Two weeks ago I laid out the formula I thought the Kansas City Chiefs could use to beat the Denver Broncos on the road. The Chiefs didn't exactly follow my plan.
I called for the Chiefs to score touchdowns in the Redzone and go for it on 4th-and-short. Andy Reid elected to kick a field goal on 4th down from the 2-yard line and elected to punt in enemy territory down by 17 early in the 4th quarter.
I figured they would have to punish Denver's every mistake. After a Derrick Johnson fumble recovery, FB Anthony Sherman gave the ball right back on the next play (while in the Redzone too, which violated the first rule as well).
I thought the Chiefs would have to win the special teams battle. I'll call that matchup a push.
The only thing the Chiefs did right, according to my own plan anyway, was throw the ball deep downfield and get Dwayne Bowe more involved in the offense.
But lastly, I thought they should remain aggressive on defense. I may be crazy, but I think injured outside pass rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston could be the least important players to the Chiefs' defense this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I couldn't have imagined saying that two weeks ago, but I watched that Week 11 game, and Houston and Hali were non-factors.
Browns QB Jason Campbell wrote the book on how to beat the Chiefs' defensive scheme, and Peyton Manning perfected the formula. Both players threw the ball less than three seconds after getting it in their hands, and Hali and Houston had no chance to make an impact. Kansas City has two sacks in the last four weeks, and none of them were registered by the elite pass rush duo.
Your move, Bob Sutton.
Call me crazy, but I hope the Chiefs simplify things just a little. There is no need to conjure up some complex blitz package in some futile attempt to confuse Peyton Manning. It just isn't going to happen. And even if such a plan were made, it wouldn't work. Manning knows he's a statue in the pocket, and he still has the quick release to get rid of the ball before any Chiefs pass rusher can count "three one-thousand." Maybe the trick is to rush three guys, drop eight into coverage, and force a couple coverage sacks. Maybe your nose tackle or linebackers tip a few balls at the line-of-scrimmage, or Manning airmails several balls due to double coverage.
The Chiefs won't sack Manning with Hali and Houston, and they won't sack him without those guys either. They won't sack Manning whether they blitz six guys, or send only three. Why force something that isn't there? Not only that, but CBs Marcus Cooper and Sean Smith have had a rocky past few weeks and it's highly likely the Chiefs need to help them out in coverage anyway.
It's rarely a good idea to rush three guys for an entire game, that's why I think when Sutton does choose to dial up the blitz he sends the double A-gap pressure that we didn't see vs Denver in Week 11. No matter how fast your speed rushers are, they can't get to Manning coming from the outside. But brute strength combined with a little speed coming up the middle might do it.
So, how would I go about beating the Broncos? 1) Score touchdowns in the Redzone 2) Win the special teams battle 3) Capitalize on every Denver miscue 4) Convert 4th downs and 5) Rush three and drop eight
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Monday, November 25, 2013
Why I Dislike Other Chiefs Fans
It seems I don't relate well with my fellow Chiefs fans.
Living in Northern Illinois I don't have much interaction with them, but beginning in approximately 2005 I began diligently posting in sports forums on Yahoo and other sports message boards. Since then, I started a blog (first hosted on Foxsports.com) and have written extensively in the past about my assessments of the team, reading and responding to comments left for me by fellow Chiefs fans. Since 2011, I've also joined Twitter and downloaded apps that allow me to listen to hosts and callers discuss Chiefs news on AM sports talk radio out of Kansas City.
I don't get along with other Chiefs fans. They remind me of Cubs fans from the 1990's--they almost seem proud to be Lovable Losers. I hear them talk about how nice it would be to earn the respect of the national media (Ahem, Pete Prisco) for their 9-2 start, but in the very next breath they'll say "Who cares if the Chiefs lost at home to the Chargers? They were only 2-14 last year, I'm just happy to make the playoffs this year!" I'm sorry, but I have no respect for somebody who thinks that way. It's a loser's mentality.
Maybe this train of thought originates from my upbringing in a big city. Chicagoans do not accept division titles as a successful season--even modern day Cubs fans; it's just not like the way it was in the 90's. The Bears fired their coach after a 10-6 season. I remember asking, after the Chiefs traded away Jared Allen in 2008, "what is the direction of this franchise?" Chiefs fans commented on my Foxsports.com blog post and said they expected "to compete in the AFC West by 2010." What!? A three year plan just to 'compete' in the division? That's a horrendous plan.
One fan told me he didn't care what they did in the playoffs as long as they beat the Denver Broncos at home in Week 13. There are no words to describe the anger and frustration that kind of thought process gives me.
