke had some success in recent history, so he differs from Thornton and Floyd in that he isn't a reclamation project. Duke is just a solid pitcher who fills a big need for the White Sox.

Adam LaRoche doesn't do a whole lot for me, but he again fills a need.  I'm skeptical that he's worth the $12+ million the Sox will pay him the next couple of years, but some think he's a great fit for US Cellular Field and will produce hefty power numbers.  My skepticism arises from his age, he's 35.  If LaRoche can match his 2013 output of .259 with 26 homers and 82 walks, then the money is well spent.

I agree with most of the bloggers and Tweeters that few closers are worth the $11 million Chicago is giving David Robertson; however, he also fills a huge need and the White Sox apparently had a ton of money available to spend, so why not?  What I like about Robertson is that he succeeded under stressful circumstances, last season.  He took over the closer's duties for Mariano Rivera.  To take THAT role, taking over for THAT player, in THAT city, for THAT team AND having a solid season is noteworthy.  I like a closer with moxy, who can handle stress, and evidently Robertson fits the bill.  Plus, he mitigates a Sox weakness (defense) with a high strikeout ratio in a hitter's park.

That brings me to Samardzija, the greatest of all these new players.  I thought the White Sox had a really nice 1-2 punch in the pitching rotation with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, but by adding Samardzija, the White Sox, on paper, have one of the best rotations in the American League.  They didn't give up much to get him, either.  They were able to keep 2013 top pick Tim Anderson and incumbent SS Alexei Ramirez, an All-Star and 2-time Silver Slugger who also possesses a positive Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR) rating.  As many have pointed out, even if the White Sox aren't competitive, they can flip him in July for prospects, and if they aren't able to meet his salary demands and re-sign him, they'll receive draft pick compensation in 2016 when he signs elsewhere.  I fully expect the team and Samardzija to reach common ground and agree to an extension, however.

Here's my twist: I'm going to talk about some of the negative things now, but I'll suggest some ideas to fix them.  First with their new starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija.  Billy Beane doesn't often lose trades, and the common consensus seems to me that he lost this trade heftily.  The A's gave up a top 10 Baseball Prospectus prospect (Addison Russell) to get Samardzija last season, and then flipped him for a few second and third tier prospects.  It doesn't make much sense, but I don't doubt that Billy Beane knows what he's doing.  I fear this trade could be remembered as yet another time Beane fleeced the White Sox, with trades involving Billy Koch and Nick Swisher also joining that company.  Do the A's think Samardzija is due for a down season, or do they see something spectacular in Marcus Semien?  I don't know, but I suspect at least one of those is the case.

The White Sox still have uncertainty at middle relief, the 5th starting spot, LF, 2B, and most likely 3B and C.  Conor Gillaspie figures to maintain his grip on the 3B spot, but he can't be the longterm answer.  Can Matt Davidson impress the White Sox enough to supplant him?  It seems unlikely.  Tyler Flowers can at least manage a pitching staff, so it may be ok to keep him as the every day catcher for now.  But if the Sox are going to keep an automatic out in their lineup at catcher, they cannot also afford to do the same at 2B and LF.  So they absolutely must upgrade at least one of those positions.  Second base could be filled by soon-to-be-24-year-old Micah Johnson, who stole 84 bases across three leagues in 2013 and was hitting .275 in AAA last year before sustaining a serious leg injury.  I'm willing to give Johnson a chance at 2B, but not willing to assume he's both healthy and competent, so that means the White Sox have to upgrade at LF.

So, what else needs to be done?  LF has to be the top priority at this point, along with middle relief, and if possible, another SP and/or 2B.  Melky Cabrera is the only solid FA OF left unsigned, and I'm not sure he fits given his lack of power.  Rumors abound that John Danks could be on the move to the Dodgers with the return being either Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier.  If those rumors are true, I'd love to see Chicago jump on Crawford, who has three  years remaining on a terrible contract (he'll make $20,500,000, $20,750,000, and $21,000,000 in 2015, 2016, and 2017 respectively).  If Los Angelos wants to trim salary and open up an OF spot, they could do worse than adding a southpaw like Danks.  If Williams and Rick Hahn can somehow pull that off, and replace Danks' spot in the rotation by signing Ervin Santana, then I'll truly be drinking the White Sox Kool-Aid.  Here, I must channel my inner 12-year-old, so just for giggles, here's how the roster MIGHT shake out:

