Big Money Streaming Networks and Exclusivity are Ruining Sports

In 2012 I started a new job that came with a territory in southern Wisconsin. Although I live in northern Illinois only 12 miles from the border, the nearest site for this job is about 50-55 minutes away. The furthest site, although small and only requiring a handful of on-site visits per month, is 2.5 hours away. Over the years I've lost track of how many times people have asked me why I don't move to the Janesville or Madison (Wisconsin) area to cut down on the commute. There are a handful of reasons, but chiefly among those is that I like watching live Chicago sports on TV and that moving would put those games out of market for me. This would mean that to watch the White Sox, Cubs, Bulls, and Blackhawks on TV, I'd have to buy NBA League Pass ($14.99/month), NHL Center Ice ($69.99 for the season), and MLB TV (Single Team package running about $119.99). In addition, I'd need a regular cable or satellite package to keep other sports staples like NHL Network, ESPN, MLB Network, NBA TV, NHL Network, TNT, and FS1. Factor in that I'm a fan of an out-of-market NFL team (the Kansas City Chiefs) and can't do without NFL Sunday Ticket (at a cost of about $350 for the season), and you can see why remaining in Illinois just makes a little bit more sense.

 

Millions sports fans in Illinois are unable to watch Chicago's baseball, hockey, and basketball teams on live TV due to their Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) being exclusive to certain TV providers.

From about 2015 until 2021, it was the golden age of a Chicago sports fan living in Winnebago County--millions of sports fans living in Cook, Lake, McHenry, Kane, DuPage, and Will counties can't relate to this. WCIU, Channel 26 in Chicago, had previously carried numerous Sox, Hawks, Cubs, and Bulls games from WGN Channel 9 all through the early 2000s until 2015. The games were only available in the Chicagoland area, and Winnebago County is still considered "Out of Market" for those games, which meant they were blacked out. We couldn't watch them even with a paid satellite subscription (I estimate I was probably paying $140/month for DirecTV at the time). To complicate this issue and make it 10x more asinine, even if I had been willing to subscribe to an MLB or NHL streaming service, the Blackhawks and White Sox games would still be blacked out on those packages because for some inconveniently stupid reason, I would have been considered "In-Market" according to the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball. So I was blacked out either way. In 2015 WCIU stopped airing games and all Sox, Hawks, and Bulls games were exclusively aired on Comcast Sports, which eventually became NBC Sports Chicago. The regional sports network (RSN) was picked up by every major carrier I know of, including DirecTV, XFinity, and YoutubeTV, and games were readily available for around $80-100 per month. Being that NFL Sunday Ticket was exclusive to DirecTV, I was bound to pay a little more for satellite, about $140 as previously mentioned.

I remember embarrassingly explaining this to co-workers when I told them the reason I didn't want to live in Wisconsin. I needed my Chicago sports and I was happily handing over $140/mo plus $360/yr for Sunday Ticket. It wasn't even a choice I had free will to even make. I was doing it. No questioning it whatsoever. Living without the Blackhawks and White Sox was simply not an option. It was a life I wanted no part of living.

I'm old enough to remember that in the mid-80s the White Sox unsuccessfully experimented with Pay-Per-View baseball games. I was born in 1980, but according to stories my dad told me, the White Sox were the more popular baseball team in Chicago in the 1960s and 70s. The games were aired nationally on WGN. In the 80s when Jerry Reinsdorf became chairman and instituted PPV, the Cubs stayed on national TV and drew an audience of tens of millions while the Sox lost millions of viewers in Illinois alone. Thankfully SportsVision, as Reinsdorf and his partners named it, was short lived and games were once again aired on cable in the late 1980s all the way until the early 2000s when WCIU started picking up several games per month.

The Blackhawks, too, partook in an economic strategy that alienated viewers and drove fans away. Long-time owner "Dollar Bill" Wirtz refused to air any home games on TV and also experimented with "HawkVision," a PPV channel for broadcasting Blackhawks games, in the early and mid-90s. When he died and his son took over operations in 2009, one of Rocky Wirtz' first orders of business was to air all Blackhawks games on Comcast SportsNet (CSN, the pre-cursor to NBC Sports Chicago).

Nowadays there are so many streaming services competing for exclusive rights to broadcast local and national sports that it's become overwhelming. In 2022 AppleTV began exclusively airing certain MLB games. Amazon Prime got exclusive rights to all Thursday Night Football games in 2023, and that same year the NFL also gave Peacock exclusive rights to a regular season and one post-season game. I had to steal a friend's password to Peacock just so I didn't have to miss the Chiefs-Dolphins Wild Card game. ESPN+ has exclusivity for certain Monday Night football games and many NHL and NBA games in 2024. And for 2024, Netflix paid $150 million for exclusive rights to broadcast TWO NFL games on Christmas Day. It's officially out of control.

It's not going to get any better, either. In fact, it literally can only get worse. Apple, Amazon, NBC (owner of Peacock), Disney (owner of ESPN), and Netflix are all multi-billion dollar businesses and there are dozens of smaller guys chomping at the bit to get a piece of this industry. I don't see it ever going back to "the good old days" of a $80/mo cable package getting you all the live sports you ever wanted.