A few weeks ago while listening to 610 Sports AM in Kansas City, the show's morning host, Bob Fescoe, compared the 2013 Chiefs to the 2011 49ers. He posed the question "If you could either play out the string, or settle on losing the AFC Championship, which would you take?" The question is so preposterous I assumed it was rhetorical. Why would anybody, ESPECIALLY a team sitting at 8-0, voluntarily give up a chance to win the Super Bowl, to settle on losing the AFC title game? But Fescoe, his co-host Josh Klinger, and the show's producer all said they'd choose to lose the AFC title game. Three weeks later, I'm still bewildered by this.
The Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since 1993, and apparently, busting that streak is so important to some Chiefs fans they'd forgo any chance of winning a Lombardi Trophy just to watch that playoff win drought come to an end (and presumably lose the next week). But the Chiefs haven't won a Superbowl since 1969, and that is by far the more embarrassing drought.
I fail to comprehend how 1 playoff win in the last 20 years is any less embarrassing than 0.
Fescoe said this morning on the radio that the most frustrating part of losing to the Chargers is the loss of respect nationally. No, the most frustrating part about losing to the Chargers is that the odds of attaining home field advantage in the AFC playoffs have now significantly decreased. Why are Chiefs fans so obsessed with trivial details instead of the big picture?
Who cares what the national media thinks about the Chiefs? Who cares if they beat the Broncos? Who cares about winning the division or one measly playoff game?
This is not your 2-14 Chiefs from 2012. These Chiefs are 9-2. In the NFL, there are no moral victories for teams that start 9-2 and don't win the Superbowl. Chiefs fans, you want respect from the national media? Then settle for nothing less than a Superbowl Championship. Act like nothing else matters and that anything short of a shiny, diamond ring on Andy Reid's finger is a failure. Why do I ask this of you? Because it's true.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Living in Northern Illinois I don't have much interaction with them, but beginning in approximately 2005 I began diligently posting in sports forums on Yahoo and other sports message boards. Since then, I started a blog (first hosted on Foxsports.com) and have written extensively in the past about my assessments of the team, reading and responding to comments left for me by fellow Chiefs fans. Since 2011, I've also joined Twitter and downloaded apps that allow me to listen to hosts and callers discuss Chiefs news on AM sports talk radio out of Kansas City.
I don't get along with other Chiefs fans. They remind me of Cubs fans from the 1990's--they almost seem proud to be Lovable Losers. I hear them talk about how nice it would be to earn the respect of the national media (Ahem, Pete Prisco) for their 9-2 start, but in the very next breath they'll say "Who cares if the Chiefs lost at home to the Chargers? They were only 2-14 last year, I'm just happy to make the playoffs this year!" I'm sorry, but I have no respect for somebody who thinks that way. It's a loser's mentality.
Maybe this train of thought originates from my upbringing in a big city. Chicagoans do not accept division titles as a successful season--even modern day Cubs fans; it's just not like the way it was in the 90's. The Bears fired their coach after a 10-6 season. I remember asking, after the Chiefs traded away Jared Allen in 2008, "what is the direction of this franchise?" Chiefs fans commented on my Foxsports.com blog post and said they expected "to compete in the AFC West by 2010." What!? A three year plan just to 'compete' in the division? That's a horrendous plan.
One fan told me he didn't care what they did in the playoffs as long as they beat the Denver Broncos at home in Week 13. There are no words to describe the anger and frustration that kind of thought process gives me.
A few weeks ago while listening to 610 Sports AM in Kansas City, the show's morning host, Bob Fescoe, compared the 2013 Chiefs to the 2011 49ers. He posed the question "If you could either play out the string, or settle on losing the AFC Championship, which would you take?" The question is so preposterous I assumed it was rhetorical. Why would anybody, ESPECIALLY a team sitting at 8-0, voluntarily give up a chance to win the Super Bowl, to settle on losing the AFC title game? But Fescoe, his co-host Josh Klinger, and the show's producer all said they'd choose to lose the AFC title game. Three weeks later, I'm still bewildered by this.
The Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since 1993, and apparently, busting that streak is so important to some Chiefs fans they'd forgo any chance of winning a Lombardi Trophy just to watch that playoff win drought come to an end (and presumably lose the next week). But the Chiefs haven't won a Superbowl since 1969, and that is by far the more embarrassing drought.
I fail to comprehend how 1 playoff win in the last 20 years is any less embarrassing than 0.
Fescoe said this morning on the radio that the most frustrating part of losing to the Chargers is the loss of respect nationally. No, the most frustrating part about losing to the Chargers is that the odds of attaining home field advantage in the AFC playoffs have now significantly decreased. Why are Chiefs fans so obsessed with trivial details instead of the big picture?