CF Adam Eaton (R)
LF Carl Crawford (L)
1B Jose Abreu (R)
DH Adam LaRoche (L)
RF Avisail Garcia (R)
SS Alexei Ramirez (R)
3B Conor Gillaspie  (L)
2B Micah Johnson ( L)
C  Tyler Flowers (R)

SP Chris Sale (L)
SP Jeff Samardzija (R)
SP Jose Quintana (L)
SP Ervin Santana (R)
SP Hector Noesi (R)

Setup Nate Jones (R)
Setup Zach Putnam (R)
Setup Zach Duke (L)
Closer David Robertson (R)

The Tigers are about to lose Max Scherzer and the Royals will soon lose James Shields.  With a few more tweaks, the AL Central Title is on the table for the White Sox.

Monday, September 8, 2014

How Early is "Too Early?:" John Dorsey Does Not Receive Passing Grade

Before I'm accused of pressing the panic prematurely, I'll point out that I did predict the Kansas City Chiefs to go 5-11 in 2014 season, and I was also critical of the decision to trade for Alex Smith and give him a contract extension.

John Dorsey has been a disappointment in the front office for the Chiefs.

Kansas City has gone 11-7 in his tenure as general manager (counting the playoffs), but you'd be hard pressed to find a weaker 11-7 team in recent NFL history.  Dorsey significantly turned over the roster following a 2-14 2012 season under his predecessor, Scott Pioli, but has missed the boat on several key roster moves.

It all begins with the acquisition of QB Alex Smith.  The news of the trade for Smith from San Fransisco made me happy until I heard that Dorsey foolishly parted with two 2nd-round draft choices.  I couldn't, and still can't, conceive of giving up more than 3rd round pick for a middle-of-the-pack, game manager at quarterback.  See Smith's career advanced passing statistics on Pro-Football-Reference.com (100 is considered league average):


Year Age Tm GS QBrec Att Y/A+ NY/A+ AY/A+ ANY/A+ Cmp%+ TD%+ Int%+ Sack%+ Rate+
2005 21 SFO 7 2-5-0 165 72 60 53 49 71 60 40 47 49
2006 22 SFO 16 7-9-0 442 94 94 92 92 93 96 92 94 92
2007 23 SFO 7 2-5-0 193 56 59 69 69 57 66 115 88 66
2009 25 SFO 10 5-5-0 372 88 90 92 93 98 109 96 103 98
2010 26 SFO 10 3-7-0 342 98 98 98 98 97 98 101 95 98
2011 27 SFO 16 13-3-0 445 99 93 108 104 103 95 128 77 108
2012 28 SFO 9 6-2-1 218 117 107 117 111 133 118 108 71 123
2013* 29 KAN 15 11-4-0 508 91 92 100 100 98 102 112 95 103
Career 91 49-41-1 2720 92 90 95 93 96 96 103 87 96
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/8/2014.



Smith is not worth the price paid by the Chiefs in terms of draft compensation, but Dorsey compounded the mistake this offseason by signing Smith to a 4-year, $68 million extension.  That's a lot of draft picks and a lot of money for a guy Pro-Football-Reference compares most similarly to guys like Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Jim Harbaugh, and Chad Pennington.

Dorsey had the number one overall pick in the draft in 2013 and settled on tackle Eric Fisher, who was so awful as a rookie he was demoted to the second team late last season and didn't play in the playoff loss to the Colts.  Fisher had a poor training camp but was handed the starting left tackle position after Dorsey allowed incumbent Branden Albert to depart via free agency and Donald Stephenson was suspended for a PED violation.  No team can afford to miss on the number one overall pick, but it was especially important for Dorsey to hit on it because of the general feeling that the Chief's veteran defense and stud RB gave them a legitimate Super Bowl window in the short-term.

The rest of Dorsey's draft picks are having a difficult time seeing the field.  Travis Kelce and Sanders Commings in particular have been injured, and this year's first round choice, Dee Ford, the LB from Auburn is quite obviously a pick made for next year's team, since those in the know predict Tamba Hali will be a salary cap casualty following this year.  Dorsey drafted another quarterback in the fifth round this year.  To say this is a head scratcher is a severe understatement.  Did Dorsey think that 3rd string QB was a more pressing need than wide receiver?