It's only a matter of time before the NFL adds a weekly Friday game that Netflix will pay out the ass for. AppleTV is going to keep adding more and more MLB games, and it won't surprise me at all if they get into the NFL ring somehow. Who knows? I predict there could be a Super Bowl exclusively aired on one of these streaming networks in the near future. Would Apple be willing to outbid NBC, Fox, and CBS, who each pay $3 BILLION (with a B) to the NFL to exclusively broadcast the Super Bowl each season? Why the fuck wouldn't they? And if they would, why would the NFL say no?

It wasn't that long ago I was paying the $140/mo for DirecTV plus the $360/yr for Sunday Ticket and had every single NFL game for the entire season. Now I need to pay $139 for Amazon Prime, $7/mo for Netflix, $7.99/mo for Peacock, and $11.99/mo for ESPN+ in addition to my $75/mo for YoutubeTV.

Max (the name HBO gives their streaming service) has added NHL and NBA games within the past couple of years, but the games are still also available on TNT and TBS so it's not an exclusive deal. Don't you think they want to pay a little more to get exclusive rights to those games and/or others? Everybody wants in on the NFL. It's too profitable. Hulu, Paramount Plus, Fubo, and Sling probably all want to slide in, too.

If the NFL would air a Chiefs playoff game exclusively on Peacock, I don't think the NCAA would hesitate for a damn second to sell exclusive March Madness games to some high bidder. You want to watch the Rose Bowl? You better pay for Peacock. Your team made the NBA Finals? You better pay for Paramount+ or your not watching the games.

Once again, It's never going back again. It's never going to get better or cheaper or more convenient. It's only going to get harder and more expensive and more inconvenient.

Marquee Network began exclusively airing all Cubs games in 2020. At the time I was a DirecTV subscriber but when I switched to YoutubeTV in 2023 in order to get access to NFL Sunday Ticket, I forfeited any privilege I had to watch live Cubs games because Youtube does not carry Marquee Network. I never thought Chicago's other three sports teams would be stupid enough remove access to live games for their fans like Jerry Reinsdorf and Bill Wirtz tried in the 1980s. But alas, here we are... 

As of October 1, 2024, NBC Sports Chicago no longer exists and all White Sox, Bulls, and Blackhawks games are now on the brand new Chicago Sports Network (CHSN), which is exclusive only to DirecTV. Almost nobody in the Chicagoland area has DirecTV anymore, mostly due to it's outrageous price and unreliable service relative to cable or streaming networks, meaning millions of sports fans in Illinois can no longer watch these three teams without an RSN, and the only way to get the RSN is to switch packages, which may mean you give something else up. In my case, for example, I'm not willing to go without NFL Sunday Ticket, a YoutubeTV exclusive. So my options are either pay an obscene amount of money for both (Youtube and DirecTV), or forego one of them. Being that the Cubs created Marquee four years ago and Youtube still doesn't carry that, it is highly unlikely they will ever carry CHSN.

Within a few weeks after the launch of CHSN, and taking note of current trends, I can see what's about to happen and I'm not going to play the game. I'm bowing out. I'm going to keep paying for YoutubeTV and NFL Sunday Ticket for as long as Patrick Mahomes remains a Kansas City Chief--I'm kind of pot committed here and they don't look like they are going to stop providing high quality entertainment any time soon. He'll retire in about 10 years and there's a really high probability that at that time, having gone a decade without hockey, basketball, or baseball, I'll have lost any and all interest in the Chicago teams I never thought I could live without. So I'll cancel YoutubeTV and be done with sports. I'm not going to continue to jump through hoops and pay more money as all these streaming networks compete to take bigger and bigger bites out of the apple, and for every NFL game aired on ESPN+ or Netflix, it devalues the Sunday Ticket more and more. And do you think Youtube is going to start charging less because fewer games are being aired on Sunday? LOL...

If I pay for a package that includes CHSN just to watch the Blackhawks and Bulls, it's only a matter of time before Amazon gets exclusive Friday night NBA games and Peacock gets Hockey Night in Canada, meaning my RSN  loses value, too. Fuck it. I quit.

There are ways around it, sure. But I want to watch the games how I'm accustomed to watching the games: In 4k on my 65" TV with surround sound, not through some illegal stream on my phone with choppy video and Spanish commentators. As more and more networks cut down on password sharing (ala Netflix) that's going to make things harder in the future. 

It's only been a little over a month since I found out that Chicago Sports Network is a DirecTV exclusive and I won't be watching any Blackhawks or Bulls games this season and I've already noticed a drastically diminished interest in sports. Six months ago I would have been ecstatic about a Yankees-Dodgers World Series, but I legit only found enough time to watch about 40 pitches (of Game 3) and didn't even have the games on in the background while I did whatever else I was doing during that time. I've chosen to play video games instead of watch Sunday Night Football for the past three weeks straight. I haven't watched a single down of college football, and I'm typing this blog post right now instead of watching NFL Sunday.

I just can't continue being a fan when sports are becoming too expensive and too inconvenient to watch.