Who cares what the national media thinks about the Chiefs? Who cares if they beat the Broncos? Who cares about winning the division or one measly playoff game?
This is not your 2-14 Chiefs from 2012. These Chiefs are 9-2. In the NFL, there are no moral victories for teams that start 9-2 and don't win the Superbowl. Chiefs fans, you want respect from the national media? Then settle for nothing less than a Superbowl Championship. Act like nothing else matters and that anything short of a shiny, diamond ring on Andy Reid's finger is a failure. Why do I ask this of you? Because it's true.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Monday, November 11, 2013
How the Chiefs Could Beat the Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs will play the most important regular season game in franchise history at Sports Authority Field on Sunday Night Football. With the news that Peyton Manning will play this week, the 9-0 Chiefs with two weeks to prepare will be an 8-point underdog to the 8-1 Broncos. Though few in the world of NFL prognosticators predict Kansas City to defeat Denver, here are a few things I would do to prepare the Chiefs for Sunday's game.
Score touchdowns in the Red Zone
The Chiefs rank 26th in the NFL in TD% in the Red Zone, converting just 48.3% of Red Zone trips to 7 points. The Kansas City Chiefs must improve that statistic in the second half of the season, as the schedule gets tougher and six out of the remaining seven games come against good QBs who will score (Manning (twice), Phillip Rivers (twice), Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III). I would like to see the Chiefs consider any field position inside, say, the 25-yard line as 4-down territory. 4th-and-3 from the 15, or 4th-and-2 from the 10? Go for it. Even fake the FG once. The Chiefs cannot settle for three points vs one of the best offenses in NFL history. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense is not prone to giving up long scoring drives, so even if the 4th down play fails, they'll pin the Broncos deep, giving the defense a chance to get a turnover or 3-and-out to flip the field position again.
Stay aggressive on defense
I'm not necessarily talking about blitzing all game, even though I think that should and will be a part of defensive coordinator Bob Sutton's game plan. The Chiefs have played tight man-to-man press coverage all season and that cannot change. Denver is more of a quick strike passing game; relying on slants, screens, and drags to beat the coverage underneath. The Chiefs have got to take that way. CB Brandon Flowers, who figures to draw the assignment of covering Wes Welker in the slot, has got to disrupt Welker's patterns. In the middle of the field KC has got to hit TE Julius Thomas at the line and then let the athletic Eric Berry break up the pass at the second level. Marcus Cooper has been very good covering the deep routes, which bodes well since he will likely be assigned coverage to Denver's best deep threat, Eric Decker. Most importantly, the Chiefs, who have remarkably decreased the missed tackles since last season, have got to wrap up and tackle the receivers when they do make the catch. Don't let Manning turn those 3-yard patterns into 15-yard gains.
Find a second option on offense
It's taken nine games and yet the Chiefs still don't have a consistent offensive weapon other than Jamaal Charles. As they make their push into the playoffs, another option has to emerge. To me, it doesn't matter if it's a RB, TE, or WR, as long as it happens sooner than later, and Week 11 vs Denver would be a great time. My pick is Dwayne Bowe. Bowe got the big contract this past offseason and is on pace to set career lows in catches, yards, and touchdowns. It's certainly not a problem with effort, as Bowe has been phenomenal all season long in downfield blocking, and we all know that egotistical, effort-lacking WRs don't block. Bowe doesn't have the speed to get open deep, but he has the size and strength to fight for position and catch passes in tight coverage. He also has some of the best sideline awareness of any WR I've personally watched play; he's marvelous at keeping his toes in bounds and making the acrobatic plays on the outside. Kansas City has got to get him the ball more often, even if it means forcing into coverage once in a while.
Capitalize on every Denver mistake
The Broncos didn't get to be 8-1 by screwing up, and they won't make many mistakes on Sunday Night. So when they do, it's imperative the Chiefs make them pay. They've got to score off of every turnover; recover every loose ball; capitalize on every penalty; hit Manning every time he hesitates or a play breaks down; and seize momentum when the opportunity presents. The Chiefs aren't good enough let opportunities escape, so they have to pounce on the Broncos by punishing their every false move.