After Donnie Avery's uninspiring 2013 campaign I figured it was a foregone conclusion that he'd be released and replaced for his year.  It wasn't until training camp in July that I discovered he was still on the roster, and I couldn't believe my ears when I heard, just a few weeks ago, that he would be starting Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2014.  Donnie Avery ought to be in street clothes; he's a fourth or fifth wideout on a playoff team.

WR, along with Safety and Tight End, were three of the most desirable positions for Dorsey to upgrade heading into 2014, and Dorsey failed to draft ANY of them back in April.  That is damn near a fireable offense right there!  How could Dorsey release Brandon Flowers, the team's best cornerback and 2013 Pro Bowler, and expect the combination of Sean Smith, a disappointing veteran free agent signing of Dorsey's last year; Marcus Cooper, a 7th-round pick claimed off waivers who was burned ad nauseum in the second half of last year; and Phillip Gaines, a rookie 3rd round pick to replace him?  How could Dorsey possibly count on Avery and Junior Hemmingway to magically improve the team's WR corps?

Besides losing the aforementioned Pro Bowl players Albert and Flowers, the Chiefs also lost key contributors like DE Tyson Jackson, G Geoff Schwartz, and punt returner Dexter McCluster.  Dorsey made no apparent attempt to replace them.  Safety Kendrick Lewis, like Cooper, played horribly later last season, and left, but Dorsey failed to draft or sign a free agent safety.

After one week, it didn't appear that Dorsey's decision to cut kicker Ryan Succop in favor of an undrafted rookie was a good one, either.

The Titans were one of the five wins I had chalked up for the Chiefs this year, so I'll have to revise my prediction to 4-12, however, now that stud MLB Derrick Johnson is lost for the season, I'm left with no choice but to revise again to 3-13.

I'm getting sick of rooting for the Chiefs to tank for draft position, but that's exactly what I'm left to do for the remainder of this year.

Worse yet, I'm seriously questioning whether I want John Dorsey to make that pick in 2015.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Monday, September 1, 2014

Roger Goodell is Ruining the NFL for Me

It's not so much that I don't want domestic violence cases to result in a six game suspension, it's just that Roger Goodell seems to make up the rules as he goes along.

One summer a few years ago I was playing some drinking games at a friend's house and he was teaching me how to play beer pong.  As the night went on, several different circumstances arose and my friend remembered that those circumstances had corresponding rules that changed the outlook of the game.  To an inexperienced player like me, it was frustrating to go from jubilation to frustration after a big play was wiped by a rule I didn't know existed; and I couldn't help but wonder how many opportunities I missed earlier in night to take advantage of the rule if I had known about it then.

I applaud Goodell's open mind and willingness to adapt as the game evolves, but he is a hypocrite, too.

Goodell's modern NFL preaches safety.  He is known to make public appearances denouncing helmet-to-helmet hits and raising concussion awareness in youth football.  If Roger Goodell truly cared about the well-being of NFL players, then Wes Welker, who sustained his third concussion in the last 9 months during the Broncos' last pre-season game vs the Texans, would be forced to retire, and the Redskins' safety Brandon Meriweather, who has been flagged six times for illegal contact to a player's head, would be banned permanently from the NFL.

Meriweather is among the dirtiest players in recent NFL history.  He has no self-control, and is apathetic to the injuries he causes.  But after hitting the Bear's Brandon Marshall last year and seeing his two-game suspension reduced to one game, Meriweather raised some interesting points.

"I guess I just got to take people's knees out.  That's the only way. I would hate to end a guy's career over a rule, but I guess it's better other people than me getting suspended for longer.  You just have to go low now, man. You've got to end people's careers. You got to tear people's ACLs and mess up people's knees. You can't hit them high anymore," Meriweather said.  He's a menace, willing and able to blow out opponent's ACLs or deal life threatening hits to their heads.