2023 White Sox Built Similarly to 2005 Team -- And Not in a Good Way

 

Bobby Jenks: One of the luckiest acquisitions
in White Sox history

White Sox fans remember the 2005 team with reverence and for good reason: They were entertaining; an all-around good team; and won the only championship in any of our lifetimes. They had grit, spirit, and talent. They did it all. Pitching, defense, timely hitting, and base running. One thing many Sox fans are reluctant to admit, however, is that then-GM Kenny Williams was insanely lucky that offseason when putting together that team. We may not want to acknowledge that our beloved team was lucky on the field--although I would argue that ALL championship winning teams in any sport are lucky to some degree (avoiding injury, one or two guys having a career season unexpectedly, facing tough opponents when they happen to be playing their worst, etc), but it doesn't take anything away from that 2005 World Series championship to admit the team was lucky on the field. However, this article isn't about on-field luck. I'm talking about off-season luck. How did Kenny Williams build that 2005 championship and how does it relate to the 2023 team?

The White Sox entered that off-season with arguably their three biggest stars in perilous situations. OF Magglio Ordonez was set to become an unrestricted free agent and OF Carlos Lee had only two years left on his deal. Future Hall of Famer 1B Frank Thomas had suffered a serious injury in 2004 that would keep him out for most of the 2005 season. Kenny Williams allowed Ordonez to walk away for nothing and sign with division rival Detroit. He traded Carlos Lee to the Brewers for former Rookie of the Year runner-up Scott Podsednik, who had hit only .244 with an anemic 75 OPS+ in 2004 and Luis Vizcaino, who had a 4.97 ERA from 2003-2004 to go along with a 5.05 FIP those two seasons. He retained 34-year-old Carl Everett to be the DH. Everett drew no comparisons to Big Frank. Carl hit only .260 with 7 home runs, playing only 82 games in 2004. 

The 2005 White Sox were not off to a good start so far. Did Williams make any big splashes? Did he add exciting new pieces to the core? Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Nomar Garciaparra, Adrian Beltre, Jeff Kent, JD Drew, and Roger Clemens highlighted the top free agents of the 2004-2005 offseason. Surely, if the White Sox would go on to improve from their 83-79 finish in 2004 and win the 2005 World Series, they would have signed at least one if not two or three of those guys... right?

They did no such thing. "Too expensive," said Jerry Reinsdorf *

* = Okay, we don't know that he actually said this. But probably.

The Sox subtracted from their core and went on to pursue complimentary and high risk pieces. They got Jermaine Dye to play RF, replacing All-Star Ordonez. Dye had been a solid MLB player, but was coming off a severe lower leg injury that many thought would end his career. Nobody could have possibly foreseen him hitting .274 with 31 home runs in 2005, let alone just being healthy enough to play in 145 games. Podsednik replaced Lee in LF and although he remained an offensive and defensive liability the entire 2005 season, he stole 59 bases and provided some magic spark from the leadoff spot. Somehow, it just... worked out. Vizcaino magically had a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings pitched. Most of those innings came when the Sox were trailing or ahead by a lot, but many came when the bullpen was tired or injured and Vizcaino needed to save the day.

Shingo Takatsu failed miserably in the closer role, but no problem, because Kenny Williams signed journeyman Dustin Hermanson, a swingman, who just crushed it as a closer, saving 34 games with a 2.04 ERA. This would be akin to Vince Velazquez putting up those exact numbers for the 2022 White Sox. And when, late in the season, Hermanson was injured, Williams called upon AA callup Bobby Jenks, a 5th round draft pick of the Angels who the Sox claimed off waivers in December of 2004, to close out games in the playoffs. And he did. Nobody could explain how this all worked. It just fucking did. Quite luckily.

But Williams' and the Sox' luck didn't end there. No. Kenny Williams batted 1.000 in the 2004 off-season. He did the gambler's equivalent of putting the last $12.45 in his FanDuel account on some wacky, 19-leg Same Game Parlay, and it hit to net him over $1,210,050. 

The Sox needed a second basement. No problem. Williams signed Japanese unknown sensation Tadahito Iguchi--without ever scouting him in person! He watched a few highlights of him on VHS and just brought him in. He paid $2,300,000. Chump change, really. Not quite the $8,250,000 the Cubs paid for Garciaparra that same off-season. Iguchi hit .271 with 15 home runs in 2005, and created lightning in a bottle with Podsednik from the 1-2 spots at the top of the order. Who would have predicted that?

The Sox were set to open the season with [checks notes] Chris Widger at Catcher? Who the fuck is Chris Widger? Widger did not even play Major League Baseball in 2004. From 1995-2003 he had a lifetime .702 OPS.

In December of 2004 the San Fransisco Giants released A.J. Pierzynski, making him a free agent. Although details for the reason of his release remain sketchy, the rumors were that Pierzynski was hated in the clubhouse by his Giants teammates. If you ever saw Pierzynski play baseball, it's not difficult to understand why that might be the case. Williams risked it, signing Pierzynski in January 2005. AJ hit 21 doubles and 18 home runs for the '05 South Siders, and was a positive in the clubhouse for the entirety of his Sox career, beloved by fans and teammates. 

Could the Sox really afford to stick with Juan Uribe at SS and Joe Crede at 3B? They had underwhelmed in seasons prior, but in 2005, they improved. 

The Sox had stalwart Damaso Marte in the bullpen, and they brought in Hermanson and Vizcaino in the off-season, too. But they had no real middle relief threats. Enter Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts. Politte had a 4.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2004, but in 2005 he was unhittable, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Poof. Out of absolutely nowhere, 2005 Cliff Politte was 2015 Wade Davis. And Cotts? He entered the 2005 season with 78.2 career IP and a 6.06 ERA. But in 2005 he was 2016 Andrew Miller. Cotts had a 1.94 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Neither Politte nor Cotts could ever come anywhere near those numbers before or after the 2005 season. They were lucky, one-year, flashes in the pan. Kenny Williams looked like a goddamn genius.

Then there's Jon Garland, who had entered the 2005 season with a career 45-51 record, 4.68 ERA and 5.09 FIP. Garland absolutely dominated in 2005, going 18-10 to lead the team in wins, and posting a 3.50 ERA while making his first (and only) All-Star game appearance and finishing SIXTH in Cy Young voting. You can't even make this shit up.

In a 2004 mid-season trade with the Yankees, Williams and Brian Cashman made a deal, swapping two bad pitchers for each other. The Sox sent struggling Esteban Loaiza to New York for 32-year-old Jose Contreras. Contreras had a 5.50 ERA in 2004, led the league with 17 wild pitches, and walked 84 batters in 170.1 IP. He morphed into a completely different pitcher by 2005. He was one of FOUR Sox pitchers to toss over 200 innings, and compiled a 3.61 ERA. By late in the season, he was the hottest pitcher on the team, and started Game 1 of every playoff series. He was dominant in the playoffs, too, going 3-1, including a CG in the ALCS.

Williams brought in 39-year-old Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez. All he did was get two pop-outs and a strike out in a bases loaded, nobody out situation in a playoff game. Totally clutch. Possibly saved the season. 

Kenny Williams worked more miracles that off-season than Jesus. There hasn't been anything like it since. And therein lies the fucking problem... Every year, the White Sox seem to try to re-create that magical off-season luck. They've been unsuccessful, not surprisingly. Lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice. You don't hear of somebody winning the lottery twice in their lifetime. Life just doesn't work that way and neither does baseball.

The White Sox were good enough to win a grand total of 0 playoff series in 2020, 2021, and 2022, the first few years of their alleged contention window after suffering through a decade of trying to win, but losing anyway, and then three seasons of losing on purpose. They didn't need auxiliary pieces to compliment their "highly successful" core of superstars. They needed to add core superstars. They chose not to.

The 2022 White Sox finished 81-81. They had mediocre starting pitching (15th in ERA), bullpen (19th in ERA), hitting (18th in OPS), they had many injuries to players who have repeatedly showed an inability to stay healthy for a full season and they lacked organizational depth to back them up, and they were not good at baserunning or defense either. The 2022 Sox did absolutely nothing well. There was not one single aspect of their team that was a strength. Often times a sports fan can look at a struggling baseball team and say "Yeah they might have some weaknesses with pitching, but man, they hit the ball out of the ballpark, and they can get hot and bomb some teams out of the playoffs." The Sox couldn't do that in 2022. They had nothing that anybody feared. 

They let their best hitter, statistically speaking, Jose Abreu, who was also their team captain, walk away in free agency for nothing. It was a move I could understand being that their defense was so repulsive in 2022 and moving the young Andrew Vaughn to 1B and replacing Vaughn and OF Eloy Jimenez (the new DH) in the outfield would be a massive upgrade in LF and presumably RF defensively. But do the Sox really think Andrew Benintendi adequately replaces Jose Abreu's bat? I sure as fuck don't. Benintendi provides a much needed left hander in the lineup but the White Sox hit only 149 home runs in 2022, ranking 22nd in MLB. They needed a monster bat. They needed somebody on the level of Aaron Judge. Don't laugh. I'm serious. I can't stress this enough: The White Sox core was not good enough in 2020, 2021, or 2022. They needed an upgrade to their core, not role players like Andrew Benintendi.

The Sox couldn't afford to enter 2023 praying for luck that rookie Oscar Colas is just going to be a star right away, or that Gavin Sheets magically figures out, not only how to play adequate right field, but make contact consistently enough at the plate. They currently have only two outfielders on their 40-man roster (Benintendi and Luis Robert). That's absolutely inexcusable!

And speaking of Robert, do the Sox just hope and pray he's magically going to stay healthy and play well this season? In the Covid-shortend 2020 season, Robert played 56 out of 60 games, but he hit only .233. The last two seasons he's put together a superb 129 OPS+ but has played in only 68 and 98 games. 

And he's not the only position player who is always injured.

Yasmani Grandal has played in 93 and 98 games the last two seasons. Tim Anderson: 123 and 79. Jimenez: 55 and 84. Yoan Moncada played in only 104 last season, and he hasn't had a good season at the plate since 2019. In his magical 2019 season Moncada flashed a 140 OPS+ but has only had a 98 OPS+ since, and was at a paltry 76 in 2022. Jimenez and Robert show flashes of stardom but are also prone to long slumps and are wildly inconsistent. And Tim Anderson is an exciting hitter and emotional leader but his defensive metrics have been absolutely fucking terrible since 2019, and well below average overall for his entire career.

The White Sox did nothing to address second base. They didn't even try! Their plan is hope that one of their uninspiring rookies like Lenyn Sosa, Bryan Ramos, or Romy Gonzalez somehow get good at baseball really quick. And if they all fail, they fall back to "Old Reliable": Leury Garcia. puke_emoji.gif.

On the pitching front, Lucas Giolito was awful last year, posting a 4.90 ERA and looking completely lost. Lance Lynn was injured, then returned and looked horrendous before finishing strong. He's 36 this season and we have no idea what he can bring this year. Michael Kopech, stop me if I'm repeating myself, is always injured and always inconsistent. The Sox let their second best pitcher, Johnny Cueto go for nothing, again, a move we could understand given that Cueto was 36 last year, but to replace him with only Mike Clevinger was unforgivable. Clevinger didn't pitch in 2021 due to surgery, and in 2022 he had a 4.33 ERA and 0.6 WAR. Plus, he's an assclown and a bad teammate. The Sox didn't need Clevinger to replace Cueto. They needed Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander.

And the bullpen? Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer are both coming off serious injuries. The Sox are just hoping they are healthy and good. Bummer is maddeningly inconsistent, so good luck. Joe Kelly, Matt Foster, and Jake Diekeman were train wrecks last season. Kendell Graveman was fine... sometimes. The Sox are just going to hope that Reynaldo Lopez can be halfway decent and pray to Thor, or Joe Pesci, or whoever, that Tanner Banks, Franklin German, Jimmy Lambert and a whole bunch of other guys who sound exactly like 2004 Politte and Cotts become like 2005 Politte and Cotts overnight.

Oh, and now Liam Hendrix is out indefinitely with a serious illness and Clevinger's future is in doubt, due to credible domestic violence allegations. The guy is a total dirtbag and shouldn't have ever been signed.

I'm a lifelong, diehard White Sox fan but I hope they lose a lot of games in 2023. The Vegas sportsbooks have their win total O/U set at 83.5 which seems about right, but I hope they finish well under .500. 

I'm sick of the White Sox attempting the same 2004 plan again every single goddamn offseason.

That was the luckiest shit any baseball GM has ever pulled and it will never happen again. If the White Sox are to ever win another World Series, they are going to have do what almost every other World Series winner does: Spend a lot of  fucking money on free agents and make bold additions to an existing core of elite, healthy players--which the Sox don't have. 

Follow: @JimScheffres

2016 NFL Predictions

2016 NFL Predictions

2016 NFL Predictions
* = Wild Card
** = First Round Bye
# = First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage


AFC

East
New England Patriots 10-6
Buffalo Bills 8-8
New York Jets 8-8
Miami Dolphins 4-12


North
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 #
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Baltimore Ravens 6-10


South
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Houston Texans 10-6 *
Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9
Tennessee Titans 6-10


West
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 **
Oakland Raiders 10-6 *
Denver Broncos 7-9
San Diego Chargers 3-13



Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. B. Roethlisberger     1. Le'Veon Bell              1. Antonio Brown           1. Texans
2. Andrew Luck           2. Lamar Miller              2. De'Andre Hopkins       2. Chiefs
3. Tom Brady              3. LeSean McCoy          3. Rob Gronkowski         3. Raiders

NFC

East
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles  7-9
Dallas Cowboys 5-11


North
Green Bay Packers 12-4 **
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 5-11


South
Carolina Panthers 13-3 #
Atlanta Falcons 9-7 *
New Orleans Saints 4-12
Tampa Bay Bucs 4-12


West
Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6 *
St. Louis Rams 4-12
San Francisco 49ers 2-14


Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Aaron Rodgers             1. Adrian Peterson      1. Odell Beckham Jr.         1. Panthers
2. Cam Newton                2. Todd Gurley            2. Julio Jones                    2. Seahawks
3. Russell Wilson             3. Eddie Lacy             3. Dez Bryant                    3. Cardinals

MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt

Playoffs
Patriots over Raiders
Texans over Colts
Seahawks over Falcons
Cardinals over Giants

Chiefs over Patriots
Steelers over Texans
Cardinals over Packers
Panthers over Seahawks

AFC Championship
Steelers over Chiefs

NFC Championship
Panthers over Cardinals

Super Bowl
Panthers 26, Steelers 24

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

What Has to Go Right for the 2015 Chiefs to Make the Playoffs

I'm not certain whether the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs have improved from their 2014 9-7 season, but I do think that the AFC West is a much weaker division overall.  Most notably, with Peyton Manning being a year older, and Denver losing their entire coaching staff and top TE Julius Thomas, the Broncos will be worse than 12-4.  But have the Chiefs closed the gap enough to win the division?  Here is what I think has to go right with this year's team in order for the Chiefs to make the playoffs.

1. Justin Houston Has to Have Another Phenomenal Season

I'll define "phenomenal" as starting at least 14 games and getting at least 17 sacks.  It's going to be difficult for him to repeat his 22-sack performance from last year, but now that he's been given the big contract, he's got to own it.  The key to one of the NFL's best past defenses last season, Houston has to be that cog that drives the team again this year.

2. The Other OLBs (Tamba Hali and Dee Ford) Have to Combine for 10 Sacks

Houston cannot do it all by himself, and when he's right, he draws attention away from the offense's left side, so the other starter(s) have to take advantage of that.  I don't care of Hali gets 9 sacks and Ford only gets 1, or if they each get 5, but they have to produce a double-digit sack count to really give the Chiefs that two-headed monster in the pass rush.

3. Another WR besides Jeremy Maclin has to be Serviceable

I just double checked the Chiefs' depth chart and winced.  I don't know how John Dorsey can possibly continue to roll out atrocious starting wide receivers and think the Chiefs' offense can be anything above mediocre.  This year, Albert Wilson gets the nod.  Between Wilson, Jason Avant, and rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley, somebody has got to put together a 40+ catch, 4 touchdown season or else I don't think Kansas City can score enough points to hang with the big boys.  True, they can still rely on Travis Kelce, Jamaal Charles, and Maclin, but WR has been a noticeable weakness for KC for a few years running now, and it has to change this season.

4. Andy Reid and Doug Pederson Have to Find Creative Ways to Hide a Hideous Offensive Line

Just like with the WRs, the offensive line has been a glaring weakness for years on Missouri's west side.  The Chiefs will have four new starters this season (with Eric Fisher counting as a new starter since he'll be playing a different position), but I'm not impressed with the progress and I don't think the changes will help much.  So the coaching staff has to scheme the weakness.  They could let QB Alex Smith do short drops with short passes to Kelce, Charles, and reserve wideout De'Anthony Thomas, and that will actually suit the Chiefs' strengths.  Maybe that was their plan all along.  Sooner or later though, they have to turn those short passes into long runs, or take chances downfield to stretch the defense, as Kansas City has not managed to score a lot of points against those Cover 1 fronts.

5. The Chiefs Must be "Average" in Stopping the Run

Last year, Kansas City was 5th worst in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 3rd worst in yards per carry allowed.  I hesitate to even mention the names "Mike DeVito" and "Derrick Johnson" because I really have no idea what to expect from them this season coming off Achilles injuries.  Ditto "Eric Berry" who finished chemotherapy treatment for his treatable form of cancer.  If none of those three players can be difference makers, then who will it be?  Being that the offense isn't going to blow opponents away this year, I expect lots of close games, and that means for the Chiefs to have a successful season they have to be able to slow down the opponent's running game in the 4th quarter.

6. Jamaal Charles Has got to be Healthy

Charles said he played most of last year hurt and he had the worst season of his career.  Mind you, he was still pretty good.  But "pretty good" isn't going to cut it if the Chiefs hope to sneak into the playoffs this year.  Charles has to start all 16 games and get his yards-per-carry average back over 5.0 (he has a career 5.5 ypc average, the second best by a RB of all time).

When it's all said and done, I've got the Chiefs going 9-7, which is exactly where they finished last season.  Will it be enough to make the playoffs?   I give the rest of my AFC and NFC team record and playoff predictions here.  

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

2015 NFL Predictions

2015 NFL Predictions
* = Wild Card
** = First Round Bye
# = First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage


AFC

East
New England Patriots 11-5 **
Miami Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 5-11


North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 3-13


South
Indianapolis Colts 12-4 #
Houston Texans 10-6 *
Tennessee Titans 4-12
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

West
Denver Broncos 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 *
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10


Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Andrew Luck          1. LeSean Mccoy          1. T.Y. Hilton                   1. Texans
2. B. Roethlisberger    2. Jamaal Charles         2. Rob Gronkowski          2. Chiefs
3. Tom Brady              3. Melvin Gordon         3. Demaryus Thomas       3. Bills

NFC

East
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles  8-8
New York Giants 8-8
Washington Redskins 4-12


North
Green Bay Packers 12-4 #
Detroit Lions 8-8
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 6-10


South
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
New Orleans Saints 9-7 *
Carolina Panthers 9-7
Tampa Bay Bucs 4-14


West
Seattle Seahawks 12-4 **
St. Louis Rams 9-7 *
Arizona Cardinals 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 4-14

Top 3 Passers             Top 3 Rushers              Top 3 Recievers             Top 3 Defenses
1. Aaron Rodgers             1. Adrian Peterson     1. Odell Beckham Jr.         1. Seahawks
2. Matt Ryan                    2. DeMarco Murray   2. Calvin Johnson              2. Rams
3. Tony Romo                  3. Marshawn Lynch   3. Dez Bryant                     3. Packers

MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon
Defensive Player of the Year: Jadaveon Clowney

Playoffs
Texans over Broncos
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Saints
Falcons over Rams

Colts over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Cowboys

AFC Championship
Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship
Packers over Seahawks

Super Bowl
Colts 32, Packers 28

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

White Sox Won't Win Again Until They Stop Caring About Profits

For as far back as I can remember (I'm 34 years old), the Chicago White Sox have been in a precarious situation and there is no foreseeable way out in the near future.  That situation, of course, is that they play second fiddle to the Cubs, whose fanbase is not only greater in number, but also seems to care less about the team's record when deciding whether or not to buy baseball tickets.  The White Sox, therefore, have to win games, or else, they don't draw fans or maximize profits.

This entails that the Sox, quite literally, can't afford to put together successive losing seasons in order to put on a full rebuild.  And, unfortunately, for the 3rd time since the 2007 season, I am going to write a column opining for exactly that.

The Sox's front office is handcuffed.  They can't throw big money to lure the top-notch free agents, and when they land the second tier free agents, bad things usually happen.  Four years ago, Adam Dunn was Exhibit A, and this season, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche are challenging to be 1A and 1B.  Through 40 games, Cabrera, who signed a 3-year $42 million contract, has posted a .570 OPS and -0.3 WAR, and LaRoche (2-years, $25 million) has a .712 OPS (almost .100 points below his career average).  I should note, to be fair, that David Robertson is having a spectacular season and figures to be the most successful big money free agent the White Sox have signed since inking Albert Belle back in 1997.

As a rule of thumb, I try to withhold judgement on Major League Baseball players and teams until Memorial Day, to gather a decent sample size.  On the day before Memorial Day, the White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League and second fewest overall.  They have the fewest home runs, fewest triples, and second fewest doubles in the A.L., so it should go as no surprise that their team dead last team SLG% of .358 is 40 points below league average.  They posses a paltry .666 OPS.

The White Sox have the second fewest walks in the A.L, too and of recent, have begun striking out at alarming rates.  In a recent 4-game home series vs the Indians in which the Sox lost 3 games and scored 8 runs total, the team struck out 42 times with only 11 walks.  Not only are the Sox failing at epic rates to reach base, but they are making outs at sickening rates even when they do reach.  They've stolen only 9 bases while getting thrown out 12 times (dead last in MLB), have been picked off once, and have 19 outs on the basepaths (third worst in MLB).  They're baserunning is flat out atrocious.

Chicago's south side team has a -34 run differential and play in the same division as the Kansas City Royals, who at +70 own the best record in MLB.  Not too far behind Kansas City is Detroit's Tigers, who have some issues of their own but will figure to sit comfortably in second place for some time.  I thought the Sox could win at least 86 games and contend for a Wild Card spot this year, but it was probably naive of me to think a team featuring Tyler Flowers and Conor Gillaspie in the every day lineup and John Danks and Hector Noesi at the back of the rotation could possibly finish that many games over .500.  I wasn't counting on those four players to contribute much anyway, but I was counting on guys like Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jeff Samardzija, and Alexei Ramirez to play a high level, and, frankly, they have disappointed.

In 2013, I wrote that the White Sox's rebuild is 6 years over due, and detailed how much different the team could be had they traded valuable veterans such as Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski, and Matt Thornton back in 2007, when they finished 72-90.  In addition to saving hundreds of millions of dollars by avoiding paying those players and signing expensive free agents, the Sox would have replenished their minors and, I firmly believe, would have one of the best young teams in the American League right now.

The 2015 Chicago White Sox are an underwhelming bunch and there is little hope of turning this season around.  There are two obvious players on the roster who could help the Sox get younger and shore up positions of dire need (catcher and third base, to start)--Samardzija and Ramirez.  The sooner they advertise themselves as sellers the better, as teams are more likely to give up more talent in early June as opposed to late July, since their newly acquired veterans get to play more games for their franchise.  Cabrera and LaRoche are two players I wouldn't mind see go, however, their value is almost zero and the Sox would have to pay a significant portion of their remaining salaries which is something they seldom show any interest in doing.

Should the White Sox entertain offer for Sale, Robertson, Jose Quinana, and Jose Abreu?  I believe they should.  If they are going into full-rebuild mode (as I believe they should), they are not likely to be contending again while those players are under contract.  Sale, in particular, would be worth a king's ransom in the trade market.  The Sox could easily pick up 5 or 6 young players for him, and at least 4 of them would be the other team's top prospects.

But alas, this is a fanciful wish, because the White Sox know that by going into full rebuild mode, they will fail to draw fans to the park.  So instead, they'll throw bad money onto bad money.  They'll try to shore up a weakness by trading one of their few remaining worthwhile prospects for marginal Major Leaguer.  They'll lose Samardzija for nothing in December, and they'll hang onto guys like Sale and Abreu for years until their age (and value) diminish and they won't win nary a playoff game in the process.  If White Sox ownership could deal with two or three bad years at the turnstiles, they could significantly improve their future chances at a Championship.  But they can't.  And they won't.

Follow me on Twitter: @JimScheffres

A Look Ahead to 2015

January

• Alabama beats Oregon 34-30 to win the college football national championship.  Amari Cooper is the game's MVP.
• Max Scherzer re-signs with the Detroit Tigers, inking a 10-year, $224 million deal.
• LeBron James returns from his 2-week injury, scoring 34 points and dishing 10 assists in a win over the Clippers.
• Aaron Rodgers throws 5 Touchdowns in Cowboy Stadium as the Packers defeat Dallas 35-21 in a playoff classic.
• The Chicago Bears announce that Doug Marrone is their new coach.  Mike Shanahan is named coach of the Atlanta Falcons.
• The Minnesota Vikings release RB Adrian Peterson.  He ends up signing with the Texans.

February

• Rodgers is named Super Bowl MVP, as Green Bay beats the New England Patriots 26-24.  Rob Gronkowski has 160 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss.
• The San Francisco 49ers name former Broncos OC Adam Gase as their new head coach.  Rex Ryan becomes the coach of the Oakland Raiders.
• The Tennessee Titans trade a conditional draft pick to the Bears for QB Jay Cutler.
• The Kings' Jonathan Quick records back-to-back shutouts at home against the Red Wings and Senators.

March

• In an epic rivalry matchup for the NCAA basketball championship, Louisville defeats Kentucky 71-67.
• Future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson announces his retirement from the NFL.  He signs a deal with ESPN to work as a studio analyst for college football.
• Ndamukong Suh re-signs with the Detroit Lions, netting the biggest ever contract in NFL history for a defensive lineman.  The Chiefs make OLB Justin Houston the highest paid LB in the NFL.  
• 39-year-old Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees opens the season as the highest ever paid backup DH.

April

• Pitcher James Shields shakes off the playoff rust and goes 6.2 IP for the win for his new team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
• The Tampa Bay Bucs select Oregon QB Marcus Mariotta as the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft.
• The Buffalo Bills trade up at the end of the first round to select troubled Florida State QB Jameis Winston.
• Two former Chicago Bears defensive stalwarts make the news.  LB Lance Briggs joins his former coach Lovie Smith in Tampa Bay, and CB Charles Tillman officially announces his retirement.
• Dez Bryant is not able to reach a long-term agreement with the Cowboys, and he signs a 1-year Franchise tender.

May

• The Detroit Lions sign WR Reggie Wayne to a 1-year contract.
• White Sox SP Chris Sale lands on the disabled list, again, with another minor left shoulder injury.  He returns two weeks later showing no signs of pain.
• The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton crushes a 490 foot home run off Madison Bumgarner, nto the drink over the right-field fence at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

June

• In a move to save salary cap space, the Kansas City Chiefs release OLB Tamba Hali and WR Dwayne Bowe.  Both sign with divisional teams.
• For the first time since 1991, Chicago's United Center simultaneously hosts both the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.  The Bulls lose the series 4-1 to Golden State, and the Blackhawks claim their third Cup in six years by beating the Bruins in Game 7.  Steph Curry is the Finals MVP while Patrick Kane takes the Conn Smyth after tallying his 7 points vs Boston alone.
• The Philadelphia 76ers select Jahlil Okafor from Duke with the first overall selection the NBA draft.  The Minnesota Timberwolves trade up to #2 and select Kentucky big man Karl-Anthony Towns.
• Ohio State and Michigan both nab top 5 recruiting classes for the upcoming football season

July

• Former Cavs F Kevin Love signs a max deal with the New York Knicks.  The Chicago Bulls extend surprise SG Jimmy Butler's contract, paying him $14 million per year.
• The National League defeats the American League 11-8 in the All-Star game, securing home field advantage in the World Series.
• The Philadelphia Phillies trade Chase Utley and Cole Hamels to the Boston Red Sox.
• In an episode of Hard Knocks, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers jokes with a rookie free agent that he will give him another pouty face if he runs the wrong route again.
• The prize of the NHL unrestricted free agent class, D Mike Green, signs with the Red Wings.

August

• In a waiver deal, SP Mark Buehrle is traded by the Blue Jays to his hometown St. Louis Cardinals.  Buehrle will retire at the season's end.
• George Karl comes out of retirement to take a front office job with the 76ers.

September

• Jim Harbaugh's debut at Michigan is a success as the Wolverines route a Div 1-AA team on opening day.
• The defending Super Bowl champion Packers open up the regular season with a loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks.
• Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner are the winning pitchers in MLB's Wild Card playoffs.  They combine to allow 3 runs and strike out 21 batters.
• Titan's QB Jay Cutler follows up his 4 TD, 360-yard game with a 177-yard, 0TD and 2 INT performance on Thursday Night Football.

October

• Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, the NHL's two highest paid players, open the season with a goal and an assist each in a win over the Montreal Canadians.
• The St. Louis Cardinals defeat the Tigers to win the World Series in 5 games.
• Johnny Manziel, who won the Browns' starting QB job in training camp, is benched after throwing 3 INTs in the first half of a game against Pittsburgh.

November

• T-Wolves sensation Andrew Wiggins scores a career high 50 points against the team that drafted--the Cavaliers.
• Heat SG Dwayne Wade has surgery on an injured foot and misses the remainder of the season.
• Ndamukong Suh is suspended two games for a late hit on QB Teddy Bridgewater.  His appeal is upheld.  Bridgewater misses a month with a concussion.
• The New York Mets acquire CF Josh Hamilton from the Angels.

December

• Jeff Samardzija signs a multi-year contract with the San Diego Padres at the GM's winter meetings.
• Odell Beckham Jr. establishes himself as the league's best WR, leading the league in yards (1506), yards per catch (18.0), and touchdowns (16).
• The Charger's Melvin Gordon is the clear favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award.
• The Big 12 is shutout of the NCAA football playoffs for the second year in a row.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions enter the playoffs as the #1 overall seeds in each conference, are the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.
• The Carolina Panthers fire coach Ron Rivera following a 6-10 season.