Win the battle of special teams
If we grant that both team's strength (Denver's offense and Kansas City's defense) neutralize the other team's strength, and that neither Denver's defense nor Kansas City's offense is anything about which to write home, the game could well be decided on special teams. The Chiefs must contain Trindon Holliday, as the Broncos figure to score enough points without any big plays from the return game. Meanwhile, if Dexter McCluster or Quinton Demps can break a few big returns it would be monumental to give QB Alex Smith a short field. K Ryan Succop, if called upon to kick, cannot miss any FG attempts and P Dustin Colquitt cannot shank any punts--he and the kick coverage unit have to to pin Manning and the Broncos deep a couple of times. In 2003, the Chiefs started 9-0 and got multiple big plays from Dante Hall in the return game in beating the Broncos that season. Dave Toub, KC's special teams coach, has got to find a way to make two big plays on special teams--block a kick, convert a fake kick to a first down, score a touchdown, punt the ball inside the 5-yard line multiple times.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
Score touchdowns in the Red Zone
The Chiefs rank 26th in the NFL in TD% in the Red Zone, converting just 48.3% of Red Zone trips to 7 points. The Kansas City Chiefs must improve that statistic in the second half of the season, as the schedule gets tougher and six out of the remaining seven games come against good QBs who will score (Manning (twice), Phillip Rivers (twice), Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III). I would like to see the Chiefs consider any field position inside, say, the 25-yard line as 4-down territory. 4th-and-3 from the 15, or 4th-and-2 from the 10? Go for it. Even fake the FG once. The Chiefs cannot settle for three points vs one of the best offenses in NFL history. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense is not prone to giving up long scoring drives, so even if the 4th down play fails, they'll pin the Broncos deep, giving the defense a chance to get a turnover or 3-and-out to flip the field position again.
Stay aggressive on defense
I'm not necessarily talking about blitzing all game, even though I think that should and will be a part of defensive coordinator Bob Sutton's game plan. The Chiefs have played tight man-to-man press coverage all season and that cannot change. Denver is more of a quick strike passing game; relying on slants, screens, and drags to beat the coverage underneath. The Chiefs have got to take that way. CB Brandon Flowers, who figures to draw the assignment of covering Wes Welker in the slot, has got to disrupt Welker's patterns. In the middle of the field KC has got to hit TE Julius Thomas at the line and then let the athletic Eric Berry break up the pass at the second level. Marcus Cooper has been very good covering the deep routes, which bodes well since he will likely be assigned coverage to Denver's best deep threat, Eric Decker. Most importantly, the Chiefs, who have remarkably decreased the missed tackles since last season, have got to wrap up and tackle the receivers when they do make the catch. Don't let Manning turn those 3-yard patterns into 15-yard gains.
Find a second option on offense
It's taken nine games and yet the Chiefs still don't have a consistent offensive weapon other than Jamaal Charles. As they make their push into the playoffs, another option has to emerge. To me, it doesn't matter if it's a RB, TE, or WR, as long as it happens sooner than later, and Week 11 vs Denver would be a great time. My pick is Dwayne Bowe. Bowe got the big contract this past offseason and is on pace to set career lows in catches, yards, and touchdowns. It's certainly not a problem with effort, as Bowe has been phenomenal all season long in downfield blocking, and we all know that egotistical, effort-lacking WRs don't block. Bowe doesn't have the speed to get open deep, but he has the size and strength to fight for position and catch passes in tight coverage. He also has some of the best sideline awareness of any WR I've personally watched play; he's marvelous at keeping his toes in bounds and making the acrobatic plays on the outside. Kansas City has got to get him the ball more often, even if it means forcing into coverage once in a while.
Capitalize on every Denver mistake
The Broncos didn't get to be 8-1 by screwing up, and they won't make many mistakes on Sunday Night. So when they do, it's imperative the Chiefs make them pay. They've got to score off of every turnover; recover every loose ball; capitalize on every penalty; hit Manning every time he hesitates or a play breaks down; and seize momentum when the opportunity presents. The Chiefs aren't good enough let opportunities escape, so they have to pounce on the Broncos by punishing their every false move.
Win the battle of special teams
If we grant that both team's strength (Denver's offense and Kansas City's defense) neutralize the other team's strength, and that neither Denver's defense nor Kansas City's offense is anything about which to write home, the game could well be decided on special teams. The Chiefs must contain Trindon Holliday, as the Broncos figure to score enough points without any big plays from the return game. Meanwhile, if Dexter McCluster or Quinton Demps can break a few big returns it would be monumental to give QB Alex Smith a short field. K Ryan Succop, if called upon to kick, cannot miss any FG attempts and P Dustin Colquitt cannot shank any punts--he and the kick coverage unit have to to pin Manning and the Broncos deep a couple of times. In 2003, the Chiefs started 9-0 and got multiple big plays from Dante Hall in the return game in beating the Broncos that season. Dave Toub, KC's special teams coach, has got to find a way to make two big plays on special teams--block a kick, convert a fake kick to a first down, score a touchdown, punt the ball inside the 5-yard line multiple times.
Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres
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