"[Marshall] feels like I need to be kicked out of the league. I feel like people who beat their girlfriends should be kicked out of the league, too. ... You tell me who you'd rather have? Someone who plays aggressive on the field or someone who beat up their girlfriend," Meriweather asked.  Ahem, the ball is in your court, Mr. Goodell.  You have, apparently, answered Meriweather's question.  A second offense for hitting a domestic partner results in a lifetime NFL ban, but six illegal hits to the head followed by threats to intentionally take out player's knees is only a two-game suspension.  Goodell speaks about player safety, but his actions don't demonstrate it.  Goodell wants to lengthen the NFL regular season by at least two games; the Player's Association is against this move because of the rigorous dangers that comes with playing two extra games each year.  It seems that when the NFL has a chance to make more money, player safety doesn't matter.

This is further demonstrated by Goodell's insistence of getting every team on primetime TV by adding extra Thursday night games last season.  How is playing two football games in five days in any
way safe?

And, to be honest, I'm sick of the lip service paid to player safety.  I don't want to see a 15-yard personal foul called when a defensive end's thumb inadvertently grazes a quarterback's facemask.  I'm all for flagging the flagrant hits to a defensive player's head, but Goodell's rules have changed the game in a way that I just can't stand anymore.  Each and every Sunday we watch as the course and outcomes of games and seasons change because of ticky-tack personal fouls.  Listen to broadcasters and sports writers talk on television and on radio as they ask "Does anybody know what an illegal hit is anymore?"

I sure don't.  The rules are subjective and undefinable.  They are strict and mostly unnecessary.

And here's where my biggest concern is heading into the 2014 regular season:  Goodell is now interested in putting the clamps on defensive holding and illegal contact.  I had a hard time writing that sentence without getting nauseous.  Why?  Because, according to the Washington Post, in the entire 65-game pre-season in 2013 there were 38 defensive holding and 18 illegal contact penalties.   Through the first 49 pre-season games of 2014, there were 146 defensive holding flags and 84 for illegal contact!  If this trend continues into the regular season, it's going to result in 4-hour football games that end in 48-40 scores where play is stopped every few seconds so officials can pick up yellow laundry and announce penalties.

Roger Goodell has made watching football somewhat of a chore.  I'm not willing to go so far as to say I'm not going to watch games any longer, but I'm definitely going to watch a lot fewer games than I have in the past.  At one time, I could sit at watch two awful teams play on Thursday or Sunday night just because it was the NFL.  Now, I just don't have any interest in football unless the game is meaningful.  These preposterous rules and asinine hypocrisies have ruined what used to be my favorite sport.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

Sunday, August 3, 2014

2014 NFL Predictions

2014 NFL Predictions

* = Wild Card
** = First Round Bye
# = First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage


AFC

East
New England Patriots 11-5 #
Miami Dolphins 8-8
New York Jets 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10

North
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 8-8
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9

South
Houston Texans 11-5
Indianapolis Colts 9-7 *
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

West
San Diego Chargers 11-5 **
Denver Broncos 10-6 *
Oakland Raiders 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs 5-11

Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Andrew Luck          1. Jamaal Charles          1. AJ Green                   1. Patriots
2. Phillip Rivers           2. CJ Spiller                  2. Rob Gronkowski       2. Chargers
3. Peyton Manning      3. Giovanni Bernard      3. Demaryus Thomas     3. Bengals

NFC

East
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 8-8
Dallas Cowboys 5-11

North
Chicago Bears 12-4 **
Green Bay Packers 11-5 *
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 4-12

South
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Carolina Panthers 9-7
Tampa Bay Bucs 7-9
Atlanta Falcons 7-9

West
San Francisco 49ers 13-3 #
Seattle Seahawks 12-4 *
St. Louis Rams 8-8
Arizona Cardinals 6-10

Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Drew Brees             1. Marshawn Lynch      1. Calvin Johnson           1. Seahawks
2. Aaron Rodgers        2. LeSean Mccoy         2. Alshon Jeffrey            2. 49ers
3. Matthew Stafford    3. Eddie Lacy               3. Jordy Nelson              3. Panthers

MVP: Drew Brees
Rookie of the Year: Jadaveon Clowney
Defensive Player of the Year: Kam Chancellor

Playoffs
Texans over Colts
Broncos over Bengals
Seahawks over Eagles
Saints over Packers

Chargers over Broncos
Patriots over Texans
Bears over Seahawks
49ers over Saints

AFC Championship
Chargers over Patriots

NFC Championship
49ers over Bears

Super Bowl
49ers 36, Chargers 20

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres